AraguaĆ­na vs Nacional AM Prediction

AraguaĆ­na
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Nacional AM
21/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.48
SignalGOODModel36%SurpriseHighGap+3.1%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.37
SignalHIGHModel26%SurpriseHighGap+11.3%
AraguaĆ­na Rest
7 days
Nacional AM Rest
7 days

AraguaĆ­na vs Nacional AM: result, form and history

Nacional AM beat AraguaĆ­na 1-0 in the Serie D on 21 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%3.00
X
23%2.79
2
29%2.45
Double Chance
1X
71%1.48
X2
53%1.31
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.85
No
49%1.79
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.55 + 1.26 = 2.81
Over 1.5
77%1.37
Over 2.5
54%2.21
Over 3.5
32%3.80
Under 1.5
23%2.66
Under 2.5
46%1.58
Under 3.5
68%1.20
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

50'Erick Varao
90+4'Alan Calbergue

Team Comparison

AraguaĆ­naAraguaĆ­na
Nacional AMNacional AM
1554Elo Rating 1597
2.23Attack 0.99
2.13Defense 2.10
19%Hit Rate 23%

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals

Game State Tendencies

AraguaĆ­naAraguaĆ­na
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.9 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Nacional AMNacional AM
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

AraguaĆ­naAraguaĆ­na
5W3D2L
14/06/2026
AraguaĆ­naGalvez
90
W
31/05/2026
GuaporƩAraguaƭna
32
L
24/05/2026
AraguaĆ­naPorto Velho
11
D
17/05/2026
IndependĆŖnciaAraguaĆ­na
10
L
11/05/2026
HumaitƔAraguaƭna
07
W
03/05/2026
AraguaĆ­naHumaitĆ”
60
W
26/04/2026
AraguaĆ­naIndependĆŖncia
11
D
19/04/2026
Porto VelhoAraguaĆ­na
12
W
12/04/2026
AraguaƭnaGuaporƩ
11
D
05/04/2026
GalvezAraguaĆ­na
12
W
Nacional AMNacional AM
4W2D4L
14/06/2026
Nacional AMMonte Roraima
31
W
31/05/2026
Manaus FCNacional AM
11
D
29/05/2026
Nacional AMPaysandu
24
L
23/05/2026
GASNacional AM
01
W
21/05/2026
PaysanduNacional AM
10
L
16/05/2026
Nacional AMManauara
01
L
10/05/2026
Sao RaimundoNacional AM
02
W
03/05/2026
Nacional AMSao Raimundo
00
D
25/04/2026
ManauaraNacional AM
42
L
19/04/2026
Nacional AMGAS
32
W

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sao Jose
Seeded
Goiatuba EC
Seeded
Nacional AM
Seeded
CSA
Seeded
Sao Jose
Seeded
Goiatuba EC
Seeded
Nacional AM
Seeded
CSA
Seeded
Sao Jose
Seeded
Goiatuba EC
Seeded
Nacional AM
Seeded
CSA
Seeded
Sao Jose
Seeded
Goiatuba EC
Seeded
Nacional AM
Seeded
CSA
Seeded
Sao Jose
Seeded
Goiatuba EC
Seeded
Nacional AM
Seeded
CSA
Seeded

League Table

Serie D 2026

Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ManauaraManauara1064013:5+822WWDWD
2Nacional AMNacional AM1062215:9+620WDWLW
3Sao RaimundoSao Raimundo1034310:7+313LWDLL
4Monte RoraimaMonte Roraima1024411:14-310LLDWW
5Manaus FCManaus FC102448:13-510LDDWL
6GASGAS101278:17-95WLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1ManauaraManauara1013:522
2Nacional AMNacional AM1015:920
3Sao RaimundoSao Raimundo1010:713
4Monte RoraimaMonte Roraima1011:1410
5Manaus FCManaus FC108:1310
6GASGAS108:175

Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1GuaporƩGuaporƩ1064019:9+1022DWWDW
2Porto VelhoPorto Velho1053233:9+2418DWDDW
3AraguaĆ­naAraguaĆ­na1053231:9+2218WLDLW
4IndependĆŖnciaIndependĆŖncia1043317:10+715DWWWL
5GalvezGalvez1031614:31-1710LLLWL
6HumaitƔHumaitƔ1000104:50-460DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1GuaporƩGuaporƩ1019:922
2Porto VelhoPorto Velho1033:918
3AraguaĆ­naAraguaĆ­na1031:918
4IndependĆŖnciaIndependĆŖncia1017:1015
5GalvezGalvez1014:3110
6HumaitƔHumaitƔ104:500
Promotion

About the AraguaĆ­na vs Nacional AM forecast

As a knockout tie in the Serie D, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Serie D

More Serie D fixtures and forecasts are on the Serie D Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

AraguaĆ­na and Nacional AM have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.