Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest Prediction

Groupama Aréna, Budapest 25/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel70%SurpriseMediumGap-5.1%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Ferencvarosi TC Rest
3 days
MTK Budapest Rest
8 days

Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest: result, form and history

Ferencvarosi TC beat MTK Budapest 5-0 in the NB I on 25 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Ferencvarosi TC have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 4.0 goals a game. Ferencvarosi TC tend to win more corners, 9.1 a game to 3.6 for MTK Budapest.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
67%1.40
X
19%4.75
2
14%6.00
Double Chance
1X
86%1.08
X2
33%2.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.55
No
42%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.13 + 0.89 = 3.02
Over 1.5
83%1.10
Over 2.5
66%1.38
Over 3.5
44%2.00
Under 1.5
17%6.00
Under 2.5
34%2.84
Under 3.5
56%1.78
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

5'Habib MaïgaFoul
15'Habib MaïgaAssist: Carlos Eduardo Lopes Cruz
17'Bamidele Isa YusufAssist: Veljko Birmančević
20'Habib MaïgaAssist: Attila Osváth
40'Ilia Beriashvili INBenedek Varju out
45'Gyorgy Komaromi INÁ Nyers out
48'Penalty confirmedToon Raemaekers
52'Kristoffer Zachariassen(Penalty)
58'Habib Maïga INÁdám Nagy out
58'Bamidele Isa Yusuf INLenny Joseph out
60'Mihály KataFoul
61'Mariano GómezFoul
68'marius corbuAssist: Kristoffer Zachariassen
72'Ádám Madarász INÁdám Gyula Bagi out
73'Kristoffer Zachariassen INJonathan Levi out
73'Á. Zubor INIstván Bognár out
73'Mark Kerezsi Zalan INKristof Hinora out
73'Adrian Zeljkovic INDániel Varga out
81'Veljko Birmančević INDaniel Arzani out
90'Carlos Eduardo Lopes CruzFoul

Lineups

Ferencvarosi TC
4-2-3-1Coach: B. Borbely
MTK Budapest
4-4-2Coach: Máté Pinezits
Avg rating7.21
Avg rating5.89
D. Dibusz6.890D. Dibusz
A. Osváth7.314A. Osváth
T. Raemaekers7.628T. Raemaekers
M. Gómez6.24M. Gómez
Cadu7.220Cadu
H. Maïga8.980H. Maïga
7272Á. Madarász
K. Zachariassen7.716K. Zachariassen
M. Corbu8.217M. Corbu
V. Birmančević7.27V. Birmančević
B. Yusuf7.911B. Yusuf
4343B. Varga
V. Armalas5.126V. Armalas
I. Beriashvili5.64I. Beriashvili
S. Radić5.555S. Radić
M. Timoteus5.713M. Timoteus
G. Jurek5.611G. Jurek
M. Kata6.26M. Kata
Adrian Zeljković5.980A. Zeljković
G. Komáromi5.977G. Komáromi
Zalán Márk Kerezsi6.420Z. Márk Kerezsi
A. G. Zubor6.38A. G. Zubor

Ferencvarosi TC Substitutes

15D. Arzani81'for Veljko Birmančević6.7
5G. Zohoré
1Á. Varga
18Á. Bagi72'replaced by Ádám Madarász6.8
75L. Joseph58'for Bamidele Isa Yusuf7.1
10J. Levi73'for Kristoffer Zachariassen6.9
76K. Lisztes
6Á. Nagy58'for Habib Maïga6.5
54O. Nagy
47C. O'Dowda
63Dániel István Radnóti
88P. Rommens

MTK Budapest Substitutes

9M. Klausz
17K. Hinora73'for Mark Kerezsi Zalan6.0
24T. Fadgyas
5D. Horváth
45D. Varga73'for Adrian Zeljkovic5.6
37Adam Nyers45'for Gyorgy Komaromi6.3
30Sámuel Barnabás Bakó
10I. Bognár73'for Á. Zubor5.9
2B. Varju40'for Ilia Beriashvili5.8

Match Stats

Ferencvarosi TCMTK Budapest
70%Ball Possession30%
10Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards1
24Total Shots4
10Shots on Goal0
8Shots off Goal2
17Shots Inside Box1
7Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots2
12Fouls16
1Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves5
444Total Passes293
361Passes Accurate210
15Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC
MTK BudapestMTK Budapest
1833Elo Rating 1527
3.45Attack 1.68
2.23Defense 0.81
83%Hit Rate 46%
20.2Shots per Game 10.9
6.8Shots on Target 2.9
9.1Corners per Game 3.6
2.6Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+306 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.02 goals
📈BTTS Trend90% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.3 vs 1.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MTK BudapestMTK Budapest
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC8Wins · 80%
Draws220%
MTK BudapestMTK Budapest0Wins · 0%
4.0Avg Goals
90%Both teams scored9 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

NB I23/02/2026
MTK BudapestFerencvarosi TC
13
NB I01/11/2025
Ferencvarosi TCMTK Budapest
41
NB I26/07/2025
MTK BudapestFerencvarosi TC
11
NB I27/04/2025
MTK BudapestFerencvarosi TC
23
Magyar Kupa23/04/2025
Ferencvarosi TCMTK Budapest
31
NB I02/02/2025
Ferencvarosi TCMTK Budapest
00
NB I20/09/2024
MTK BudapestFerencvarosi TC
13
NB I28/04/2024
MTK BudapestFerencvarosi TC
12
NB I06/02/2024
Ferencvarosi TCMTK Budapest
51
NB I30/09/2023
MTK BudapestFerencvarosi TC
16

League Table

NB I 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Gyori ETO FCGyori ETO FC1264221:14+722DWWLW
2Puskas AcademyPuskas Academy1270517:15+221LLWWW
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC1155120:10+1020WWDDD
4Debreceni VSCDebreceni VSC1254321:17+419WWWDL
5UjpestUjpest1253420:17+318WLLDW
6PaksPaks1252522:21+117LWLWW
7VasasVasas1244420:17+316DLLDW
8Budapest HonvedBudapest Honved1134414:17-313WLWDL
9Zalaegerszegi TEZalaegerszegi TE1241716:22-613WDLWL
10Kisvarda FCKisvarda FC1226412:14-212LDDDL
11MTK BudapestMTK Budapest1233616:25-912LLWLL
12NyiregyhazaNyiregyhaza1232713:23-1011LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Gyori ETO FCGyori ETO FC1221:1422
2Puskas AcademyPuskas Academy1217:1521
3Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC1120:1020
4Debreceni VSCDebreceni VSC1221:1719
5UjpestUjpest1220:1718
6PaksPaks1222:2117
7VasasVasas1220:1716
8Budapest HonvedBudapest Honved1114:1713
9Zalaegerszegi TEZalaegerszegi TE1216:2213
10Kisvarda FCKisvarda FC1212:1412
11MTK BudapestMTK Budapest1216:2512
12NyiregyhazaNyiregyhaza1213:2311
Relegation

About the Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest forecast

As a derby, this NB I meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Ferencvarosi TC and MTK Budapest in the NB I table

The table shows a wide gap: Ferencvarosi TC are 3rd in the NB I, while MTK Budapest sit 11th, 8 points behind. League goal record so far: Ferencvarosi TC 20-10, MTK Budapest 16-25. The full standings are on the NB I Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.