Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 21
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.20
SignalHIGHModel71%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Independiente del Valle Rest
2 days
Tecnico Universitario Rest
3 days
Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario: result, form and history
Independiente del Valle beat Tecnico Universitario 3-0 in the Liga Pro on 22 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Tecnico Universitario.
Independiente del Valle have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
180%1.20
X15%5.75
25%12.00
Double Chance
1X95%1.03
X220%4.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes49%2.22
No51%1.57
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.43 + 0.75 = 3.18
Over 1.583%1.17
Over 2.563%1.58
Over 3.541%2.47
Under 1.517%4.35
Under 2.537%2.25
Under 3.559%1.50
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
23'Stiwar MenaArgument
27'Santiago RazzetoArgument
41'Junior SornozaAssist: Arón Rodríguez
59'Mateo CastanoFoul
60'Jonathan Majao INAnthony Castilo out
60'Bagner Delgado INCarlos Estupiñán out
63'Johan BocanegraArgument
66'Ronald Briones INMatías Perello out
66'Djorkaeff Reasco INJuan Angulo out
66'Emerson Pata INHugo Quintana out
72'Daykol RomeroAssist: Hugo Quintana
74'Stiwar Mena INLuis Mario Córdova Mina out
74'Yorlin Arce INJose Caicedo out
77'Matías Perello
79'Goal confirmedMatías Perello
80'Arón Rodríguez INEdwin Quintero out
82'Junior Sornoza INDarwin Guagua out
86'Mateo Castano INMarco Carrasco out
Lineups
Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario
Coach: Bernardo RedinIndependiente del Valle Starting XI
1Aldair Quintana
13Daykol Romero72'
14Mateo Carabajal
5Richard Schunke
19Layan Loor
6Jordy Alcivar
17Arón Rodríguez80'replaced by Edwin Quintero
16Ronald Briones66'replaced by Matías Perello
10Junior SornozaC41'82'replaced by Darwin Guagua
31Emerson Pata66'replaced by Hugo Quintana
99Djorkaeff Reasco66'replaced by Juan Angulo
Avg rating
Tecnico Universitario Starting XI
1Santiago Razzeto27'
23Edwin Mesa
53Rafael Chila
5Stiwar Mena23'74'replaced by Luis Mario Córdova Mina
13Julian AnayaC
85Yorlin Arce74'replaced by Jose Caicedo
15Felipe Castillo
70Mateo Castano59'86'replaced by Marco Carrasco
33Jonathan Majao60'replaced by Anthony Castilo
10Johan Bocanegra63'
25Bagner Delgado60'replaced by Carlos Estupiñán
Avg rating
Independiente del Valle Substitutes
11Matías Perello66'for Ronald Briones77'
28Hugo Quintana66'for Emerson Pata
50Juan Angulo66'for Djorkaeff Reasco
56Edwin Quintero80'for Arón Rodríguez
55Darwin Guagua82'for Junior Sornoza
70Miguel Peralta
15Gustavo Cortez
33Andy Velasco
23Juan Viacava
4Jhon Espinoza
32Jhegson Méndez
52Yandri Vasquez
Tecnico Universitario Substitutes
77Carlos Estupiñán60'for Bagner Delgado
19Anthony Castilo60'for Jonathan Majao
4Luis Mario Córdova Mina74'for Stiwar Mena
16Jose Caicedo74'for Yorlin Arce
67Marco Carrasco86'for Mateo Castano
12Ayrton Morales
30Kener Arce
11Cristopher Arteaga
7Luis Estupiñan
Match Stats
Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario 68%Ball Possession32%
5Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal0
5Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box2
0Blocked Shots2
11Fouls20
2Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves5
592Total Passes268
520Passes Accurate207
88%Pass Accuracy77%
Team Comparison
Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario1793Elo Rating 1401
0.86Attack 0.77
2.44Defense 1.61
36%Hit Rate 17%
11.3Shots per Game 13.2
4.3Shots on Target 3.1
5.9Corners per Game 5.0
1.5Cards per Game 2.7
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+392 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.19 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente del Valle- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
Tecnico Universitario- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente del Valle6Wins · 60%Draws330%
Tecnico Universitario1Wins · 10%
1Wins · 10%2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
22/03/2026Tecnico UniversitarioIndependiente del Valle12
30/08/2025Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario40
11/05/2025Tecnico UniversitarioIndependiente del Valle12
25/08/2024Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario10
21/03/2024Tecnico UniversitarioIndependiente del Valle11
24/09/2023Tecnico UniversitarioIndependiente del Valle22
22/04/2023Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario10
11/10/2022Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario01
15/05/2022Tecnico UniversitarioIndependiente del Valle23
25/09/2021Independiente del ValleTecnico Universitario11
Recent Form
Independiente del Valle9W0D1L
20/07/2026Independiente del Valle
Emelec
16/07/2026Independiente del ValleEmelec61
W
AucasIndependiente del Valle03
W11/07/2026
Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle
09/07/2026Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle14
W
Santo DomingoIndependiente del Valle02
W04/07/2026Independiente del Valle
Manta FC40
W31/05/2026
Guayaquil City FCIndependiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FCIndependiente del Valle24
W28/05/2026Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
Independiente del ValleRosario Central10
W23/05/2026Independiente del Valle
Libertad
Independiente del ValleLibertad23
L20/05/2026Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
Independiente del ValleLibertad Asuncion41
W16/05/2026
MacaraIndependiente del Valle
MacaraIndependiente del Valle03
WTecnico Universitario4W0D6L
19/07/2026Tecnico UniversitarioAucasLibertadTecnico UniversitarioTecnico UniversitarioMacara
Orense SCTecnico Universitario
Tecnico UniversitarioAucas01
L15/07/2026LibertadTecnico Universitario10
L11/07/2026Tecnico UniversitarioMacara02
L07/07/2026Orense SCTecnico Universitario12
W02/06/2026Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
Tecnico UniversitarioBarcelona SC10
W29/05/2026
Cde Juventud ItalianaTecnico Universitario
Cde Juventud ItalianaTecnico Universitario20
L24/05/2026Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
Tecnico UniversitarioLeones del Norte21
W15/05/2026
LDU de QuitoTecnico Universitario
LDU de QuitoTecnico Universitario21
L09/05/2026Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
Tecnico UniversitarioDelfin SC40
W02/05/2026
Deportivo CuencaTecnico Universitario
Deportivo CuencaTecnico Universitario21
LReferee Profile
5.40Cards per match
5.04Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.40 cards a match, 0.31 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.09).
Cards come from 73 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LDLLD |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | WLLDL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | LWLLL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WWDDD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75:35 | +40 | 78 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47:35 | +12 | 63 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53:31 | +22 | 53 | DWLLW |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 37:29 | +8 | 53 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:37 | -1 | 51 | LDLLD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 38:28 | +10 | 48 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 75:35 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 47:35 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 53:31 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 37:29 | 53 |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 36:37 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 38:28 | 48 |
Liga Pro: Relegation Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 30:39 | -9 | 44 | WWDDD |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 39:46 | -7 | 40 | LDLDL |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 42:50 | -8 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 34 | 11 | 3 | 20 | 33:46 | -13 | 36 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 27:40 | -13 | 35 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 22:49 | -27 | 27 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 30:39 | 44 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 39:46 | 40 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 42:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 34 | 33:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 34 | 27:40 | 35 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 22:49 | 27 |
PromotionRelegation
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About the Independiente del Valle vs Tecnico Universitario forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente del Valle and Tecnico Universitario in the Liga Pro table
The table shows a wide gap: Independiente del Valle are 1st in the Liga Pro, while Tecnico Universitario sit 14th, 42 points behind. League goal record so far: Independiente del Valle 73-33, Tecnico Universitario 28-42. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Tecnico Universitario have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.