Stranraer vs Dumbarton Prediction

Stranraer
3-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Dumbarton
Stair Park, Stranraer 12/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.4%
Stranraer Rest
7 days
Dumbarton Rest
3 days

Stranraer vs Dumbarton: result, form and history

Stranraer beat Dumbarton 3-1 in the League Two on 12 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Stranraer had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Dumbarton.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.53
X
16%4.00
2
19%5.00
Double Chance
1X
81%1.13
X2
35%2.25
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

32'S. Honeyman
38'D. Craig
55'S. MasonAssist: A. Quigg
59'L. DobbieAssist: S. Mason
60'J. Sowa INC. Campbell out
62'S. Mason
66'D. Craig INJ. Todd out
67'D. McManus INJ. Dolan out
67'A. Traynor INJ. Stuart out
72'Z. BruceAssist: L. Dobbie
76'K. Kirkpatrick INL. McIntosh out
76'T. Robson INT. Wallace out
76'S. Mason IND. Clelland out
90+2'
90+3'(Penalty missed)

Team Comparison

StranraerStranraer
DumbartonDumbarton
1498Elo Rating 1344
2.85Attack 0.95
1.98Defense 1.52
66%Hit Rate 41%

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+154 Elo
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

StranraerStranraer
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
DumbartonDumbarton
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

StranraerStranraer2Wins · 20%
Draws440%
DumbartonDumbarton4Wins · 40%
2.5Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

League Two04/04/2026
StranraerDumbarton
11
League Two10/03/2026
DumbartonStranraer
20
League Two20/12/2025
StranraerDumbarton
11
League Two27/09/2025
DumbartonStranraer
12
League Two20/04/2024
StranraerDumbarton
00
League Two05/03/2024
StranraerDumbarton
50
League Two24/02/2024
DumbartonStranraer
21
League Two30/09/2023
DumbartonStranraer
31
League Two06/05/2023
DumbartonStranraer
11
League Two04/03/2023
StranraerDumbarton
02

Recent Form

StranraerStranraer
4W1D5L
05/09/2026
Forfar AthleticStranraer
03
W
01/09/2026
StranraerCeltic II
34
L
29/08/2026
StranraerKelty Hearts
20
W
25/08/2026
StranraerGala Fairydean Rovers
30
W
22/08/2026
Stirling AlbionStranraer
22
D
15/08/2026
StranraerSpartans
10
W
11/08/2026
Alloa AthleticStranraer
21
L
08/08/2026
StranraerAnnan Athletic
01
L
01/08/2026
ClydeStranraer
31
L
25/07/2026
FalkirkStranraer
30
L
DumbartonDumbarton
3W1D6L
08/09/2026
Cove RangersDumbarton
61
L
05/09/2026
DumbartonElgin City
21
W
29/08/2026
Annan AthleticDumbarton
20
L
25/08/2026
DumbartonCeltic II
22
D
22/08/2026
Kelty HeartsDumbarton
31
L
15/08/2026
DumbartonEdinburgh City
03
L
11/08/2026
DumbartonAirdrie United
13
L
08/08/2026
DumbartonClyde
10
W
01/08/2026
Stirling AlbionDumbarton
20
L
25/07/2026
DumbartonCove Rangers
20
W

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1StranraerStranraer1273225:9+1624DWWDW
2ClydeClyde1273227:18+924DWWLD
3Elgin CityElgin City1263328:17+1121WDWWL
4SpartansSpartans1253425:22+318WLWLL
5Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts1250716:22-615LWLWL
6Stirling AlbionStirling Albion1243519:26-715WDWWD
7Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City1254322:19+314WDLDW
8DumbartonDumbarton1241713:20-713LDLWW
9Forfar AthleticForfar Athletic1232713:24-1111LLLLW
10Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic1230913:24-119LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1StranraerStranraer1225:924
2ClydeClyde1227:1824
3Elgin CityElgin City1228:1721
4SpartansSpartans1225:2218
5Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts1216:2215
6Stirling AlbionStirling Albion1219:2615
7Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City1222:1914
8DumbartonDumbarton1213:2013
9Forfar AthleticForfar Athletic1213:2411
10Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic1213:249
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About the Stranraer vs Dumbarton forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Stranraer and Dumbarton in the League Two table

The table shows a wide gap: Stranraer are 1st in the League Two, while Dumbarton sit 8th, 11 points behind. League goal record so far: Stranraer 25-9, Dumbarton 13-20. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.