FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda Prediction
World · League Stage - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.8 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.40
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseHighGap-5.3%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.40
SignalHIGHModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+4.0%
FC Lugano Rest
5 days
FK Crvena Zvezda Rest
4 days
FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda: result, form and history
FC Lugano beat FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2 in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 15 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Referee Florian Badstubner averages 3.63 cards a game, 0.58 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
145%2.26
X26%3.54
229%2.89
Double Chance
1X71%1.40
X255%1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes58%1.53
No42%2.35
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.48 + 1.23 = 2.71
Over 1.578%1.20
Over 2.556%1.67
Over 3.534%2.62
Under 1.522%4.33
Under 2.544%2.15
Under 3.566%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.9 + 3.5 = 9.4
Over 8.561%1.60
Over 9.543%2.02
Over 10.533%2.67
Under 8.539%2.17
Under 9.557%1.72
Under 10.567%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.4
Over 3.564%1.32
Over 4.545%1.65
Under 3.536%3.20
Under 4.555%2.15
Match Events
25'A. AjetiAssist: R. Steffen
32'T. ElsnikAssist: M. Gashtarov
33'V. KostovUnsportsmanlike conduct
53'R. SteffenTripping
55'L. MaiRoughing
63'R. Steffen INE. Pihlstrom out
63'A. Ajeti INK. Behrens out
64'T. Handel INM. Cham out
67'R. KrunicAssist: M. Cham
73'B. Karimov IND. Moncada out
75'M. Ristic INM. Strika out
75'V. Lucic INK. Balov out
79'H. Delcroix INE. Alioski out
79'D. Dos Santos INB. D. Castro Espinosa out
81'B. Dieng INM. Arnautovic out
81'R. Krunic INM. Bajo out
82'S. GudeljRoughing
84'D. MoncadaAssist: Y. Cimignani
88'M. Bajo
89'A. Grgic(Penalty)
90+4'M. GashtarovRoughing
Lineups
FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda
5-4-1Avg ratingAvg rating
16D. von Ballmoos
6A. Papadopoulos
17L. Lukas Mai
3H. Delcroix
2B. Karimov
25U. Bislimi
8A. Grgić
21Y. Cimignani
C11R. Steffen
27D. Dos Santos
9A. Ajeti
1Matheus
37V. Lučić
60M. Gaštarov
45S. Gudelj
3Y. Nakayama
23M. Ristić
21T. Max Elšnik
C33R. Krunić
20T. Händel
22V. Kostov
9A. Bamba DiengFC Lugano Substitutes
24Elias Pihlström63'for R. Steffen
91Kevin Behrens63'for A. Ajeti
30Dereck Moncada73'for B. Karimov84'
99Diego Mina
28Felix Gebhardt
4Damian Kelvin
7Ezgjan Alioski79'for H. Delcroix
26Martim Marques
22Beckham Castro79'for D. Dos Santos
14Ahmed Kendouci
FK Crvena Zvezda Substitutes
70Muhammed-Cham Saračević64'for T. Handel
50Savo Radanović
77Ivan Guteša
30Franklin Tebo
27Matej Strika75'for M. Ristic
13Miloš Veljković
55Dimitrije Šarić
8Kristiyan Balov75'for V. Lucic
19Ye-geon Kim
6Mahmudu Bajo81'for R. Krunic88'
7Marko Arnautović81'for B. Dieng
Match Stats
FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda 41%Ball Possession59%
5Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards4
18Total Shots20
5Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal11
8Shots Inside Box7
10Shots Outside Box13
6Blocked Shots4
9Fouls11
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves2
384Total Passes545
329Passes Accurate491
86%Pass Accuracy90%
Team Comparison
FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda1870Elo Rating 1786
4.07Attack 2.99
2.07Defense 1.65
100%Hit Rate 54%
16.0Shots per Game 21.1
6.1Shots on Target 7.9
4.8Corners per Game 5.3
3.4Cards per Game 2.8
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
FC Lugano- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
FK Crvena Zvezda- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.2 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Recent Form
FC Lugano7W2D1L
10/10/2026FC Lugano
FC Luzern
LausanneFC LuganoFC Lugano
FC ST. GallenFC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893FC LuganoFC Lugano
Servette FC
FC SionFC Lugano
Maccabi Tel AvivFC LuganoFC LuganoMaccabi Tel Aviv
FC LuganoFC Luzern40
W02/10/2026FC Lugano
Hellas Verona
20/09/2026FC LuganoHellas Verona13
LLausanneFC Lugano04
W16/09/2026FC LuganoFC ST. Gallen41
W12/09/2026FC LuganoBSC Young Boys22
D06/09/2026FC Basel 1893FC Lugano13
W03/09/2026FC LuganoServette FC10
W30/08/2026FC SionFC Lugano12
W27/08/2026Maccabi Tel AvivFC Lugano11
D20/08/2026FC LuganoMaccabi Tel Aviv21
WFK Crvena Zvezda8W1D1L
10/10/2026
Radnicki 1923FK Crvena Zvezda
Železničar PančevoFK Crvena Zvezda
IMT Novi BeogradFK Crvena Zvezda
Radnik SurdulicaFK Crvena Zvezda
PlzenFK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena Zvezda
CukarickiFK Crvena ZvezdaPlzen
Radnicki 1923FK Crvena Zvezda03
W20/09/2026FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
17/09/2026FK Crvena ZvezdaRadnicki NIS30
WŽelezničar PančevoFK Crvena Zvezda12
W13/09/2026IMT Novi BeogradFK Crvena Zvezda01
W10/09/2026Radnik SurdulicaFK Crvena Zvezda00
D06/09/2026FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Partizan
FK Crvena ZvezdaFK Partizan21
W30/08/2026
ZemunFK Crvena Zvezda
27/08/2026ZemunFK Crvena Zvezda02
WPlzenFK Crvena Zvezda5411
L23/08/2026FK Crvena ZvezdaCukaricki40
W20/08/2026FK Crvena ZvezdaPlzen30
WReferee Profile
3.63Cards per match
3.45Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.63 cards a match, 0.58 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.21).
Cards come from 154 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | +4 | 6 | WW |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | +3 | 6 | WW |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | +2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:0 | +4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | +3 | 4 | DW |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 4 | WD |
| 12 |  Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | +2 | 4 | DW |
| 13 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | +1 | 3 | WL |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 3 | LW |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 | LD |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:8 | -7 | 0 | LL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 1:8 | 0 |
Conference League
Explore more predictions
This match
- FC Lugano Predictions
- FK Crvena Zvezda Predictions
- UEFA Europa Conference League Predictions
- UEFA Europa Conference League Standings
- UEFA Europa Conference League Stats 2026
- UEFA Europa Conference League top scorers
- UEFA Europa Conference League Knockout Rounds
- UEFA Europa Conference League Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More UEFA Europa Conference League matches
About the FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda forecast
This is a UEFA Europa Conference League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About UEFA Europa Conference League
More UEFA Europa Conference League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Europa Conference League Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
FC Lugano have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. FK Crvena Zvezda have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.