Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction

Primera División - AperturaUruguay Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 7
Penarol
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Cerro Largo
Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera, Uruguay 01/08/2026
PenarolPenarol
3-0
Finished
Cerro LargoCerro Largo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.72
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseHighGap+9.4%
Penarol Rest
14 days
Cerro Largo Rest
7 days

Penarol vs Cerro Largo: result, form and history

Penarol beat Cerro Largo 3-0 in the Primera División - Apertura on 1 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Referee Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera averages 6.74 cards a game, 1.23 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
56%1.57
X
25%3.70
2
19%5.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.11
X2
44%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.04
No
54%1.68
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.45 + 0.82 = 2.27
Over 1.5
64%1.30
Over 2.5
37%2.00
Over 3.5
18%3.50
Under 1.5
36%3.15
Under 2.5
63%1.72
Under 3.5
82%1.26
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

24'S. Marcel
34'A. Hernandez
39'Lucas Hernandez
54'A. Hernandez
58'M. Arezo
61'N. Herrera INF. Romero out
61'J. Cabrera INL. Angulo out
61'A. Hernandez INJ. Rodriguez out
64'G. Viera INA. de Luca out
64'A. Pandiani INE. de Leon out
71'C. Jaime INB. Alvarez out
71'E. Darias INT. Olase out
74'B. Barboza
81'S. Marcel INN. Ramos out
84'S. Assis INE. Jourdan out
84'D. Daguerre INB. Barone out

Lineups

Penarol
Coach: Diego Aguirre
Cerro Largo
Coach: Ignacio Ordonez

Penarol Starting XI

29Washington Aguerre
34Nahuel Herrera61'replaced by F. Romero
36Brian Barboza74'
27Lucas Hernández39'
6Lucas Ferreira
11Cristian Jaime71'replaced by B. Alvarez
7Javier Cabrera61'replaced by L. Angulo
8Nicolás Fernández
13Eduardo Darias71'replaced by T. Olase
99Abel Hernández34'54'61'replaced by J. Rodriguez
19Matías Arezo58'

Cerro Largo Starting XI

12Pedro Gonzalez
14Lucas Correa
3Alexis Piegas
17Alexander Hernandez
20Santiago Franca
10Axel Pandiani64'replaced by E. de Leon
5Santiago Marcel24'81'replaced by N. Ramos
7Gustavo Viera64'replaced by A. de Luca
8Mario García
15Sebastián Assis84'replaced by E. Jourdan
18Diego Daguerre84'replaced by B. Barone

Penarol Substitutes

4Franco Romero61'for N. Herrera
33Jonathan Rodríguez61'for A. Hernandez
77Luis Miguel Angulo61'for J. Cabrera
16Tomas Olase71'for E. Darias
40Brandon Alvarez71'for C. Jaime
1Sebastián Britos
28Ignacio Alegre
3Mauricio Lemos
93Diego Laxalt
9Facundo Batista

Cerro Largo Substitutes

26Elías de León64'for A. Pandiani
11Alfonso de Luca64'for G. Viera
28Nicolás Ramos81'for S. Marcel
25Emiliano Jourdan84'for S. Assis
9Borys Barone84'for D. Daguerre
24Lukas González
6Julián Pou
19Axel Prado
21Ezequiel Cabral
22Nicolas Bertochi

Team Comparison

PenarolPenarol
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
1661Elo Rating 1457
0.50Attack 0.54
2.44Defense 1.98
17%Hit Rate 14%
9.8Shots per Game 6.8
2.8Shots on Target 1.9
4.2Corners per Game 4.8
3.8Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+204 Elo
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PenarolPenarol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0.1 in first half)
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

PenarolPenarol4Wins · 45%
Draws333%
Cerro LargoCerro Largo2Wins · 22%
2.6Avg Goals
56%Both teams scored5 of 9
44%3+ goals4 of 9

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
Primera División - Apertura01/06/2025
Cerro LargoPenarol
11
Primera División - Apertura31/03/2025
PenarolCerro Largo
02
Primera División - Apertura19/02/2024
Cerro LargoPenarol
12
Primera División - Apertura09/04/2023
Cerro LargoPenarol
00
Primera División - Apertura04/06/2022
PenarolCerro Largo
01
Primera División - Apertura06/08/2021
Cerro LargoPenarol
01
CONMEBOL Sudamericana14/04/2021
PenarolCerro Largo
41
CONMEBOL Sudamericana07/04/2021
Cerro LargoPenarol
22

Recent Form

PenarolPenarol
5W3D2L
18/07/2026
PenarolBoston River
30
W12/07/2026
Racing MontevideoPenarol
11
D07/06/2026
CerroPenarol
01
W
02/06/2026
PenarolCentral Espanol
01
L
28/05/2026
PenarolSanta Fe
01
L
24/05/2026
Defensor SportingPenarol
02
W
22/05/2026
PenarolCorinthians
11
D
16/05/2026
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
21
W
12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
W
08/05/2026
PlatensePenarol
11
D
Cerro LargoCerro Largo
4W2D4L
25/07/2026
Central EspanolCerro Largo
01
W14/07/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting
11
D09/06/2026
Liverpool MontevideoCerro Largo
00
D
30/05/2026
Cerro LargoCerro
20
W
23/05/2026
Cerro LargoBoston River
30
W
17/05/2026
Racing MontevideoCerro Largo
10
L
12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
L
03/05/2026
ProgresoCerro Largo
01
W
26/04/2026
Cerro LargoRacing Montevideo
01
L
20/04/2026
Boston RiverCerro Largo
10
L

Referee Profile

Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera45 matches

6.74Cards per match
6.24Yellow cards per match
0.50Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Leodan Frankin Gonzalez Cabrera6.74
Other referees5.51

6.74 cards a match, 1.23 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.51).

Cards come from 34 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol34198751:27+2464DLWLW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional341841251:41+1058WLLWW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo341512742:30+1257DWWWD
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo341511845:31+1456LWLDD
7WanderersWanderers341481241:43-250LLLWL
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo349101532:38-637LDDWL
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro341071728:51-2337DDWLW
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3451:2764
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3451:4158
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3442:3057
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3445:3156
7WanderersWanderers3441:4350
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3432:3837
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3428:5137
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol71431414117:61+56143DLWLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71421415127:74+53137WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7133221696:68+28121LWLDD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7129231981:68+13110DWWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7121232773:79-686LDDWL
12CerroCerro7122183161:93-3283DDWLW
13WanderersWanderers7120213066:90-2481LLLWL
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol71117:61143
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71127:74137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7196:68121
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7181:68110
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7173:7986
12CerroCerro7161:9383
13WanderersWanderers7166:9081
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916DLWLW
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LDDWL
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110DWWWD
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509LWLDD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409LDWWD
6CerroCerro73046:10-49DDWLW
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36DWLDD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55WLWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931DWWWD
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727DLWLW
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124LDWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522WLLWW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220LWLDD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520LLLWL
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LDDWL
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610DDWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1283120:8+1227LWLDD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1272317:12+523WLLWW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
5PenarolPenarol1264216:8+821DLWLW
6ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
7JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
8CerroCerro1253414:17-318DDWLW
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1244415:13+216DWWWD
10Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
11WanderersWanderers1243513:18-515LLLWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo121659:14-59LDDWL
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol121296:21-155LDWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1220:827
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1217:1223
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
5PenarolPenarol1216:821
6ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
7JuventudJuventud1212:818
8CerroCerro1214:1718
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1215:1316
10Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
11WanderersWanderers1213:1815
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo129:149
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol126:215
PromotionRelegation

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About the Penarol vs Cerro Largo forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Penarol and Cerro Largo in the Primera División - Apertura table

In the Primera División - Apertura table, Penarol are 1st and Cerro Largo 11th, 27 points apart. League goal record so far: Penarol 51-27, Cerro Largo 32-38. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.