Prediction Accuracy: October 2026
Every Best Pick and Value Analysis of the month, graded against the final result. Hits and misses count alike; void matches are left out.
Month to date, graded up to 28 Oct 2026. Final from the 2nd of next month.
Hit rate in October 2026
Best Picks
The single highest-conviction selection per fixture, across all markets.
+0.7 pts vs September 2026
Value Analysis
Selections where the model's probability diverges most from consensus market pricing.
+8.0 pts vs September 2026
Compared to guessing
An accuracy figure means nothing on its own. The only useful question is what a naive rule would have scored on exactly the same matches.
Measured across every graded fixture, not a selected subset. Home advantage is why the naive rule scores as well as it does; the gap above it is what the model contributes. n = 8,007.
Day by day in October 2026
Each line is a seven-day rolling average of settled selections, with a node marking the days behind it. Days with nothing settled break the line rather than being bridged across.
| Date | Best Picks | Value Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| 01.10.2026 | 74.9% | 58.5% |
| 02.10.2026 | 73.9% | 56.8% |
| 03.10.2026 | 72.7% | 58.9% |
| 04.10.2026 | 71.3% | 54.2% |
| 05.10.2026 | 71.3% | 51.9% |
| 06.10.2026 | 70.3% | 53.3% |
| 07.10.2026 | 70.5% | 53.3% |
| 08.10.2026 | 71.0% | 54.2% |
| 09.10.2026 | 72.5% | 59.2% |
| 10.10.2026 | 73.3% | 54.8% |
| 11.10.2026 | 74.1% | 54.9% |
| 12.10.2026 | 73.5% | 57.7% |
| 13.10.2026 | 73.6% | 57.0% |
| 14.10.2026 | 73.7% | 56.8% |
| 15.10.2026 | 73.8% | 57.8% |
| 16.10.2026 | 73.5% | 60.8% |
| 17.10.2026 | 72.5% | 67.7% |
| 18.10.2026 | 73.1% | 68.9% |
| 19.10.2026 | 73.3% | 68.4% |
| 20.10.2026 | 74.1% | 68.7% |
| 21.10.2026 | 73.7% | 69.8% |
| 22.10.2026 | 73.7% | 68.0% |
| 23.10.2026 | 73.8% | 67.7% |
| 24.10.2026 | 74.4% | 67.6% |
| 25.10.2026 | 73.2% | 67.7% |
| 26.10.2026 | 73.4% | 68.9% |
| 27.10.2026 | 73.0% | 68.9% |
| 28.10.2026 | 73.2% | 69.1% |
Accuracy by competition in October 2026
The competitions with the most graded Best Picks this month, each with at least 20.
| Competition | Best Picks | Value Analysis |
|---|---|---|
 USA: Major League Soccer | 76.2%48 of 63 correct | 55.3%21 of 38 correct |
 England: League One | 81.5%44 of 54 correct | 91.7%11 of 12 correct |
 Argentina: Primera Nacional | 64.8%35 of 54 correct | 66.7%2 of 3 correct |
| England: FA Cup | 66.0%35 of 53 correct | - |
| England: League Two | 75.5%37 of 49 correct | 58.3%7 of 12 correct |
| USA: USL Championship | 85.1%40 of 47 correct | 0.0%0 of 1 correct |
| England: Championship | 63.0%29 of 46 correct | 68.8%11 of 16 correct |
 Brazil: Serie B | 60.9%28 of 46 correct | 70.0%7 of 10 correct |
| England: National League - South | 81.4%35 of 43 correct | 0.0%0 of 2 correct |
 China: League Two | 79.1%34 of 43 correct | 100.0%1 of 1 correct |
Are the probabilities honest?
This is the test that matters. We group every match-result forecast by the probability we published, then plot what actually happened. A calibrated model sits on the diagonal.
What this chart coversMatch result across every graded fixture, not just selected picks - a selected subset could not test calibration honestly. Buckets holding too few fixtures to plot are merged into the end points, and point size scales with sample. Vertical bars are 95% intervals: a thin bucket is an uncertain reading, not a precise miss.
Brier score: 0.1957Mean squared error between published probability and outcome. Lower is better; 0.25 is what you would score by predicting 50% on everything.
Calibration by probability bin
| Probability band | Probability we published | How often it actually happened | 95% interval | Fixtures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05-0.20 | 14.8% | 12.7% | 11.6% – 13.9% | 3223 |
| 0.20-0.25 | 22.9% | 21.7% | 20.4% – 22.9% | 4267 |
| 0.25-0.30 | 27.3% | 26.3% | 25.2% – 27.5% | 5334 |
| 0.30-0.35 | 32.3% | 32.8% | 31.0% – 34.6% | 2599 |
| 0.35-0.40 | 37.5% | 37.5% | 35.5% – 39.6% | 2103 |
| 0.40-0.45 | 42.4% | 44.4% | 42.1% – 46.7% | 1726 |
| 0.45-0.50 | 47.4% | 48.6% | 46.0% – 51.3% | 1371 |
| 0.50-0.55 | 52.4% | 55.1% | 52.0% – 58.2% | 1003 |
| 0.55-0.60 | 57.3% | 61.8% | 58.4% – 65.1% | 809 |
| 0.60-0.65 | 62.3% | 64.3% | 60.2% – 68.1% | 565 |
| 0.65-0.70 | 67.4% | 72.4% | 68.1% – 76.4% | 442 |
| 0.70-0.75 | 72.3% | 75.8% | 70.4% – 80.6% | 265 |
| 0.75-0.80 | 77.3% | 79.8% | 72.9% – 85.2% | 163 |
| 0.80-0.95 | 85.0% | 84.8% | 78.2% – 89.6% | 151 |
Interval is the 95% range the observed figure could take at that sample size. Narrower means more matches in the bin.
Which markets the picks came from
A hit rate across a mixed basket is not the same claim as a hit rate on match result alone. These are the six most-used markets in each basket, with the remainder grouped, so you can judge both headline figures for yourself.
Best Picks
- Home Win or Draw46.3% of picksn = 2,321
- Draw or Away Win20.7% of picksn = 1,039
- Home Win17.1% of picksn = 857
- Away Win6.2% of picksn = 309
- Over 1.5 Goals6.0% of picksn = 299
- Over 2.5 Goals3.4% of picksn = 170
- Other markets (2)0.5% of picksn = 22
Value Analysis
- Home Win51.4% of picksn = 399
- Home Cards Under 2.510.3% of picksn = 80
- Away Cards Under 2.56.0% of picksn = 47
- Corners Over 8.55.9% of picksn = 46
- Corners Under 10.54.4% of picksn = 34
- Away Cards Over 1.53.3% of picksn = 26
- Other markets (20)18.7% of picksn = 145
51 void matches were excluded from these figures.
Monthly reports
- October 2026In progress
- September 2026
- August 2026
- July 2026
- June 2026
October 2026 accuracy report: the figures
In October 2026, 3671 of 5017 Best Picks were correct: a hit rate of 73.2%. Value Analysis was right in 513 of 777 matches (66.0%). That is 0.7 points more than in September 2026. These are month-to-date figures up to 28 Oct 2026; the report becomes final on the 2nd of next month.
On match result, the model was right in 52.4% of 8007 matches, against 44.4% for always picking the home team. Among competitions with at least 20 graded Best Picks, USL Championship had the highest hit rate: 85.1% of 47.
Each Best Pick and Value Analysis is graded on the 90-minute result; nothing is removed once the outcome is known, and void matches are excluded. The all-time record and the method are on the Accuracy page.