Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Prediction

GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond·W. Wiersma 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.51
SignalHIGHModel33%SurpriseHighGap+12.2%
Helmond Sport Rest
7 days
De Graafschap Rest
8 days

Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap: the result in context

Helmond Sport and De Graafschap drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie on 9 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

De Graafschap have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Referee W. Wiersma averages 4.44 cards a game, 0.98 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%3.27
X
26%3.50
2
42%2.10
Double Chance
1X
58%1.68
X2
68%1.32
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.47
No
44%2.47
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.18 + 1.42 = 2.60
Over 1.5
75%1.16
Over 2.5
50%1.57
Over 3.5
27%2.38
Under 1.5
25%4.50
Under 2.5
50%2.25
Under 3.5
73%1.51
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

9'D. HuibertsAssist: L. Cicero
45+3'F. de JongAssist: N. Ahmeti
46'N. Kaninda INJ. Kania out
57'L. Bajrami INK. Ekoli out
57'L. Cicero INM. Lenaerts out
61'N. Ahmeti INC. Eroglu out
65'D. HuibertsFoul
66'H. IngasonUnsportsmanlike conduct
66'D. WarmerdamUnsportsmanlike conduct
70'D. Huiberts INO. Zimuangana out
74'J. Meerstadt INJ. Wieckhoff out
74'D. Eijken INB. van Zijl out
78'C. Leemans INM. Smits out
90+2'J. WieckhoffFoul

Lineups

Helmond Sport
4-4-2Coach: Jurgen Seegers
De Graafschap
4-2-3-1Coach: Marinus Dijkhuizen
Avg rating6.95
Avg rating6.79
Menno Bergsen6.91M. Bergsen
Sem Dekkers7.520S. Dekkers
Brian KoglinC7.24B. Koglin
Tijn Landheer6.343T. Landheer
Wassim Lantaki6.317W. Lantaki
Dean Huiberts7.310D. Huiberts
Michel Ludwig7.06M. Ludwig
Xander van der Velde7.944X. van der Velde
Helgi Fróði Ingason7.219H. Fróði Ingason
Livio Cicero7.311L. Cicero
Labinot Bajrami6.79L. Bajrami
Ties Wieggers7.31T. Wieggers
Jason Meerstadt6.324J. Meerstadt
Joran Hardeman7.24J. Hardeman
Gijs Bolk7.514G. Bolk
Kaya Symons6.921K. Symons
Clint LeemansC7.96C. Leemans
Donny Warmerdam6.38D. Warmerdam
Denzel Eijken6.618D. Eijken
Fedde De Jong7.310F. De Jong
Nart Ahmeti6.727N. Ahmeti
Nathan Kaninda6.217N. Kaninda

Helmond Sport Substitutes

30Kiton Ekoli57'for L. Bajrami6.9
94Mauro Lenaerts6.5
29Onesime Zimuangana70'for D. Huiberts6.3
21Wessel van der Heijden
23Adam El Maach
26Diego van Zutphen
48Rayen van Bree
47Dayen Geerts
22Alen Dizdarević

De Graafschap Substitutes

9Julian Kania46'for N. Kaninda6.2
37Cem Eroglu61'for N. Ahmeti6.5
2Jannes Wieckhoff74'for J. Meerstadt90+2'6.7
7Bjorn van Zijl74'for D. Eijken6.3
38Milan Smits78'for C. Leemans6.7
31Sam Bouwman
23Rick Jonkers
32Tygo Grotenhuis
34Nic Hartgers
36Tim Braem

Match Stats

Helmond SportDe Graafschap
36%Ball Possession64%
7Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
10Total Shots16
3Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal10
6Shots Inside Box15
4Shots Outside Box1
1Blocked Shots3
12Fouls15
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves2
318Total Passes576
237Passes Accurate491
75%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

Helmond SportHelmond Sport
De GraafschapDe Graafschap
1428Elo Rating 1517
2.42Attack 1.18
0.00Defense 1.83
27%Hit Rate 41%
15.8Shots per Game 14.4
5.0Shots on Target 4.8
4.9Corners per Game 5.7
2.0Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Helmond SportHelmond Sport
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.8 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
De GraafschapDe Graafschap
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Helmond SportHelmond Sport3Wins · 30%
Draws110%
De GraafschapDe Graafschap6Wins · 60%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Eerste Divisie31/01/2026
Helmond SportDe Graafschap
00
Eerste Divisie21/11/2025
De GraafschapHelmond Sport
31
Eerste Divisie09/05/2025
Helmond SportDe Graafschap
14
Eerste Divisie13/09/2024
De GraafschapHelmond Sport
23
Eerste Divisie16/02/2024
Helmond SportDe Graafschap
31
Eerste Divisie18/09/2023
De GraafschapHelmond Sport
21
Eerste Divisie06/03/2023
De GraafschapHelmond Sport
20
Eerste Divisie18/11/2022
Helmond SportDe Graafschap
02
Eerste Divisie22/04/2022
Helmond SportDe Graafschap
04
Eerste Divisie10/12/2021
De GraafschapHelmond Sport
01

Recent Form

Helmond SportHelmond Sport
2W4D4L
01/08/2026
Helmond SportSt. Truiden
10
W
07/07/2026
GemertHelmond Sport
11
D
04/07/2026
Helmond SportAEK Larnaca
12
L
01/07/2026
Helmond SportPanathinaikos
04
L
24/04/2026
FC EindhovenHelmond Sport
10
L
17/04/2026
Helmond SportVVV Venlo
20
W
10/04/2026
MVVHelmond Sport
00
D
06/04/2026
Helmond SportWaalwijk
22
D
03/04/2026
Jong AZHelmond Sport
20
L
20/03/2026
RodaHelmond Sport
11
D
De GraafschapDe Graafschap
3W1D6L
01/08/2026
De GraafschapExcelsior
15
L
25/07/2026
De GraafschapKifisia
42
W
17/07/2026
De GraafschapTelstar
36
L
12/07/2026
De GraafschapAEK Athens FC
12
L
03/07/2026
HeerenveenDe Graafschap
72
L
27/06/2026
UtrechtDe Graafschap
12
W
09/05/2026
De GraafschapAlmere City FC
22
D
06/05/2026
Almere City FCDe Graafschap
31
L
24/04/2026
EmmenDe Graafschap
10
L
17/04/2026
De GraafschapCambuur
31
W

Referee Profile

W. Wiersma104 matches

4.44Cards per match
4.28Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

W. Wiersma4.44
Other referees3.46

4.44 cards a match, 0.98 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.46).

Cards come from 71 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eerste Divisie 2026

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HeraclesHeracles1292137:14+2329DWWDW
2VVV VenloVVV Venlo1391336:21+1528WWDWW
3Almere City FCAlmere City FC1381427:13+1425WLLWW
4RodaRoda1374217:12+525WWWDL
5EmmenEmmen1381426:24+225LWWWD
6NAC BredaNAC Breda1263323:20+321DWWDW
7FC VolendamFC Volendam1361630:22+819LWDWL
8Den BoschDen Bosch1353523:21+218WDWWD
9VitesseVitesse1252516:17-117LWLDL
10Jong AZJong AZ1352632:28+417LWDLW
11MVVMVV1352617:29-1217LDLLL
12Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U211244417:19-216WLDLD
13WaalwijkWaalwijk1337322:19+316LDDLD
14De GraafschapDe Graafschap1343617:27-1015WDLWD
15FC OSSFC OSS1241719:20-113DLWWL
16Jong AjaxJong Ajax1233618:29-1112DWLDL
17Helmond SportHelmond Sport1333723:28-512WLLLD
18DordrechtDordrecht1232716:31-1511LWLDW
19FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven1332818:28-1011LLLLD
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht1221919:31-127LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1HeraclesHeracles1237:1429
2VVV VenloVVV Venlo1336:2128
3Almere City FCAlmere City FC1327:1325
4RodaRoda1317:1225
5EmmenEmmen1326:2425
6NAC BredaNAC Breda1223:2021
7FC VolendamFC Volendam1330:2219
8Den BoschDen Bosch1323:2118
9VitesseVitesse1216:1717
10Jong AZJong AZ1332:2817
11MVVMVV1317:2917
12Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U211217:1916
13WaalwijkWaalwijk1322:1916
14De GraafschapDe Graafschap1317:2715
15FC OSSFC OSS1219:2013
16Jong AjaxJong Ajax1218:2912
17Helmond SportHelmond Sport1323:2812
18DordrechtDordrecht1216:3111
19FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven1318:2811
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht1219:317

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HeraclesHeracles1081131:12+1925DWWDW
2Almere City FCAlmere City FC1071222:7+1522WLLWW
3VVV VenloVVV Venlo1070326:14+1221WWDWW
4EmmenEmmen1061322:18+419LWWWD
5NAC BredaNAC Breda1052320:19+117DWWDW
6RodaRoda1044210:8+216WWWDL
7MVVMVV1051413:20-716LDLLL
8FC VolendamFC Volendam1050522:17+515LWDWL
9WaalwijkWaalwijk1035219:15+414LDDLD
10VitesseVitesse1042415:15014LWLDL
11Jong AZJong AZ1041522:18+413LWDLW
12Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U211034315:17-213WLDLD
13FC OSSFC OSS1040615:15012DLWWL
14Den BoschDen Bosch1032514:18-411WDWWD
15FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven1032515:22-711LLLLD
16De GraafschapDe Graafschap1032513:23-1011WDLWD
17Helmond SportHelmond Sport1023516:19-39WLLLD
18Jong AjaxJong Ajax1022613:25-128DWLDL
19DordrechtDordrecht1022613:27-148LWLDW
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht1021716:23-77LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1HeraclesHeracles1031:1225
2Almere City FCAlmere City FC1022:722
3VVV VenloVVV Venlo1026:1421
4EmmenEmmen1022:1819
5NAC BredaNAC Breda1020:1917
6RodaRoda1010:816
7MVVMVV1013:2016
8FC VolendamFC Volendam1022:1715
9WaalwijkWaalwijk1019:1514
10VitesseVitesse1015:1514
11Jong AZJong AZ1022:1813
12Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U211015:1713
13FC OSSFC OSS1015:1512
14Den BoschDen Bosch1014:1811
15FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven1015:2211
16De GraafschapDe Graafschap1013:2311
17Helmond SportHelmond Sport1016:199
18Jong AjaxJong Ajax1013:258
19DordrechtDordrecht1013:278
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht1016:237

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1RodaRoda33007:4+39WWWDL
2Den BoschDen Bosch32109:3+67WDWWD
3VVV VenloVVV Venlo321010:7+37WWDWW
4EmmenEmmen32014:6-26LWWWD
5HeraclesHeracles21106:2+44DWWDW
6NAC BredaNAC Breda21103:1+24DWWDW
7Jong AjaxJong Ajax21105:4+14DWLDL
8FC VolendamFC Volendam31118:5+34LWDWL
9De GraafschapDe Graafschap31114:404WDLWD
10Jong AZJong AZ311110:1004LWDLW
11Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U2121012:203WLDLD
12DordrechtDordrecht21013:4-13LWLDW
13VitesseVitesse21011:2-13LWLDL
14Almere City FCAlmere City FC31025:6-13WLLWW
15Helmond SportHelmond Sport31027:9-23WLLLD
16WaalwijkWaalwijk30213:4-12LDDLD
17FC OSSFC OSS20114:5-11DLWWL
18MVVMVV30124:9-51LDLLL
19Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht20023:8-50LLLLW
20FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven30033:6-30LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1RodaRoda37:49
2Den BoschDen Bosch39:37
3VVV VenloVVV Venlo310:77
4EmmenEmmen34:66
5HeraclesHeracles26:24
6NAC BredaNAC Breda23:14
7Jong AjaxJong Ajax25:44
8FC VolendamFC Volendam38:54
9De GraafschapDe Graafschap34:44
10Jong AZJong AZ310:104
11Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U2122:23
12DordrechtDordrecht23:43
13VitesseVitesse21:23
14Almere City FCAlmere City FC35:63
15Helmond SportHelmond Sport37:93
16WaalwijkWaalwijk33:42
17FC OSSFC OSS24:51
18MVVMVV34:91
19Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht23:80
20FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven33:60

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1De GraafschapDe Graafschap00000:000WDLWD
2VVV VenloVVV Venlo00000:000WWDWW
3Den BoschDen Bosch00000:000WDWWD
4DordrechtDordrecht00000:000LWLDW
5FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven00000:000LLLLD
6EmmenEmmen00000:000LWWWD
7Helmond SportHelmond Sport00000:000WLLLD
8MVVMVV00000:000LDLLL
9Almere City FCAlmere City FC00000:000WLLWW
10FC OSSFC OSS00000:000DLWWL
11FC VolendamFC Volendam00000:000LWDWL
12WaalwijkWaalwijk00000:000LDDLD
13NAC BredaNAC Breda00000:000DWWDW
14RodaRoda00000:000WWWDL
15VitesseVitesse00000:000LWLDL
16HeraclesHeracles00000:000DWWDW
17Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U2100000:000WLDLD
18Jong AjaxJong Ajax00000:000DWLDL
19Jong AZJong AZ00000:000LWDLW
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht00000:000LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1De GraafschapDe Graafschap00:00
2VVV VenloVVV Venlo00:00
3Den BoschDen Bosch00:00
4DordrechtDordrecht00:00
5FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven00:00
6EmmenEmmen00:00
7Helmond SportHelmond Sport00:00
8MVVMVV00:00
9Almere City FCAlmere City FC00:00
10FC OSSFC OSS00:00
11FC VolendamFC Volendam00:00
12WaalwijkWaalwijk00:00
13NAC BredaNAC Breda00:00
14RodaRoda00:00
15VitesseVitesse00:00
16HeraclesHeracles00:00
17Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U2100:00
18Jong AjaxJong Ajax00:00
19Jong AZJong AZ00:00
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht00:00

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1De GraafschapDe Graafschap00000:000WDLWD
2VVV VenloVVV Venlo00000:000WWDWW
3Den BoschDen Bosch00000:000WDWWD
4DordrechtDordrecht00000:000LWLDW
5FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven00000:000LLLLD
6EmmenEmmen00000:000LWWWD
7Helmond SportHelmond Sport00000:000WLLLD
8MVVMVV00000:000LDLLL
9Almere City FCAlmere City FC00000:000WLLWW
10FC OSSFC OSS00000:000DLWWL
11FC VolendamFC Volendam00000:000LWDWL
12WaalwijkWaalwijk00000:000LDDLD
13NAC BredaNAC Breda00000:000DWWDW
14RodaRoda00000:000WWWDL
15VitesseVitesse00000:000LWLDL
16HeraclesHeracles00000:000DWWDW
17Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U2100000:000WLDLD
18Jong AjaxJong Ajax00000:000DWLDL
19Jong AZJong AZ00000:000LWDLW
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht00000:000LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1De GraafschapDe Graafschap00:00
2VVV VenloVVV Venlo00:00
3Den BoschDen Bosch00:00
4DordrechtDordrecht00:00
5FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven00:00
6EmmenEmmen00:00
7Helmond SportHelmond Sport00:00
8MVVMVV00:00
9Almere City FCAlmere City FC00:00
10FC OSSFC OSS00:00
11FC VolendamFC Volendam00:00
12WaalwijkWaalwijk00:00
13NAC BredaNAC Breda00:00
14RodaRoda00:00
15VitesseVitesse00:00
16HeraclesHeracles00:00
17Jong PSV U21Jong PSV U2100:00
18Jong AjaxJong Ajax00:00
19Jong AZJong AZ00:00
20Jong UtrechtJong Utrecht00:00
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About the Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap forecast

The forecasts for this Eerste Divisie match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie table

In the Eerste Divisie table, De Graafschap are 14th and Helmond Sport 17th, 3 points apart. League goal record so far: Helmond Sport 23-28, De Graafschap 17-27. The full standings are on the Eerste Divisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.