Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Prediction

Motor Lublin
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Jagiellonia
Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin·Tomasz Kwiatkowski, Poland 31/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.44
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap+13.2%
Motor Lublin Rest
5 days
Jagiellonia Rest
6 days

Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia: the result in context

Jagiellonia beat Motor Lublin 2-1 in the Ekstraklasa on 31 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Jagiellonia have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Motor Lublin tend to win more corners, 6.3 a game to 3.4 for Jagiellonia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%2.80
X
23%3.50
2
53%2.30
Double Chance
1X
47%1.57
X2
76%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.54
No
45%2.32
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.5 = 2.69
Over 1.5
74%1.19
Over 2.5
47%1.67
Over 3.5
24%2.57
Under 1.5
26%4.20
Under 2.5
53%2.18
Under 3.5
76%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.2 + 5.4 = 9.5
Over 8.5
62%1.48
Over 9.5
50%1.77
Over 10.5
39%2.20
Under 8.5
38%2.44
Under 9.5
50%1.91
Under 10.5
61%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.4 = 5
Over 3.5
69%1.41
Over 4.5
53%1.90
Under 3.5
31%2.57
Under 4.5
47%1.82

Match Events

33'N. Prelec
40'G. MontoiaFoul
62'R. Conceicao INJ. Agbonifo out
68'N. Prelec IND. Rallis out
68'J. Imaz INA. Klynge out
79'M. Legowski INP. Meyer out
79'T. Santos INM. Aiko out
82'B. VitalFoul
82'K. CzubakAssist: M. Ndiaye
85'S. LozanoAssist: K. Szmyt
86'Y. Bourhane INT. Plavotic out
87'Kikis INF. Haxha out
87'K. Szmyt INK. Jozwiak out
87'S. Lozano INA. Konstantopoulos out
90+2'K. JozwiakFoul

Lineups

Motor Lublin
4-1-4-1Coach: Mariusz Misiura
Jagiellonia
4-4-2Coach: Adrian Siemieniec
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.78
Mihai Popa6.971M. Popa
Thomas Santos6.229T. Santos
Bartosz Bereszyński7.318B. Bereszyński
Marek Kristián Bartoš6.739M. Kristián Bartoš
Filip Luberecki6.524F. Luberecki
Yacine Bourhane7.227Y. Bourhane
Mbaye Ndiaye6.730M. Ndiaye
Christopher Simon7.68C. Simon
Mateusz Łęgowski6.76M. Łęgowski
Fábio Ronaldo6.911F. Ronaldo
Karol CzubakC7.710K. Czubak
Sławomir Abramowicz7.250S. Abramowicz
Norbert Wojtuszek7.215N. Wojtuszek
Bernardo Vital6.65B. Vital
Yuki Kobayashi7.04Y. Kobayashi
Guilherme Montóia6.923G. Montóia
Rodrigo Conceição6.327R. Conceição
Taras RomanczukC7.26T. Romanczuk
Sergio Lozano8.221S. Lozano
Kajetan Szmyt7.07K. Szmyt
Jesús Imaz6.211J. Imaz
Nik Prelec7.399N. Prelec

Motor Lublin Substitutes

33Gašper Tratnik
4Tin Plavotić86'for Y. Bourhane6.7
5Artem Akatov
13Krystian Brzozowski
2Paskal Meyer79'for M. Legowski6.2
16Franciszek Lewandowski
21Konrad Kraska
22Marcel Złomańczuk
90Dominik Gregorski
23Florian Haxha87'for Kikis6.5
20Kacper Plichta
70Makan Aïko79'for T. Santos6.3

Jagiellonia Substitutes

1Michał Perchel
61Bartlomiej Krasiewicz
44Apostolos Konstantopoulos87'for S. Lozano6.3
8Dawid Drachal
10Jeremy Agbonifo62'for R. Conceicao6.3
2Cezary Polak
19Ferslev Anders Klynge68'for J. Imaz6.2
85Eryk Kozłowski
72Kamil Jóźwiak87'for K. Szmyt90+2'6.3
80Zachary Zalewski
9Dimitris Rallis68'for N. Prelec6.3
17Youssuf Sylla

Match Stats

Motor LublinJagiellonia
46%Ball Possession54%
4Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards3
21Total Shots13
7Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal4
16Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box6
6Blocked Shots5
4Fouls11
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
434Total Passes525
380Passes Accurate448
88%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

Motor LublinMotor Lublin
JagielloniaJagiellonia
1512Elo Rating 1583
1.95Attack 0.89
1.33Defense 0.85
42%Hit Rate 19%
22.2Shots per Game 11.9
7.8Shots on Target 3.0
6.3Corners per Game 3.4
2.3Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Motor LublinMotor Lublin
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.1 in first half)
JagielloniaJagiellonia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Motor LublinMotor Lublin0Wins · 0%
Draws125%
JagielloniaJagiellonia3Wins · 75%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

Ekstraklasa07/02/2026
JagielloniaMotor Lublin
41
Ekstraklasa14/12/2025
Motor LublinJagiellonia
11
Ekstraklasa16/02/2025
JagielloniaMotor Lublin
30
Ekstraklasa25/09/2024
Motor LublinJagiellonia
02

Recent Form

Motor LublinMotor Lublin
5W2D3L
26/07/2026
Widzew ŁódźMotor Lublin
22
D
17/07/2026
Motor LublinHapoel Katamon
20
W
11/07/2026
Motor LublinPolonia Warszawa
21
W
03/07/2026
Motor LublinWarta Poznań
41
W
27/06/2026
Motor LublinDinamo Bucuresti
31
W
23/05/2026
Legia WarszawaMotor Lublin
40
L
16/05/2026
Motor LublinCracovia Krakow
33
D
10/05/2026
Wisla PlockMotor Lublin
04
W
02/05/2026
Motor LublinLech Poznan
01
L
26/04/2026
Widzew ŁódźMotor Lublin
20
L
JagielloniaJagiellonia
8W2D0L
25/07/2026
JagielloniaKorona Kielce
10
W
17/07/2026
FC NordsjaellandJagiellonia
12
W
16/07/2026
JagielloniaSparta Praha
10
W
12/07/2026
JagielloniaPafos
10
W
09/07/2026
PolessyaJagiellonia
00
D
04/07/2026
JagielloniaPogoń Siedlce
41
W
23/05/2026
JagielloniaZaglebie Lubin
10
W
17/05/2026
GKS KatowiceJagiellonia
22
D
13/05/2026
Raków CzęstochowaJagiellonia
02
W
09/05/2026
JagielloniaPogon Szczecin
32
W

Referee Profile

Tomasz Kwiatkowski152 matches

4.33Cards per match
4.20Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
24.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tomasz Kwiatkowski4.33
Other referees4.35

4.33 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.35).

Cards come from 117 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1191129:10+1928WWWWL
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1283121:11+1027DDWDW
3Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1173119:9+1024WWWWW
4Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1265123:11+1223LDWWD
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1263319:15+421WDLWW
6Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1262422:18+420WDWLW
7Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1254315:15019DWLLW
8GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1260622:17+518LLWWW
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1253414:18-418WLLWL
10JagielloniaJagiellonia1150614:17-315WLLLL
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock1142510:16-614LWLWW
12Motor LublinMotor Lublin1234517:21-413DWWDL
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1233614:19-512LDWLL
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1218315:16-111DDLDD
15Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1223716:22-69WLLLL
16Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1222816:23-78LLLWD
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1222812:28-168LLLLL
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa12201016:28-126LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1129:1028
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1221:1127
3Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1119:924
4Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1223:1123
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1219:1521
6Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1222:1820
7Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1215:1519
8GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1222:1718
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1214:1818
10JagielloniaJagiellonia1114:1715
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock1110:1614
12Motor LublinMotor Lublin1217:2113
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1214:1912
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1215:1611
15Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1216:229
16Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1216:238
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1212:288
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa1216:286
Relegation

About the Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia forecast

The forecasts for this Ekstraklasa match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Motor Lublin and Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa table

Jagiellonia and Motor Lublin are close in the Ekstraklasa table, 10th and 12th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Motor Lublin 17-21, Jagiellonia 14-17. The full standings are on the Ekstraklasa Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.