Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Prediction

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund·Felix Zwayer, Germany 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.60
SignalSOLIDModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+7.7%
Borussia Dortmund Rest
6 days
Hamburger SV Rest
5 days

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: the result in context

Borussia Dortmund beat Hamburger SV 2-0 in the Bundesliga on 29 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Felix Zwayer averages 4.93 cards a game, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
71%1.37
X
14%5.25
2
15%7.45
Double Chance
1X
85%1.09
X2
29%3.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.75
No
40%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.27 + 1.07 = 3.34
Over 1.5
83%1.15
Over 2.5
66%1.50
Over 3.5
37%2.30
Under 1.5
17%5.13
Under 2.5
34%2.55
Under 3.5
63%1.63
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.7 = 10
Over 8.5
63%1.44
Over 9.5
53%1.73
Over 10.5
41%2.16
Under 8.5
37%2.60
Under 9.5
47%2.04
Under 10.5
59%1.62
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.3 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.61
Over 4.5
35%2.20
Under 3.5
43%2.18
Under 4.5
65%1.60

Match Events

9'Serhou GuirassyAssist: Konstantinos Karetsas
21'Albert Sambi LokongaFoul
45+1'Giannis Konstantelias
54'Giannis Konstantelias INMarcel Sabitzer out
58'Julian RyersonFoul
67'Martin Adeline INOtto Emerson Stange out
67'Patson Daka INTerem Moffi out
74'Julian Ryerson INFilippo Mane out
74'Felix Nmecha INJoey Veerman out
74'Konstantinos Karetsas INSamuele Inácio out
77'Samuele InácioSerious foul
82'Bakery Jatta INYussuf Poulsen out
82'Jordan Torunarigha INBilal Nadir out
84'Maximilian Beier INKauã Prates out
85'Daniel SvenssonFoul
89'Louis Pepe Lemke INRayan Philippe out

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund
3-4-3Coach: Niko Kovac
Hamburger SV
3-4-2-1Coach: Merlin Polzin
Avg rating7.07
Avg rating6.23
G. Kobel7.31G. Kobel
Kouakou Joane Gadou7.422K. Joane Gadou
W. Anton7.53W. Anton
D. Svensson7.224D. Svensson
J. Ryerson6.826J. Ryerson
J. Bellingham7.27J. Bellingham
F. Nmecha7.08F. Nmecha
M. Beier6.714M. Beier
K. Karetsas7.719K. Karetsas
S. Guirassy8.19S. Guirassy
G. Konstantelias6.945G. Konstantelias
Daniel Heuer Fernandes7.21D. Heuer Fernandes
N. Capaldo5.924N. Capaldo
S. Bornauw5.433S. Bornauw
J. Torunarigha6.123J. Torunarigha
B. Jatta6.318B. Jatta
A. Sambi Lokonga6.76A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg6.421N. Remberg
L. Lemke5.937L. Lemke
M. Adeline6.15M. Adeline
A. Grønbæk6.411A. Grønbæk
P. Daka6.027P. Daka

Borussia Dortmund Substitutes

41M. Albert
40S. Inacio74'for Konstantinos Karetsas77'5.7
39F. Mané74'for Julian Ryerson7.0
33A. Meyer
36Kauã Prates84'for Maximilian Beier7.1
20M. Sabitzer54'for Giannis Konstantelias6.8
21Fábio Silva
25J. Veerman74'for Felix Nmecha6.9

Hamburger SV Substitutes

14R. Philippe89'for Louis Pepe Lemke6.5
15Y. Poulsen82'for Bakery Jatta6.6
19Otto Emerson Stange67'for Martin Adeline6.1
12S. Tangvik
9T. Moffi67'for Patson Daka6.3
4B. Nadir82'for Jordan Torunarigha6.0
8Daniel Elfadli
22Kofi Jeremy Amoako

Match Stats

Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
56%Ball Possession44%
3Corner Kicks1
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
20Total Shots8
6Shots on Goal3
10Shots off Goal5
12Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots0
13Fouls19
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
538Total Passes419
472Passes Accurate339
88%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
1945Elo Rating 1677
1.43Attack 1.24
2.13Defense 1.49
69%Hit Rate 50%
14.6Shots per Game 12.8
4.9Shots on Target 4.1
8.0Corners per Game 3.9
1.3Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+268 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.35 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
Hamburger SVHamburger SV0Wins · 0%
3.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

Bundesliga21/03/2026
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
32
Bundesliga08/11/2025
Hamburger SVBorussia Dortmund
11

Recent Form

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
5W1D4L
22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
12
L
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
09/08/2026
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
23
W
01/08/2026
FC TokyoBorussia Dortmund
01
W
29/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund
10
L
25/07/2026
Fortuna DüsseldorfBorussia Dortmund
21
L
18/07/2026
Rot-weiss OberhausenBorussia Dortmund
13
W
16/05/2026
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund
02
W
08/05/2026
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
32
W
03/05/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
10
L
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4W2D4L
24/08/2026
VerlHamburger SV
03
W
15/08/2026
ToulouseHamburger SV
12
W
08/08/2026
Hamburger SVLille
22
D
01/08/2026
Hamburger SVEverton
12
L
18/07/2026
Rapid ViennaHamburger SV
32
L
16/05/2026
Bayer LeverkusenHamburger SV
11
D
10/05/2026
Hamburger SVSC Freiburg
32
W
02/05/2026
Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
12
W
25/04/2026
Hamburger SV1899 Hoffenheim
12
L
18/04/2026
Werder BremenHamburger SV
31
L

Referee Profile

Felix Zwayer248 matches

4.93Cards per match
4.77Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Felix Zwayer4.93
Other referees4.19

4.93 cards a match, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.19).

Cards come from 243 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München853027:8+1918DWWDW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund853014:6+818DWDDW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg851218:10+816WLLWD
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig850322:11+1115WWLWL
5Werder BremenWerder Bremen843117:14+315WWDDW
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen841318:16+213LLWWW
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg841316:16013WLWLD
8FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05831417:17010LLWLW
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg823318:15+39LDLDL
10VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart830514:15-19WLLWL
111899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim830514:16-29LWWLL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln82339:12-39DDLWL
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0782336:9-39DWDLW
14Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
15Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin81437:19-127DDDWL
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0481344:9-56LDLLD
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach811611:22-114DWLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, Borussia Dortmund are 2nd and Hamburger SV 14th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Borussia Dortmund 14-6, Hamburger SV 6-16. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Borussia Dortmund and Hamburger SV have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.