Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction

21 Kasım Stadium, Mardin·Burak Olcar 15/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-8.7%
Mardin 1969 Rest
3 days
Fatih Karagümrük Rest
4 days

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük: the result in context

Mardin 1969 beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 in the 1. Lig on 15 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.00
X
28%3.31
2
29%3.40
Double Chance
1X
71%1.25
X2
57%1.73
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.75
No
45%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.49 + 1.33 = 2.82
Over 1.5
74%1.28
Over 2.5
50%1.92
Over 3.5
29%3.30
Under 1.5
26%3.30
Under 2.5
50%1.80
Under 3.5
71%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.1 = 9
Over 8.5
53%1.83
Over 9.5
42%2.38
Over 10.5
29%3.30
Under 8.5
47%1.83
Under 9.5
58%1.49
Under 10.5
71%1.25
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.7 = 5.2
Over 3.5
76%-
Over 4.5
59%-
Under 3.5
24%-
Under 4.5
41%-

Match Events

10'Zdravko DimitrovAssist: Olarenwaju Kayode
18'Adem Eren KabakFoul
31'Kerim Alıcı INEray Korkmaz out
38'Tonio TeklićFoul
55'Tonio Teklić INŞahverdi Çetin out
55'Mallik Wilks INEmre Taşdemir out
65'Ramazan Civelek INJ. Esen out
65'Baris Kalayci INTiago Cukur out
72'Đorđe Denić INO. Yıldırım out
73'Olarenwaju Kayode INBerkay Dogan out
80'Manolis Siopis INMarius Tresor Doh out
84'Yaya Onogo INTarık Buğra Kalpaklı out
90'Anil Cinar Foul
90+3'Emre TaşdemirFoul

Lineups

Mardin 1969
4-4-2Coach: Ivaylo Petev
Fatih Karagümrük
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Stanojević
Avg rating6.99
Avg rating6.39
E. Kardeşler6.51E. Kardeşler
K. Alıcı7.127K. Alıcı
M. Şengül7.025M. Şengül
U. Gezer7.615U. Gezer
N. Yardımcı7.13N. Yardımcı
M. Wilks6.647M. Wilks
A. Kabak6.916A. Kabak
T. Teklić6.691T. Teklić
Z. Dimitrov8.210Z. Dimitrov
O. Kayode7.59O. Kayode
Đ. Denić6.38Đ. Denić
M. Silvestri6.41M. Silvestri
M. Sarıkaya6.425M. Sarıkaya
D. Biraschi6.84D. Biraschi
A. Çınar6.628A. Çınar
Candan Baskale6.721C. Baskale
Y. Onogo6.619Y. Onogo
M. Siopis6.320M. Siopis
R. Civelek6.022R. Civelek
E. Akbaba6.25E. Akbaba
Baris Kalayci6.57B. Kalayci
C. Tosun6.69C. Tosun

Mardin 1969 Substitutes

29Ö. Kahveci
70Enes Erol
64B. Doğan73'for Olarenwaju Kayode7.4
11B. Balat
17E. Korkmaz31'for Kerim Alıcı6.9
33E. Taşdemir55'for Mallik Wilks90+3'7.0
77D. Taşkan
45O. Yıldırım72'replaced by Đorđe Denić
7Ş. Çetin55'for Tonio Teklić6.8
19A. Ülük

Fatih Karagümrük Substitutes

23B. Şen
11T. Çukur65'for Baris Kalayci6.1
6R. Yalçın
17Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı84'for Yaya Onogo6.6
27Muhammed Kadioglu
98B. Evli
41J. Esen65'replaced by Ramazan Civelek
14Marius Tresor Doh80'for Manolis Siopis5.9
53Kaan Arda Demir

Match Stats

Mardin 1969Fatih Karagümrük
32%Ball Possession68%
5Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards1
6Total Shots14
1Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal9
5Shots Inside Box6
1Shots Outside Box8
2Blocked Shots3
11Fouls11
1Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves0
260Total Passes566
185Passes Accurate489
11Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Mardin 1969Mardin 1969
Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
1647Elo Rating 1630
1.52Attack 0.79
1.51Defense 2.30
63%Hit Rate 23%
8.0Shots per Game 15.4
2.7Shots on Target 4.3
3.4Corners per Game 3.3
2.2Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Mardin 1969Mardin 1969
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.4 in second half)
Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

Mardin 1969Mardin 1969
5W3D2L
11/10/2026
BursasporMardin 1969
12
W
20/09/2026
Mardin 1969Kayserispor
01
L
13/09/2026
Iğdır FKMardin 1969
10
L
07/09/2026
Mardin 1969Bodrum FK
10
W
02/09/2026
SivassporMardin 1969
22
D
29/08/2026
Mardin 1969Vanspor FK
11
D
23/08/2026
BolusporMardin 1969
03
W
16/08/2026
Mardin 1969Antalyaspor
20
W
08/08/2026
ÜmraniyesporMardin 1969
00
D
09/05/2026
Mardin 1969Muş Sport Klübü
21
W
Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük
4W4D2L
11/10/2026
Fatih KaragümrükMuğlaspor
11
D
19/09/2026
Esenler EroksporFatih Karagümrük
02
W
13/09/2026
Fatih KaragümrükManisa F.K.
11
D
06/09/2026
Batman PetrolsporFatih Karagümrük
43
L
02/09/2026
Fatih KaragümrükKayserispor
11
D
29/08/2026
İstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük
11
D
21/08/2026
Fatih KaragümrükBursaspor
21
W
15/08/2026
Fatih KaragümrükÜmraniyespor
21
W
09/08/2026
Iğdır FKFatih Karagümrük
20
L
16/05/2026
Fatih KaragümrükAlanyaspor
21
W

Referee Profile

Burak Olcar82 matches

4.36Cards per match
4.03Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
25.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Burak Olcar4.36
Other referees4.68

4.36 cards a match, 0.32 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.68).

Cards come from 33 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

1. Lig 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BursasporBursaspor13101229:11+1831WWWWL
2KayserisporKayserispor1393132:9+2330WDDWW
3Iğdır FKIğdır FK1383218:10+827DWWDW
4Mardin 1969Mardin 19691373318:12+624WWLWW
5Batman PetrolsporBatman Petrolspor1372426:23+323LWDWL
6KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü1355325:18+720LLWDW
7AntalyasporAntalyaspor1361619:20-119DLWLW
8Bodrum FKBodrum FK1346316:12+418DWWWL
9MuğlasporMuğlaspor1346318:20-218LWWLD
10Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük1344516:16016LWLLD
11SarıyerSarıyer1344514:18-416LLDLD
12Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor1336415:18-315WLWDW
13BandırmasporBandırmaspor1335517:13+414LLLDW
14ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor1235414:11+314WWLDW
15PendiksporPendikspor1335515:23-814WDLLL
16Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.1334621:23-213WLLDL
17SivassporSivasspor1327416:20-413LLDDW
18Vanspor FKVanspor FK1343614:22-813WWLWL
19İstanbulsporİstanbulspor13121010:33-235LLLLL
20BolusporBoluspor1211105:26-214LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BursasporBursaspor1329:1131
2KayserisporKayserispor1332:930
3Iğdır FKIğdır FK1318:1027
4Mardin 1969Mardin 19691318:1224
5Batman PetrolsporBatman Petrolspor1326:2323
6KeçiörengücüKeçiörengücü1325:1820
7AntalyasporAntalyaspor1319:2019
8Bodrum FKBodrum FK1316:1218
9MuğlasporMuğlaspor1318:2018
10Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük1316:1616
11SarıyerSarıyer1314:1816
12Esenler EroksporEsenler Erokspor1315:1815
13BandırmasporBandırmaspor1317:1314
14ÜmraniyesporÜmraniyespor1214:1114
15PendiksporPendikspor1315:2314
16Manisa F.K.Manisa F.K.1321:2313
17SivassporSivasspor1316:2013
18Vanspor FKVanspor FK1314:2213
19İstanbulsporİstanbulspor1310:335
20BolusporBoluspor125:264
PromotionRelegation

About the Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük forecast

The forecasts for this 1. Lig match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük in the 1. Lig table

In the 1. Lig table, Mardin 1969 are 4th and Fatih Karagümrük 10th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Mardin 1969 18-12, Fatih Karagümrük 16-16. The full standings are on the 1. Lig Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Mardin 1969 have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.