FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction

FC Lugano
3-0
Finished
HT 3-0
Kauno Žalgiris
AIL Arena, Lugano·Yigal Frid, Israel 05/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.8 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.43
SignalGOODModel83%SurpriseMediumGap+0.1%
FC Lugano Rest
4 days
Kauno Žalgiris Rest
5 days

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: result, form and history

FC Lugano beat Kauno Žalgiris 3-0 in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 5 Nov 2026. It was in line with recent form: FC Lugano had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Kauno Žalgiris.

FC Lugano tend to win more corners, 3.7 a game to 1.6 for Kauno Žalgiris.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
85%1.15
X
10%7.75
2
5%17.00
Double Chance
1X
95%1.03
X2
15%5.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.15
No
55%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.18 + 0.92 = 3.10
Over 1.5
84%1.11
Over 2.5
65%1.43
Over 3.5
44%2.10
Under 1.5
16%5.87
Under 2.5
35%2.70
Under 3.5
56%1.74
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

11'Y. CimignaniAssist: D. Dos Santos
13'A. KalikTripping
24'E. Alioski
32'D. Dos SantosAssist: B. Karimov
46'D. Dos Santos INE. Pihlstrom out
46'L. Mai IND. Kelvin out
46'L. Krekovic INM. Burba out
46'A. Benchaib INY. Karashima out
51'A. TolordavaRoughing
59'D. KelvinHolding
61'G. Debeljuh INI. Fiolic out
61'A. Kalik INL. I. Kastrati out
70'A. Ajeti INK. Behrens out
70'U. Bislimi INA. Grgic out
77'Y. Cimignani INB. D. Castro Espinosa out
81'J. Moutachy ING. Sirgedas out

Lineups

FC Lugano
3-5-2
Kauno Žalgiris
5-4-1
Avg rating7.17
Avg rating6.39
David von Ballmoos6.716D. von Ballmoos
Antonios Papadopoulos7.66A. Papadopoulos
Lars Lukas Mai7.317L. Lukas Mai
Martim Marques6.626M. Marques
Bekhruz Karimov7.72B. Karimov
Yanis Cimignani7.521Y. Cimignani
Ahmed Kendouci7.914A. Kendouci
Uran Bislimi6.925U. Bislimi
Ezgjan AlioskiC7.97E. Alioski
Albian Ajeti6.29A. Ajeti
Daniel Dos Santos8.927D. Dos Santos
Deividas MikelionisC6.322D. Mikelionis
Joris Moutachy6.245J. Moutachy
Rokas Lekiatas6.377R. Lekiatas
Anton Tolordava6.93A. Tolordava
Aldayr Hernández5.923A. Hernández
Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor6.037N. Iyobosa Edokpolor
Amine Benchaib6.37A. Benchaib
Anthony Kalik6.220A. Kalik
Vykintas Slivka6.314V. Slivka
Leon Kreković6.39L. Kreković
Gabriel Debeljuh6.627G. Debeljuh

FC Lugano Substitutes

4Damian Kelvin46'for L. Mai59'7.2
24Elias Pihlström46'for D. Dos Santos6.5
28Felix Gebhardt
99Diego Mina
46Mattia Zanotti
18Joel Bichsel
8Anto Grgić70'for U. Bislimi6.9
91Kevin Behrens70'for A. Ajeti6.7
22Beckham Castro77'for Y. Cimignani6.2
33Christian Raffa

Kauno Žalgiris Substitutes

8Yukiyoshi Karashima46'for A. Benchaib7.3
24Motiejus Burba46'for L. Krekovic5.9
62Lirim Kastrati61'for A. Kalik6.9
17Ivan Fiolić61'for G. Debeljuh6.5
55Tomas Švedkauskas
15Léo Ribeiro
70Fabien Ourega
10Gratas Sirgėdas81'for J. Moutachy
47Vejas Pocius
74Adomas Užkurnys

Match Stats

FC LuganoKauno Žalgiris
65%Ball Possession35%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots5
5Shots on Goal1
8Shots off Goal1
9Shots Inside Box2
5Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots3
8Fouls14
3Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves2
691Total Passes362
626Passes Accurate283
91%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

FC LuganoFC Lugano
Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris
1890Elo Rating 1689
3.24Attack 1.22
2.05Defense 1.30
100%Hit Rate 37%
13.5Shots per Game 7.7
6.1Shots on Target 1.4
3.7Corners per Game 1.6
2.5Cards per Game 3.1

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+201 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.1 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC LuganoFC Lugano
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (2.4 vs 0.9 in second half)
Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Referee Profile

Yigal Frid3 matches analysed

4.37Cards per match
4.13Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 39% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

UEFA Europa Conference League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC LuganoFC Lugano330011:4+79WWW
2PanathinaikosPanathinaikos33009:3+69WWW
3TwenteTwente33008:2+69WWW
4MonacoMonaco33007:1+69WWW
5BrightonBrighton32105:0+57WDW
6BrannBrann32107:3+47DWW
7FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen32107:3+47WDW
8Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea Craiova32106:2+47WWD
9Mjallby AIFMjallby AIF32105:1+47WDW
10St. TruidenSt. Truiden32104:1+37DWW
11AjaxAjax32019:3+66WWL
12TrabzonsporTrabzonspor32016:3+36LWW
13HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split32013:2+16LWW
14SC FreiburgSC Freiburg32014:5-16WLW
15FK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena Zvezda31116:604WDL
16AtalantaAtalanta31114:404DLW
17SC BragaSC Braga31112:3-14DWL
18GentGent31111:2-14DLW
19RigaRiga30303:303DDD
20FC ThunFC Thun31023:303WLL
21Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka31023:4-13LWL
22Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC31023:6-33WLL
23FK JablonecFK Jablonec30213:4-12DDL
24AarhusAarhus30211:2-12DDL
25FC NordsjaellandFC Nordsjaelland30213:5-22LDD
26Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë30212:4-22LDD
27Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty30213:7-42DLD
28CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia30124:6-21LDL
29FC Iberia 1999FC Iberia 199930122:5-31LDL
30PafosPafos30123:7-41LDL
31GetafeGetafe30123:7-41LLD
32Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian30122:6-41LLD
33KuPSKuPS30122:6-41DLL
34FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland30122:8-61LLD
35Inter Club d'EscaldesInter Club d'Escaldes30032:7-50LLL
36Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris30031:11-100LLL
Conference League

About the FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris forecast

This is a UEFA Europa Conference League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris in the UEFA Europa Conference League table

The table shows a wide gap: FC Lugano are 1st in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Kauno Žalgiris sit 36th, 9 points behind. League goal record so far: FC Lugano 11-4, Kauno Žalgiris 1-11. The full standings are on the UEFA Europa Conference League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

FC Lugano have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some of the data for this fixture is limited, so the model gives it a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.