AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

AC Milan
0-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Benfica
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano·Jarred Gillett, Australia 16/09/2026
AC MilanAC Milan
0-2
Finished
BenficaBenfica

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-3.6%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+3.9%
AC Milan Rest
4 days
Benfica Rest
3 days

AC Milan vs Benfica: result, form and history

Benfica beat AC Milan 2-0 in the UEFA Europa League on 16 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Benfica had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for AC Milan.

Benfica tend to win more corners, 6.0 a game to 3.0 for AC Milan.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%2.25
X
26%3.58
2
28%3.00
Double Chance
1X
72%1.36
X2
54%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.57
No
37%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 1.39 = 3.00
Over 1.5
79%1.21
Over 2.5
57%1.72
Over 3.5
35%2.70
Under 1.5
21%4.15
Under 2.5
43%2.15
Under 3.5
65%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 5.2 = 9.7
Over 8.5
59%1.57
Over 9.5
46%1.98
Over 10.5
36%2.55
Under 8.5
41%2.20
Under 9.5
54%1.78
Under 10.5
64%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%1.67
Over 4.5
46%2.20
Under 3.5
35%2.13
Under 4.5
54%1.62

Match Events

11'S. PavlovicHolding
16'D. LukebakioAssist: J. Kaminski
26'S. El KarouaniHolding
37'J. DuranElbowing
46'O. Hutchinson INC. Pulisic out
46'F. Terracciano INM. Gila out
53'J. KaminskiAssist: S. El Karouani
57'D. Bartesaghi INA. Saelemaekers out
57'A. Cisse IND. Moreira out
70'F. Aursnes INL. Barreiro out
70'G. Sudakov ING. Prestianni out
73'A. Jashari INA. Rabiot out
77'D. BanjaquiTripping
80'J. Kaminski INA. Schjelderup out
80'J. Duran INV. Pavlidis out
84'L. BarreiroHolding
88'S. El Karouani INS. Dahl out
90+2'V. PavlidisHolding

Lineups

AC Milan
3-4-2-1Coach: Ruben Amorim
Benfica
4-2-3-1Coach: Marco Silva
Avg rating6.60
Avg rating7.17
Mike MaignanC6.316M. Maignan
Filippo Terracciano6.542F. Terracciano
Koni De Winter6.75K. De Winter
Strahinja Pavlović6.331S. Pavlović
Samuel Chukwueze7.321S. Chukwueze
Ardon Jashari6.230A. Jashari
Yunus Musah6.980Y. Musah
Davide Bartesaghi6.933D. Bartesaghi
Omari Hutchinson6.520O. Hutchinson
Alphadjo Cissè6.970A. Cissè
Gonçalo Ramos5.99G. Ramos
Anatoliy Trubin8.51A. Trubin
Daniel Banjaqui7.558D. Banjaqui
Alessandro Circati7.33A. Circati
Tomás Araújo8.244T. Araújo
Souffian El Karouani7.334S. El Karouani
Fredrik AursnesC6.68F. Aursnes
João Palhinha7.536J. Palhinha
Dodi Lukebakio8.211D. Lukebakio
Georgiy Sudakov6.710G. Sudakov
Jakub Kamiński7.913J. Kamiński
Jhon Durán6.222J. Durán

AC Milan Substitutes

34Mario Gila46'for F. Terracciano7.3
11Christian Pulišić46'for O. Hutchinson6.0
22Diego Moreira57'for A. Cisse6.3
56Alexis Saelemaekers57'for D. Bartesaghi7.3
96Lorenzo Torriani
23Fikayo Tomori
46Matteo Gabbia
2Pervis Estupiñán
8Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12Adrien Rabiot73'for A. Jashari6.3
14Luka Modrić
73Francesco Camarda

Benfica Substitutes

18Leandro Barreiro70'for F. Aursnes84'6.2
25Gianluca Prestianni70'for G. Sudakov6.6
24Samuel Soares
2Clément Lenglet
26Samuel Dahl88'for S. El Karouani
5Enzo Barrenechea
16Manu Silva
21Andreas Schjelderup80'for J. Kaminski6.3
27Rafa Silva
30Claudio Echeverri
14Vangelis Pavlidis80'for J. Duran90+2'6.5
72Anísio Cabral

Match Stats

AC MilanBenfica
60%Ball Possession40%
10Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards5
17Total Shots11
4Shots on Goal4
10Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box5
8Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots4
14Fouls12
0Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
567Total Passes382
521Passes Accurate324
92%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

AC MilanAC Milan
BenficaBenfica
1857Elo Rating 1950
2.05Attack 2.83
1.57Defense 2.00
56%Hit Rate 83%
9.5Shots per Game 20.2
4.9Shots on Target 6.3
3.0Corners per Game 6.0
2.4Cards per Game 3.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AC MilanAC Milan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BenficaBenfica
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches

Recent Form

AC MilanAC Milan
4W4D2L
12/09/2026
LazioAC Milan
22
D
06/09/2026
JuventusAC Milan
11
D
28/08/2026
AC MilanVenezia
20
W
23/08/2026
TorinoAC Milan
12
W
15/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAC Milan
24
W
08/08/2026
ChelseaAC Milan
30
L
05/08/2026
AC MilanInter
11
D
25/07/2026
CelticAC Milan
22
D
17/05/2026
GenoaAC Milan
12
W
10/05/2026
AC MilanAtalanta
23
L
BenficaBenfica
8W2D0L

Referee Profile

Jarred Gillett178 matches

3.70Cards per match
3.60Yellow cards per match
0.10Red cards per match
20.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jarred Gillett3.70
Other referees3.79

3.70 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.79).

Cards come from 170 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Europa League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BenficaBenfica330010:2+89WWW
2Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen33008:0+89WWW
3BournemouthBournemouth33008:1+79WWW
4Ferencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC33009:3+69WWW
5Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus33004:1+39WWW
6Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise32108:1+77WDW
7JuventusJuventus32109:3+67DWW
8BeşiktaşBeşiktaş32109:5+47DWW
9SunderlandSunderland32104:2+27DWW
10AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar32016:2+46WWL
11Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia32015:4+16LWW
12LyonLyon32015:6-16LWW
13RennesRennes31204:3+15DWD
14Real SociedadReal Sociedad31118:3+54WDL
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace31118:5+34DLW
16Sparta PrahaSparta Praha31115:3+24LDW
17Levski SofiaLevski Sofia31113:304WDL
18Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb31113:4-14LWD
19Sturm GrazSturm Graz31111:3-24WLD
20NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen31115:8-34WDL
21Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg31113:6-34DLW
22AnderlechtAnderlecht31024:3+13WLL
231899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim31025:503WLL
24AC MilanAC Milan31024:5-13LWL
25Celta VigoCelta Vigo31023:4-13WLL
26OFIOFI31023:4-13LLW
27JagielloniaJagiellonia31024:6-23LWL
28TorreenseTorreense31024:7-33LLW
29CeljeCelje30122:7-51DLL
30Hapoel Beer ShevaHapoel Beer Sheva30121:6-51LLD
31LillestromLillestrom30122:9-71LDL
32Lech PoznanLech Poznan30121:9-81DLL
33PlzenPlzen30032:7-50LLL
34MarseilleMarseille30031:6-50LLL
35CelticCeltic30033:9-60LLL
36Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia30032:11-90LLL
Europa League

About the AC Milan vs Benfica forecast

This is a UEFA Europa League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AC Milan and Benfica in the UEFA Europa League table

In the UEFA Europa League table, Benfica are 1st and AC Milan 24th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: AC Milan 4-5, Benfica 10-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

AC Milan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Benfica have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. AC Milan and Benfica have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.