Rochedale Rovers vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction

16/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.40
SignalHIGHModel100%SurpriseMediumGap+5.2%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.40
SignalHIGHModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+12.6%
Rochedale Rovers Rest
10 days
Moreton City Excelsior Rest
10 days

Rochedale Rovers vs Moreton City Excelsior: the result in context

Moreton City Excelsior beat Rochedale Rovers 5-2 in the Queensland NPL on 16 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.3 a game across 3 meetings, with both teams scoring in 2.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
9%5.32
X
14%4.80
2
77%1.40
Double Chance
1X
23%2.70
X2
90%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.45
No
50%2.48
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.07 + 2.64 = 3.71
Over 1.5
89%1.04
Over 2.5
71%1.27
Over 3.5
53%1.79
Under 1.5
11%7.05
Under 2.5
29%3.12
Under 3.5
47%1.90
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

12'
43'
55'
65'
79'
86'
90+2'

Team Comparison

Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
1357Elo Rating 1527
1.63Attack 0.87
1.30Defense 1.35
46%Hit Rate 17%

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.71 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior3Wins · 100%
3.3Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

Queensland NPL21/03/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorRochedale Rovers
31
Queensland NPL18/08/2024
Rochedale RoversMoreton City Excelsior
13
Queensland NPL19/05/2024
Moreton City ExcelsiorRochedale Rovers
20

Recent Form

Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers
3W2D5L
06/06/2026
Rochedale RoversPeninsula Power
02
L
03/06/2026
Rochedale RoversMagic United
40
W
23/05/2026
Gold Coast UnitedRochedale Rovers
40
L
10/05/2026
Rochedale RoversOlympic
31
W
25/04/2026
Eastern SuburbsRochedale Rovers
61
L
19/04/2026
Brisbane CityRochedale Rovers
22
D
10/04/2026
Gold Coast KnightsRochedale Rovers
11
D
29/03/2026
Peninsula PowerRochedale Rovers
31
L
21/03/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorRochedale Rovers
31
L
14/03/2026
Rochedale RoversBrisbane Roar II
10
W
Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior
7W1D2L
05/06/2026
Eastern SuburbsMoreton City Excelsior
00
D
22/05/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorBrisbane City
25
L
16/05/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorOlympic
43
W
09/05/2026
LionsMoreton City Excelsior
20
L
25/04/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorBrisbane Roar II
60
W
18/04/2026
Peninsula PowerMoreton City Excelsior
14
W
11/04/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorGold Coast United
21
W
07/04/2026
Magic UnitedMoreton City Excelsior
05
W
28/03/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorEastern Suburbs
30
W
21/03/2026
Moreton City ExcelsiorRochedale Rovers
31
W

League Table

Queensland NPL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LionsLions22172357:22+3553WWWWW
2Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power22136349:27+2245DDLDD
3Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior22123751:35+1639LWLDW
4Gold Coast KnightsGold Coast Knights22115646:32+1438WDLDL
5Brisbane CityBrisbane City2297647:48-134DWLWD
6WDSC WolvesWDSC Wolves2296736:40-433LDWWD
7Eastern SuburbsEastern Suburbs22921134:35-129LDLLL
8OlympicOlympic22821239:43-426LLWWL
9Magic UnitedMagic United22711433:59-2622WWLWL
10Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers22631334:52-1821WLWLL
11Gold Coast UnitedGold Coast United22621426:39-1320WLWDL
12Brisbane Roar IIBrisbane Roar II22511632:52-2016LLWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1LionsLions2257:2253
2Peninsula PowerPeninsula Power2249:2745
3Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City Excelsior2251:3539
4Gold Coast KnightsGold Coast Knights2246:3238
5Brisbane CityBrisbane City2247:4834
6WDSC WolvesWDSC Wolves2236:4033
7Eastern SuburbsEastern Suburbs2234:3529
8OlympicOlympic2239:4326
9Magic UnitedMagic United2233:5922
10Rochedale RoversRochedale Rovers2234:5221
11Gold Coast UnitedGold Coast United2226:3920
12Brisbane Roar IIBrisbane Roar II2232:5216

About the Rochedale Rovers vs Moreton City Excelsior forecast

The forecasts for this Queensland NPL match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Rochedale Rovers and Moreton City Excelsior in the Queensland NPL table

The table shows a wide gap: Moreton City Excelsior are 3rd in the Queensland NPL, while Rochedale Rovers sit 10th, 18 points behind. League goal record so far: Rochedale Rovers 34-52, Moreton City Excelsior 51-35. The full standings are on the Queensland NPL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.