FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction

Mewa Arena, Mainz·Tobias Stieler, Germany 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.62
SignalGOODModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+11.4%
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
6 days
SC Paderborn 07 Rest
5 days

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: the result in context

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga on 29 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.57
X
24%4.34
2
19%5.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.16
X2
43%2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
69%1.62
No
31%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.88 + 1.39 = 3.27
Over 1.5
83%1.17
Over 2.5
60%1.60
Over 3.5
36%2.40
Under 1.5
17%4.70
Under 2.5
40%2.38
Under 3.5
64%1.55
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4 = 9.9
Over 8.5
63%1.50
Over 9.5
53%1.84
Over 10.5
38%2.31
Under 8.5
37%2.40
Under 9.5
47%1.91
Under 10.5
62%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2 = 3.5
Over 3.5
50%1.86
Over 4.5
27%2.67
Under 3.5
50%1.83
Under 4.5
73%1.41

Match Events

38'Santiago CastanedaFoul
67'Stefano Marino INSteffen Tigges out
68'Sheraldo Becker INOtto Ruoppi out
68'Lee Jae-Sung INRansford Konigsdorffer out
72'Mattes HansenFoul
73'Anthony Caci INSilvan Widmer out
75'Mattes Hansen INJonah Sticker out
75'Laurin Ulrich INTom Baack out
80'Dominik Kohr INKacper Potulski out
90+1'Phillipp MweneFoul
90+2'Marvin Pieringer INClemens Lippmann out

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05
3-1-4-2Coach: Urs Fischer
SC Paderborn 07
3-4-3Coach: Ralf Kettemann
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating6.60
R. Zentner7.027R. Zentner
D. da Costa7.521D. da Costa
F. Gruber7.13F. Gruber
D. Kohr7.231D. Kohr
K. Sano6.96K. Sano
A. Caci6.519A. Caci
Lee Jae-Sung6.37L. Jae-Sung
N. Amiri7.210N. Amiri
P. Mwene6.22P. Mwene
S. Becker6.323S. Becker
P. Tietz6.49P. Tietz
N. Noll7.615N. Noll
J. ter Horst6.921J. ter Horst
T. Scheller7.025T. Scheller
M. Hansen6.622M. Hansen
L. Curda6.217L. Curda
L. Ulrich6.128L. Ulrich
S. Castañeda6.45S. Castañeda
R. Obermair6.423R. Obermair
S. Marino6.730S. Marino
M. Pieringer6.318M. Pieringer
G. Vidović6.340G. Vidović

FSV Mainz 05 Substitutes

24S. Kawasaki
11R. Königsdörffer68'for Lee Jae-Sung6.6
15L. Maloney
47R. Nakuzola
4S. Posch
48K. Potulski80'for Dominik Kohr6.8
20O. Ruoppi68'for Sheraldo Becker6.5
1A. Schwolow
30S. Widmer73'for Anthony Caci6.8

SC Paderborn 07 Substitutes

6T. Baack75'for Laurin Ulrich6.5
7O. Batista Meier
8L. Đurić
29C. Lippmann90+2'for Marvin Pieringer
1M. Schubert
27S. Tigges67'for Stefano Marino6.8
38D. Zeitler
24N. Mohr

Match Stats

FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
51%Ball Possession49%
11Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
21Total Shots10
4Shots on Goal0
11Shots off Goal6
14Shots Inside Box6
7Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots4
8Fouls10
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves4
461Total Passes462
385Passes Accurate386
84%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
1770Elo Rating 1710
2.16Attack 1.22
0.49Defense 1.56
39%Hit Rate 44%
17.0Shots per Game 15.1
6.5Shots on Target 4.5
3.9Corners per Game 5.1
2.7Cards per Game 0.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.27 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.9 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
8W1D1L
23/08/2026
KrieschowFSV Mainz 05
09
W
15/08/2026
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth
21
W
01/08/2026
UdineseFSV Mainz 05
33
D
31/07/2026
FSV Mainz 05Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
10
W
25/07/2026
FSV Mainz 05Holstein Kiel
30
W
17/07/2026
FSV Mainz 051. FC Kaiserslautern
41
W
11/07/2026
EisbachtalFSV Mainz 05
010
W
16/05/2026
1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
02
W
10/05/2026
FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
13
L
03/05/2026
FC St. PauliFSV Mainz 05
12
W
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4W4D2L
23/08/2026
Phönix LübeckSC Paderborn 07
24
W
08/08/2026
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
22
D
01/08/2026
VfL OsnabrückSC Paderborn 07
02
W
25/05/2026
SC Paderborn 07VfL Wolfsburg
2111
W
21/05/2026
VfL WolfsburgSC Paderborn 07
00
D
17/05/2026
SV Darmstadt 98SC Paderborn 07
02
W
08/05/2026
SC Paderborn 07Karlsruher SC
22
D
03/05/2026
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07
51
L
26/04/2026
SC Paderborn 07FC Schalke 04
23
L
18/04/2026
Hannover 96SC Paderborn 07
11
D

Referee Profile

Tobias Stieler223 matches

3.89Cards per match
3.73Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Stieler3.85
Other referees4.30

3.85 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.30).

Cards come from 212 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München752025:6+1917WWDWW
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund752012:4+817WDDWW
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg741216:9+713LLWDW
4Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen741216:12+413LWWWD
5RB LeipzigRB Leipzig740320:11+912WLWLW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen733115:14+112WDDWD
7FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05731316:13+310LWLWL
8SV ElversbergSV Elversberg731312:15-310LWLDL
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg723217:13+49DLDLD
101899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim730414:1409WWLLW
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV73046:16-109LWWWL
121. FC Köln1. FC Köln72238:11-38DLWLD
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0772236:9-38WDLWL
14Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt722310:17-78LWLDW
15VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart720510:13-36LLWLL
16FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0471334:7-36DLLDW
17Union BerlinUnion Berlin71336:18-126DDWLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach710611:22-113WLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, FSV Mainz 05 are 7th and SC Paderborn 07 13th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: FSV Mainz 05 16-13, SC Paderborn 07 6-9. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.