Concarneau vs Bastia Prediction

Concarneau
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Bastia
Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau 17/10/2026
ConcarneauConcarneau
1-1
Finished
BastiaBastia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalHIGHModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-7.0%
Concarneau Rest
13 days
Bastia Rest
15 days

Concarneau vs Bastia: the result in context

Concarneau and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 3 on 17 Oct 2026. Concarneau had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against 1 for Bastia.

Their history points to a close game: 5 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%1.95
X
31%3.15
2
25%3.67
Double Chance
1X
75%1.22
X2
56%1.73
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%2.00
No
53%1.72
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.03 = 2.31
Over 1.5
67%1.40
Over 2.5
42%2.22
Over 3.5
22%4.20
Under 1.5
33%2.71
Under 2.5
58%1.57
Under 3.5
78%1.20
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

24'G. Akueson
31'G. Lafontaine INK. Benabdelouahed out
50'N. Douce
53'C. Melieres
57'E. Garnier
62'L. Goujon
64'B. Macon INF. Da Silva out
65'G. Gbelle INL. Rosier out
70'C. Rodrigues INM. Boumaaoui out
70'H. Makalou INA. Zaouai out
80'F. Da Silva
81'L. Goujon INA. Sidibe out
84'C. Melieres IND. Djedje out
90'N. Alebate INM. Petrignani out
90'E. Garnier IND. Diarra out
90+2'M. Boumaaoui

Team Comparison

ConcarneauConcarneau
BastiaBastia
1533Elo Rating 1527
1.54Attack 0.81
2.17Defense 2.14
54%Hit Rate 14%

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

ConcarneauConcarneau
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BastiaBastia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

ConcarneauConcarneau0Wins · 0%
Draws480%
BastiaBastia1Wins · 20%
2.0Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
20%3+ goals1 of 5

Previous meetings

Ligue 223/04/2024
BastiaConcarneau
20
Ligue 205/08/2023
ConcarneauBastia
00
National 105/03/2021
BastiaConcarneau
11
National 102/10/2020
ConcarneauBastia
11
Coupe de France05/01/2019
SC BastiaConcarneau
5242

Recent Form

ConcarneauConcarneau
5W4D1L
03/10/2026
ConcarneauGobelins
21
W
26/09/2026
Bourg-en-bresse 01Concarneau
11
D
19/09/2026
ConcarneauCaen
20
W
12/09/2026
AubagneConcarneau
12
W
05/09/2026
ConcarneauThionville Lusitanos
22
D
29/08/2026
ValenciennesConcarneau
00
D
20/08/2026
ConcarneauVillefranche
20
W
14/08/2026
QuevillyConcarneau
11
D
07/08/2026
ConcarneauOrleans
02
L
31/07/2026
ConcarneauPontivy GSI
51
W
BastiaBastia
3W2D5L
01/10/2026
BastiaOrleans
11
D
26/09/2026
GobelinsBastia
10
L
17/09/2026
BastiaCannes
11
D
12/09/2026
Bourg-en-bresse 01Bastia
01
W
05/09/2026
BastiaAmiens
03
L
27/08/2026
CaenBastia
01
W
20/08/2026
BastiaVersailles
23
L
14/08/2026
AubagneBastia
01
W
07/08/2026
BastiaLe Puy Foot
02
L
10/07/2026
RodezBastia
53
L

League Table

Ligue 3 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1La Roche VFLa Roche VF1063116:10+621LWWWD
2RouenRouen1062218:8+1020LWLWW
3VersaillesVersailles1061315:13+219WWWDW
4CaenCaen1060419:13+618WLWLW
5ConcarneauConcarneau1045113:9+417DWDWW
6Le Puy FootLe Puy Foot1051412:9+316WWLWL
7AmiensAmiens1044213:4+916DWDWD
8CannesCannes1036112:6+615LWDDD
9Fleury 91Fleury 911043316:12+415WWLDW
10GobelinsGobelins1043310:10015WLWDL
11QuevillyQuevilly1034311:14-313WLDDW
12Thionville LusitanosThionville Lusitanos1033415:16-112LLLDL
13BastiaBastia103348:12-412DDLDW
14ValenciennesValenciennes1023510:15-59DLWLL
15OrleansOrleans102359:14-59LDDLL
16AubagneAubagne102176:13-77LLWLL
17VillefrancheVillefranche102179:23-147WLLLD
18Bourg-en-bresse 01Bourg-en-bresse 01101275:16-115LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1La Roche VFLa Roche VF1016:1021
2RouenRouen1018:820
3VersaillesVersailles1015:1319
4CaenCaen1019:1318
5ConcarneauConcarneau1013:917
6Le Puy FootLe Puy Foot1012:916
7AmiensAmiens1013:416
8CannesCannes1012:615
9Fleury 91Fleury 911016:1215
10GobelinsGobelins1010:1015
11QuevillyQuevilly1011:1413
12Thionville LusitanosThionville Lusitanos1015:1612
13BastiaBastia108:1212
14ValenciennesValenciennes1010:159
15OrleansOrleans109:149
16AubagneAubagne106:137
17VillefrancheVillefranche109:237
18Bourg-en-bresse 01Bourg-en-bresse 01105:165
PromotionRelegation

About the Concarneau vs Bastia forecast

The forecasts for this Ligue 3 match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Concarneau and Bastia in the Ligue 3 table

In the Ligue 3 table, Concarneau are 5th and Bastia 13th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Concarneau 13-9, Bastia 8-12. The full standings are on the Ligue 3 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.