Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu Prediction

Albirex Niigata
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Sagan Tosu
Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata 21/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.29
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-6.7%
Albirex Niigata Rest
4 days
Sagan Tosu Rest
4 days

Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu: result, form and history

Albirex Niigata beat Sagan Tosu 2-1 in the J2 League on 21 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Sagan Tosu had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Albirex Niigata.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 4 previous meetings averaged 3.5 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
29%3.27
X
28%3.20
2
43%2.13
Double Chance
1X
57%1.64
X2
71%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.85
No
48%1.84
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 1.34 = 2.51
Over 1.5
69%1.36
Over 2.5
45%2.10
Over 3.5
26%3.70
Under 1.5
31%2.97
Under 2.5
55%1.65
Under 3.5
74%1.23
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

11'S. Nagasawa
24'M. MoraesAssist: M. Sekiguchi
46'R. Hyon INR. Shiohama out
46'S. Nagasawa INY. Imazu out
52'M. Sekiguchi
63'T. Takahashi INH. Goto out
63'M. Yoshida INK. Yoshino out
71'M. Moraes INK. Kuwayama out
75'K. Yamauchi INPark Ho-Min out
77'T. Osawa INK. Kasai out
77'Y. Wakatsuki INC. Konagaya out
80'K. Kuwayama
83'H. GotoAssist: K. Abe
89'K. Shimabuku INM. Sato out
89'M. Sekiguchi INM. Fitzgerald out

Team Comparison

Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
1473Elo Rating 1486
1.64Attack 1.27
1.22Defense 1.76
64%Hit Rate 54%

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend75% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.7 in second half)
Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata1Wins · 25%
Draws125%
Sagan TosuSagan Tosu2Wins · 50%
3.5Avg Goals
75%Both teams scored3 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

J1 League06/07/2024
Albirex NiigataSagan Tosu
34
J1 League24/02/2024
Sagan TosuAlbirex Niigata
12
J1 League21/10/2023
Albirex NiigataSagan Tosu
11
J1 League20/05/2023
Sagan TosuAlbirex Niigata
20

Recent Form

Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
5W2D3L
17/10/2026
Oita TrinitaAlbirex Niigata
51
L
11/10/2026
Shonan BellmareAlbirex Niigata
11
D
03/10/2026
Albirex NiigataTokushima Vortis
21
W
29/09/2026
Matsumoto YamagaAlbirex Niigata
10
L
26/09/2026
Blaublitz AkitaAlbirex Niigata
22
D
19/09/2026
Albirex NiigataJubilo Iwata
21
W
13/09/2026
Albirex NiigataMontedio Yamagata
10
W
06/09/2026
Yokohama FCAlbirex Niigata
50
L
02/09/2026
Thespakusatsu GunmaAlbirex Niigata
12
W
29/08/2026
IwakiAlbirex Niigata
23
W
Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
5W0D5L
17/10/2026
Sagan TosuOmiya Ardija
21
W
14/10/2026
Sagan TosuAvispa Fukuoka
21
W
10/10/2026
Sagan TosuFujieda MYFC
10
W
04/10/2026
Blaublitz AkitaSagan Tosu
10
L
29/09/2026
Sagan TosuTokyo Verdy
2111
W
26/09/2026
Montedio YamagataSagan Tosu
20
L
23/09/2026
Vissel KobeSagan Tosu
10
L
19/09/2026
Sagan TosuIwaki
13
L
12/09/2026
ImabariSagan Tosu
10
L
05/09/2026
Sagan TosuTegevajaro Miyazaki
20
W

League Table

J2 League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata1592422:24-229WWLWW
2Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama1584327:14+1328DWWWW
3Yokohama FCYokohama FC1584328:17+1128DDWLW
4Omiya ArdijaOmiya Ardija1576227:18+927WWLDL
5Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai1583423:14+927WLWWW
6Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki1575324:16+826WDWWW
7Consadole SapporoConsadole Sapporo1572621:19+223WWWWW
8Oita TrinitaOita Trinita1557318:12+622WLLDW
9Jubilo IwataJubilo Iwata1564518:16+222WDDWW
10Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare1557315:14+122WLDDL
11IwakiIwaki1562724:22+220LDLLW
12Sagan TosuSagan Tosu1562715:17-220WDDWW
13Montedio YamagataMontedio Yamagata1561814:14019LDLLW
14Blaublitz AkitaBlaublitz Akita1545616:17-117LWWLL
15Tokushima VortisTokushima Vortis1552811:15-417LLDLW
16Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC1537517:17016DDLDW
17Vanraure HachinoheVanraure Hachinohe1542911:25-1414LLLWL
18Tochigi CityTochigi City1533921:28-712DWLWL
19ImabariImabari1533916:31-1512WLWLL
20Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu1533911:29-1812LWWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata1522:2429
2Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama1527:1428
3Yokohama FCYokohama FC1528:1728
4Omiya ArdijaOmiya Ardija1527:1827
5Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai1523:1427
6Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki1524:1626
7Consadole SapporoConsadole Sapporo1521:1923
8Oita TrinitaOita Trinita1518:1222
9Jubilo IwataJubilo Iwata1518:1622
10Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare1515:1422
11IwakiIwaki1524:2220
12Sagan TosuSagan Tosu1515:1720
13Montedio YamagataMontedio Yamagata1514:1419
14Blaublitz AkitaBlaublitz Akita1516:1717
15Tokushima VortisTokushima Vortis1511:1517
16Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC1517:1716
17Vanraure HachinoheVanraure Hachinohe1511:2514
18Tochigi CityTochigi City1521:2812
19ImabariImabari1516:3112
20Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu1511:2912
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About the Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Albirex Niigata and Sagan Tosu in the J2 League table

In the J2 League table, Albirex Niigata are 1st and Sagan Tosu 12th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Albirex Niigata 22-24, Sagan Tosu 15-17. The full standings are on the J2 League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.