Marseille vs Paris FC Prediction

Marseille
2-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Paris FC
C. Turpin 06/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 3.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+12.8%
Marseille Rest
7 days
Paris FC Rest
7 days

Marseille vs Paris FC: result, form and history

Paris FC beat Marseille 3-2 in the Ligue 1 on 6 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee C. Turpin averages 3.58 cards a game, 0.52 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%1.81
X
28%3.86
2
27%4.20
Double Chance
1X
73%1.24
X2
55%1.99
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.62
No
39%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 1.27 = 2.83
Over 1.5
83%1.21
Over 2.5
60%1.69
Over 3.5
36%2.64
Under 1.5
17%4.33
Under 2.5
40%2.20
Under 3.5
64%1.47
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.3 = 9.8
Over 8.5
63%1.53
Over 9.5
52%1.89
Over 10.5
40%2.44
Under 8.5
37%2.33
Under 9.5
48%1.85
Under 10.5
60%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 1.6 = 3
Over 3.5
36%1.91
Over 4.5
19%2.81
Under 3.5
64%1.80
Under 4.5
81%1.37

Match Events

1'Lassine SinayokoAssist: Luca Koleosho
8'Amine Gouiri
19'Lassine SinayokoAssist: Pablo Pagis
53'Amine GouiriAssist: Amine Harit
64'Pablo Pagis INRudy Matondo out
65'Rudy MatondoFoul
72'Igor Paixão INTadjidine Mmadi out
73'Angel Gomes INKeyliane Abdallah out
73'Nayef Aguerd INDerek Cornelius out
78'Luca Koleosho INMoses Simon out
78'Ilan Kebbal INPatrick Zabi out
83'Penalty confirmedMoses Simon
86'Lassine Sinayoko(Penalty)
87'Lassine Sinayoko
90+1'Maxime López INMoustapha Mbow out
90+1'Lassine Sinayoko INOmar Sissoko out
90+1'Emerson Palmieri INUlisses Garcia out
90+1'Himad Abdelli INFaris Moumbagna out

Lineups

Marseille
4-1-4-1Coach: Bruno Genesio
Paris FC
5-4-1Coach: L. Rosenior
Avg rating6.62
Avg rating6.66
J. de Lange6.61J. de Lange
T. Weah6.522T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley6.74C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd6.421N. Aguerd
Emerson6.433Emerson
P. Højbjerg6.823P. Højbjerg
A. Harit7.677A. Harit
H. Abdelli6.58H. Abdelli
A. Gomes6.27A. Gomes
Igor Paixão6.314I. Paixão
A. Gouiri8.49A. Gouiri
K. Trapp6.01K. Trapp
A. Camara6.217A. Camara
S. Chergui6.131S. Chergui
D. Coppola6.042D. Coppola
H. Traoré6.414H. Traoré
L. Koleosho7.215L. Koleosho
I. Kebbal6.610I. Kebbal
M. Lopez6.420M. Lopez
P. Lees-Melou6.833P. Lees-Melou
P. Pagis7.77P. Pagis
L. Sinayoko9.29L. Sinayoko

Marseille Substitutes

43T. Mmadi72'for Igor Paixão6.3
18Bamo Meite
11N. Maupay
25U. Garcia90+1'for Emerson Palmieri
13D. Cornelius73'for Nayef Aguerd5.9
48K. Abdallah73'for Angel Gomes6.0
29F. Moumbagna90+1'for Himad Abdelli
92T. Vermot
42Nouhoum Kamissoko

Paris FC Substitutes

8E. Zabi78'for Ilan Kebbal6.1
25Y. Koré
11J. Krasso
4V. Marchetti
23R. Matondo64'for Pablo Pagis65'5.6
5M. Mbow90+1'for Maxime López
16O. Nkambadio
27M. Simon78'for Luca Koleosho6.9
18O. Sissoko90+1'for Lassine Sinayoko

Match Stats

MarseilleParis FC
61%Ball Possession39%
5Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal7
7Shots off Goal8
10Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots3
10Fouls12
2Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves3
644Total Passes420
597Passes Accurate348
93%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

MarseilleMarseille
Paris FCParis FC
1756Elo Rating 1792
2.33Attack 1.52
1.41Defense 1.41
61%Hit Rate 39%
12.8Shots per Game 12.4
4.2Shots on Target 4.6
4.9Corners per Game 3.8
1.6Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.83 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MarseilleMarseille
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Paris FCParis FC
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

MarseilleMarseille1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
Paris FCParis FC0Wins · 0%
5.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

Ligue 131/01/2026
Paris FCMarseille
22
Ligue 123/08/2025
MarseilleParis FC
52

Recent Form

MarseilleMarseille
5W1D4L
30/08/2026
MonacoMarseille
20
L
21/08/2026
MarseilleStrasbourg
40
W
14/08/2026
MarseilleAtletico Madrid
12
L
09/08/2026
MarseilleAthletic Club
31
W
30/07/2026
MarseilleNimes
21
W
17/05/2026
MarseilleRennes
31
W
10/05/2026
Le HavreMarseille
01
W
02/05/2026
NantesMarseille
30
L
26/04/2026
MarseilleNice
11
D
18/04/2026
LorientMarseille
20
L
Paris FCParis FC
5W1D4L
30/08/2026
Paris FCNice
30
W
22/08/2026
Estac TroyesParis FC
00
D
15/08/2026
AngersParis FC
32
L
01/08/2026
VfB StuttgartParis FC
21
L
18/07/2026
Paris FCReims
10
W
17/05/2026
Paris FCParis Saint Germain
21
W
10/05/2026
RennesParis FC
21
L
03/05/2026
Paris FCStade Brestois 29
40
W
26/04/2026
Paris FCLille
01
L
19/04/2026
MetzParis FC
13
W

Referee Profile

C. Turpin268 matches

3.58Cards per match
3.34Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
23.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

C. Turpin3.58
Other referees4.10

3.58 cards a match, 0.52 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.10).

Cards come from 261 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain962121:10+1120WWWWW
2LilleLille953112:6+618WDDWL
3LyonLyon952215:7+817WLWLW
4Paris FCParis FC952216:10+617WLWLW
5RennesRennes951320:19+116LWLWL
6MarseilleMarseille950420:13+715WWWWL
7MonacoMonaco943212:10+215LDLDW
8NiceNice942313:12+114WWLWW
9LensLens941416:13+313LWWWL
10LorientLorient83327:6+112DWWLD
11ToulouseToulouse924312:13-110LDWDW
12StrasbourgStrasbourg931517:19-210WLLLL
13AuxerreAuxerre931513:23-1010LDWLW
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29823314:12+29LDWLL
15AngersAngers92259:17-88LDLLW
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes92257:16-98WDLLL
17Le MansLe Mans914411:18-77LDLLW
18Le HavreLe Havre90279:20-112LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain921:1020
2LilleLille912:618
3LyonLyon915:717
4Paris FCParis FC916:1017
5RennesRennes920:1916
6MarseilleMarseille920:1315
7MonacoMonaco912:1015
8NiceNice913:1214
9LensLens916:1313
10LorientLorient87:612
11ToulouseToulouse912:1310
12StrasbourgStrasbourg917:1910
13AuxerreAuxerre913:2310
14Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29814:129
15AngersAngers99:178
16Estac TroyesEstac Troyes97:168
17Le MansLe Mans911:187
18Le HavreLe Havre99:202
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Marseille vs Paris FC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Marseille and Paris FC in the Ligue 1 table

Paris FC and Marseille are close in the Ligue 1 table, 4th and 6th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Marseille 20-13, Paris FC 16-10. The full standings are on the Ligue 1 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Paris FC have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Marseille and Paris FC have met only 2 times recently, averaging 5.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.