Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

04/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.62
SignalGOODModel41%SurpriseMediumGap+11.7%
Beijing Guoan Rest
6 days
Shandong Luneng Rest
7 days

Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng: the result in context

Beijing Guoan beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 in the Super League on 4 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.2 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 4.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%1.75
X
24%4.10
2
32%3.90
Double Chance
1X
68%1.22
X2
56%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.37
No
40%2.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.55 + 1.52 = 3.07
Over 1.5
81%1.10
Over 2.5
55%1.35
Over 3.5
37%1.93
Under 1.5
19%6.50
Under 2.5
45%3.00
Under 3.5
63%1.82
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 3.9 = 8.6
Over 8.5
58%1.39
Over 9.5
48%1.66
Over 10.5
35%2.07
Under 8.5
42%2.75
Under 9.5
52%2.10
Under 10.5
65%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.3 = 4.3
Over 3.5
58%-
Over 4.5
37%-
Under 3.5
42%-
Under 4.5
63%-

Match Events

23'Zheng Zheng
36'B. Nkololo
36'Chen Pu INPeng Xiao out
46'He Yupeng INYue Tze-Nam out
58'B. Nkololo INCao Yongjing out
61'Zhang Yuning INYang Liyu out
63'Huang Zhengyu
74'SerginhoAssist: Cao Yongjing
75'Xie Wenneng INR. Merkies out
81'Lin LiangmingAssist: Cao Yongjing
85'F. Abreu INChi Zhongguo out
86'Bai Yang INDeng Jiefu out
89'V. Qazaishvili INJ. Lu out
89'Huang Zhengyu INMemet Imran out

Match Stats

Beijing GuoanShandong Luneng
76%Ball Possession24%
12Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
39Total Shots3
13Shots on Goal2
16Shots off Goal1
29Shots Inside Box2
10Shots Outside Box1
10Blocked Shots0
9Fouls13
0Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves9
560Total Passes182
511Passes Accurate115
91%Pass Accuracy63%

Team Comparison

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan
Shandong LunengShandong Luneng
1768Elo Rating 1647
2.24Attack 2.85
1.77Defense 1.41
73%Hit Rate 50%
12.6Shots per Game 16.2
4.9Shots on Target 6.8
5.0Corners per Game 3.6
1.9Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+122 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.07 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Shandong LunengShandong Luneng
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 1.2 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan2Wins · 20%
Draws440%
Shandong LunengShandong Luneng4Wins · 40%
3.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Super League14/03/2026
Shandong LunengBeijing Guoan
21
Super League31/08/2025
Shandong LunengBeijing Guoan
60
Super League19/04/2025
Beijing GuoanShandong Luneng
61
Super League30/06/2024
Beijing GuoanShandong Luneng
20
Super League09/03/2024
Shandong LunengBeijing Guoan
00
FA Cup31/08/2023
Beijing GuoanShandong Luneng
11
Super League30/07/2023
Shandong LunengBeijing Guoan
30
Super League29/04/2023
Beijing GuoanShandong Luneng
00
Super League31/12/2022
Shandong LunengBeijing Guoan
30
Super League09/10/2022
Beijing GuoanShandong Luneng
33

Recent Form

Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan
5W3D2L
27/06/2026
Beijing GuoanWuhan Three Towns
10
W
19/06/2026
Guangzhou E-PowerBeijing Guoan
12
W
30/05/2026
Chongqing Tongliang LongBeijing Guoan
23
W
23/05/2026
Beijing GuoanHenan Jianye
12
L
19/05/2026
Qingdao Youth IslandBeijing Guoan
11
D
15/05/2026
Beijing GuoanQingdao Jonoon
42
W
10/05/2026
Beijing GuoanSHANGHAI SIPG
22
D
06/05/2026
Beijing GuoanDalian Zhixing
30
W
02/05/2026
Yunnan YukunBeijing Guoan
33
D
25/04/2026
Beijing GuoanTianjin Teda
24
L
Shandong LunengShandong Luneng
5W2D3L
27/06/2026
Shenyang UrbanShandong Luneng
15
W
20/06/2026
Guangxi HengchenShandong Luneng
05
W
30/05/2026
Chengdu Better CityShandong Luneng
10
L
24/05/2026
Shandong LunengWuhan Three Towns
33
D
20/05/2026
Hangzhou GreentownShandong Luneng
41
L
16/05/2026
Shandong LunengChongqing Tongliang Long
31
W
10/05/2026
Sichuan JiuniuShandong Luneng
12
W
05/05/2026
Shandong LunengShanghai Shenhua
41
W
01/05/2026
Shandong LunengQingdao Youth Island
11
D
26/04/2026
Qingdao JonoonShandong Luneng
41
L

League Table

Super League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Chengdu Better CityChengdu Better City29157751:35+1652LLLDW
2Dalian ZhixingDalian Zhixing291541046:43+349WWWWD
3Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan291410557:36+2147WWWDD
4Shandong LunengShandong Luneng29155957:47+1044WWDDW
5SHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG29138850:36+1442WWWDW
6Yunnan YukunYunnan Yukun291171157:60-340DDLWL
7Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island29815632:38-639DLLDD
8Shanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua291451063:50+1337LWWWL
9Chongqing Tongliang LongChongqing Tongliang Long29812931:34-336WDDLD
10Hangzhou GreentownHangzhou Greentown291161251:54-334WLLWL
11Sichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu29951539:51-1232WLDDL
12Tianjin TedaTianjin Teda291181039:35+431LWWWW
13Shenyang UrbanShenyang Urban29851641:52-1129LWDLL
14Henan JianyeHenan Jianye298101138:42-428LLDDD
15Wuhan Three TownsWuhan Three Towns295121244:55-1122LLDLD
16Qingdao JonoonQingdao Jonoon29632034:62-2814LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Chengdu Better CityChengdu Better City2951:3552
2Dalian ZhixingDalian Zhixing2946:4349
3Beijing GuoanBeijing Guoan2957:3647
4Shandong LunengShandong Luneng2957:4744
5SHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG2950:3642
6Yunnan YukunYunnan Yukun2957:6040
7Qingdao Youth IslandQingdao Youth Island2932:3839
8Shanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua2963:5037
9Chongqing Tongliang LongChongqing Tongliang Long2931:3436
10Hangzhou GreentownHangzhou Greentown2951:5434
11Sichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu2939:5132
12Tianjin TedaTianjin Teda2939:3531
13Shenyang UrbanShenyang Urban2941:5229
14Henan JianyeHenan Jianye2938:4228
15Wuhan Three TownsWuhan Three Towns2944:5522
16Qingdao JonoonQingdao Jonoon2934:6214
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng forecast

The forecasts for this Super League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in the Super League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Beijing Guoan are 3rd in the Super League, 3 points ahead of Shandong Luneng in 4th. League goal record so far: Beijing Guoan 57-36, Shandong Luneng 57-47. The full standings are on the Super League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Shandong Luneng have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.