Barakaldo vs Real Avilés Prediction

Barakaldo
3-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Real Avilés
Campo de Lasesarre, Barakaldo·M. Pozueta Rodriguez 27/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalGOODModel47%SurpriseMediumGap-9.1%
Barakaldo Rest
7 days
Real Avilés Rest
7 days

Barakaldo vs Real Avilés: the result in context

Barakaldo and Real Avilés drew 3-3 in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on 27 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%1.86
X
27%3.42
2
25%3.70
Double Chance
1X
75%1.22
X2
52%1.83
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

4'Goal Disallowed - video review
17'S. Mayo
21'I. Alday INY. Rodriguez out
30'A. SantamariaAssist: C. Montes
33'M. Ruiz
33'B. CayargaAssist: A. Santamaria
43'Y. Rodriguez
53'C. Mattheus
54'A. Raton
55'C. Mattheus INX. Fernandez out
55'X. Sola INE. Mateos out
55'I. Jimenez INOkolo out
59'B. CayargaAssist: C. Montes
63'S. Mayo INP. Doncel out
66'J. Huidobro INA. Pena out
66'A. Muguruza INS. Camus out
71'B. Cayarga INN. Poquet out
71'B. Abelenda INNeskes out
71'M. Artetxe INA. Carmona out
77'E. MateosAssist: P. Trigueros
86'X. FernandezAssist: A. Troncho
89'A. Pena
90'C. Montes

Team Comparison

BarakaldoBarakaldo
Real AvilésReal Avilés
1539Elo Rating 1486
1.05Attack 1.93
2.22Defense 1.44
23%Hit Rate 42%

Game State Tendencies

BarakaldoBarakaldo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
Real AvilésReal Avilés
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

BarakaldoBarakaldo1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
Real AvilésReal Avilés1Wins · 50%
4.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

Primera División RFEF - Group 117/05/2026
Real AvilésBarakaldo
14
Primera División RFEF - Group 107/12/2025
BarakaldoReal Avilés
12

Recent Form

BarakaldoBarakaldo
4W2D4L
19/09/2026
Racing FerrolBarakaldo
10
L
11/09/2026
BarakaldoExtremadura 1924
10
W
05/09/2026
CD CoriaBarakaldo
41
L
30/08/2026
BarakaldoCultural Leonesa
00
D
14/08/2026
PortugaleteBarakaldo
20
L
23/05/2026
BarakaldoCelta de Vigo II
11
D
17/05/2026
Real AvilésBarakaldo
14
W
09/05/2026
BarakaldoMérida AD
20
W
01/05/2026
TenerifeBarakaldo
20
L
25/04/2026
BarakaldoLugo
30
W
Real AvilésReal Avilés
3W4D3L
19/09/2026
CD CoriaReal Avilés
11
D
12/09/2026
Real AvilésUnionistas de Salamanca
31
W
06/09/2026
Athletic Club IIReal Avilés
21
L
28/08/2026
Real AvilésPontevedra
01
L
21/08/2026
Real AvilésSporting Gijón II
42
W
15/08/2026
MosconiaReal Avilés
02
W
13/08/2026
Racing FerrolReal Avilés
11
D
08/08/2026
Racing Santander IIReal Avilés
21
L
05/08/2026
Cultural LeonesaReal Avilés
11
D
01/08/2026
PonferradinaReal Avilés
11
D

League Table

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LugoLugo971116:8+822LWWWW
2UD LogroñésUD Logroñés962120:12+820WDLWW
3Racing FerrolRacing Ferrol95139:7+216LWWWL
4CacereñoCacereño94328:5+315WLDLD
5MirandesMirandes942312:10+214WLDLW
6PontevedraPontevedra942312:11+114WWLLD
7Extremadura 1924Extremadura 1924941416:10+613WDWWL
8Real UniónReal Unión934219:14+513WDDDL
9Mérida ADMérida AD941415:12+313DWWWL
10PonferradinaPonferradina93426:6013DDLWD
11Athletic Club IIAthletic Club II933314:12+212LLDLW
12ZamoraZamora933310:9+112LDDWW
13Cultural LeonesaCultural Leonesa933310:9+112LDWLD
14Real AvilésReal Avilés932415:13+211LWWLD
15BarakaldoBarakaldo92438:10-210DWLDD
16Unionistas de SalamancaUnionistas de Salamanca931512:15-310WLDWL
17CD CoriaCD Coria923412:16-49DWLLD
18Deportivo La Coruña IIDeportivo La Coruña II92258:16-88LLLLW
19UD OurenseUD Ourense91263:15-125LLWDD
20Arenas GetxoArenas Getxo91267:22-155WLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1LugoLugo916:822
2UD LogroñésUD Logroñés920:1220
3Racing FerrolRacing Ferrol99:716
4CacereñoCacereño98:515
5MirandesMirandes912:1014
6PontevedraPontevedra912:1114
7Extremadura 1924Extremadura 1924916:1013
8Real UniónReal Unión919:1413
9Mérida ADMérida AD915:1213
10PonferradinaPonferradina96:613
11Athletic Club IIAthletic Club II914:1212
12ZamoraZamora910:912
13Cultural LeonesaCultural Leonesa910:912
14Real AvilésReal Avilés915:1311
15BarakaldoBarakaldo98:1010
16Unionistas de SalamancaUnionistas de Salamanca912:1510
17CD CoriaCD Coria912:169
18Deportivo La Coruña IIDeportivo La Coruña II98:168
19UD OurenseUD Ourense93:155
20Arenas GetxoArenas Getxo97:225
PromotionRelegation

About the Barakaldo vs Real Avilés forecast

The forecasts for this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Barakaldo and Real Avilés in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table

Real Avilés and Barakaldo are close in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table, 14th and 15th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Barakaldo 8-10, Real Avilés 15-13. The full standings are on the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Avilés have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Barakaldo and Real Avilés have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.