Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Prediction

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund·S. Sozza 08/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+0.5%
Value Analysis
63%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.79
SignalSOLIDModel63%SurpriseMediumGap+10.0%
Borussia Dortmund Rest
3 days
Villarreal Rest
3 days

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal: the result in context

Borussia Dortmund beat Villarreal 3-2 in the UEFA Champions League on 8 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Borussia Dortmund had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Villarreal.

Borussia Dortmund tend to win more corners, 9.5 a game to 5.9 for Villarreal.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.79
X
21%4.00
2
15%4.13
Double Chance
1X
85%1.22
X2
37%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.44
No
45%2.63
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.15 + 1.03 = 3.18
Over 1.5
83%1.14
Over 2.5
63%1.46
Over 3.5
40%2.15
Under 1.5
17%5.50
Under 2.5
37%2.65
Under 3.5
60%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 3.4 = 8.5
Over 8.5
52%1.55
Over 9.5
41%1.92
Over 10.5
31%2.48
Under 8.5
48%2.31
Under 9.5
59%1.82
Under 10.5
69%1.49
Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

27'Konstantinos Karetsas INEthan Nwaneri out
38'Waldemar AntonFoul
38'Pau NavarroFoul
42'Sergi Cardona BermúdezFoul
45'Sergi Cardona Bermúdez INAlex Freeman out
53'Renato VeigaOG
59'Tani Oluwaseyi INAlberto Moleiro out
59'Nathan-Dylan Saliba INNicolas Pépé out
66'Álvaro Santiago Mouriño GonzálezAssist: Georges Mikautadze
75'Tajon Buchanan INAlassane Diatta out
75'Marcel Sabitzer INJobe Bellingham out
75'Felix Nmecha INFábio Silva out
80'Serhou GuirassyAssist: Fábio Silva
82'Maximilian Beier INKauã Prates out
82'Ethan Nwaneri INCarney Chukwuemeka out
83'Pau Navarro INGerard Moreno out
83'Álvaro Santiago Mouriño GonzálezFoul
85'Serhou Guirassy(Penalty)
90+3'Serhou GuirassyOG

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1Coach: N. Kovač
Villarreal
4-2-3-1Coach: Iñigo Pérez
Avg rating6.57
Avg rating6.28
G. Kobel7.31G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou6.622K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton6.53W. Anton
D. Svensson6.224D. Svensson
J. Ryerson6.326J. Ryerson
J. Veerman6.725J. Veerman
F. Nmecha6.38F. Nmecha
M. Beier6.114M. Beier
K. Karetsas5.919K. Karetsas
M. Sabitzer7.220M. Sabitzer
S. Guirassy7.49S. Guirassy
P. Gulácsi6.725P. Gulácsi
S. Mouriño7.115S. Mouriño
Pau Navarro5.96P. Navarro
Renato Veiga5.312R. Veiga
Sergi Cardona5.923S. Cardona
Santi Comesaña6.514S. Comesaña
P. Gueye6.418P. Gueye
T. Buchanan7.217T. Buchanan
N. Saliba5.924N. Saliba
T. Oluwaseyi5.721T. Oluwaseyi
G. Mikautadze7.09G. Mikautadze

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

41M. Albert
7J. Bellingham75'for Marcel Sabitzer6.4
17C. Chukwuemeka82'replaced by Ethan Nwaneri6.0
30P. Drewes
40S. Inacio
33A. Meyer
18E. Nwaneri27'for Konstantinos Karetsas82'for Carney Chukwuemeka6.8
36Kauã Prates82'for Maximilian Beier6.8
49L. Reggiani
21Fábio Silva75'for Felix Nmecha6.8

Villarreal Substitutes

22Ayoze Pérez
19N. Pépé59'for Nathan-Dylan Saliba6.8
7Gerard Moreno83'for Pau Navarro6.3
10Alberto Moleiro59'for Tani Oluwaseyi5.8
16C. Macia
1Luíz Júnior
13Rubén Gómez
3A. Freeman45'for Sergi Cardona Bermúdez6.6
5A. Diatta75'for Tajon Buchanan5.7
2Logan Costa
11Ilias Akhomach

Match Stats

Borussia DortmundVillarreal
52%Ball Possession48%
9Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards3
18Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots3
15Fouls10
1Offsides3
5Goalkeeper Saves4
514Total Passes481
461Passes Accurate413
90%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
VillarrealVillarreal
1939Elo Rating 1796
1.01Attack 1.72
2.32Defense 1.51
50%Hit Rate 44%
16.3Shots per Game 17.0
5.9Shots on Target 4.5
9.5Corners per Game 5.9
1.2Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+144 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.18 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
VillarrealVillarreal
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
VillarrealVillarreal0Wins · 0%
4.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

UEFA Champions League25/11/2025
Borussia DortmundVillarreal
40

Recent Form

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
6W1D3L
05/09/2026
1899 HoffenheimBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/09/2026
HEBCBorussia Dortmund
05
W
29/08/2026
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
20
W
22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
12
L
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
09/08/2026
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/08/2026
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund
01
W
29/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund
10
L
25/07/2026
Fortuna DüsseldorfBorussia Dortmund
21
L
18/07/2026
Rot-weiss OberhausenBorussia Dortmund
13
W
VillarrealVillarreal
3W2D5L
05/09/2026
VillarrealDeportivo La Coruna
23
L
28/08/2026
AlavesVillarreal
10
L
23/08/2026
Atletico MadridVillarreal
22
D
16/08/2026
Racing SantanderVillarreal
22
D
08/08/2026
GalatasarayVillarreal
12
W
05/08/2026
VillarrealLevante
10
W
01/08/2026
LensVillarreal
31
L
25/07/2026
PSV EindhovenVillarreal
13
W
17/07/2026
BenficaVillarreal
20
L
17/05/2026
Rayo VallecanoVillarreal
20
L

Referee Profile

S. Sozza161 matches

4.50Cards per match
4.34Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

S. Sozza4.50
Other referees4.59

4.50 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.59).

Cards come from 150 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Champions League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain330014:5+99WWW
2Aston VillaAston Villa330012:3+99WWW
3LiverpoolLiverpool330012:7+59WWW
4Real MadridReal Madrid330010:5+59WWW
5Real BetisReal Betis33007:4+39WWW
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart32107:2+57DWW
7ArsenalArsenal32106:2+47DWW
8BarcelonaBarcelona320111:6+56LWW
9ComoComo320110:5+56WLW
10Manchester CityManchester City32019:5+46WLW
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV32019:6+36WWL
12Sporting CPSporting CP32017:4+36LWW
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund32015:4+16WLW
14Bayern MünchenBayern München312010:5+55DDW
15AS RomaAS Roma31118:5+34WLD
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid31114:3+14DWL
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk31114:3+14LWD
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven31112:204WLD
19VillarrealVillarreal31028:803LWL
20InterInter31025:6-13WLL
21Manchester UnitedManchester United31025:6-13LLW
22NapoliNapoli31025:7-23WLL
23GalatasarayGalatasaray31026:9-33WLL
24Lask LinzLask Linz31026:9-33WLL
25Sabah FASabah FA31023:6-33LWL
26FeyenoordFeyenoord31024:8-43LWL
27LensLens31023:7-43LLW
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt31024:9-53LWL
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC31023:8-53LLW
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig31023:8-53LWL
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe30213:9-62DLD
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha30124:7-31DLL
33VikingViking30125:9-41LDL
34FC PortoFC Porto30032:6-40LLL
35LilleLille30034:10-60LLL
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava30031:13-120LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain314:59
2Aston VillaAston Villa312:39
3LiverpoolLiverpool312:79
4Real MadridReal Madrid310:59
5Real BetisReal Betis37:49
6VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart37:27
7ArsenalArsenal36:27
8BarcelonaBarcelona311:66
9ComoComo310:56
10Manchester CityManchester City39:56
11Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV39:66
12Sporting CPSporting CP37:46
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund35:46
14Bayern MünchenBayern München310:55
15AS RomaAS Roma38:54
16Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid34:34
17Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk34:34
18PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven32:24
19VillarrealVillarreal38:83
20InterInter35:63
21Manchester UnitedManchester United35:63
22NapoliNapoli35:73
23GalatasarayGalatasaray36:93
24Lask LinzLask Linz36:93
25Sabah FASabah FA33:63
26FeyenoordFeyenoord34:83
27LensLens33:73
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt34:93
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC33:83
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig33:83
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe33:92
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha34:71
33VikingViking35:91
34FC PortoFC Porto32:60
35LilleLille34:100
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava31:130

About the Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League table

In the UEFA Champions League table, Borussia Dortmund are 13th and Villarreal 19th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Borussia Dortmund 5-4, Villarreal 8-8. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal have met only 1 time recently, with 4.0 goals in that meeting. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.