Mexico vs South Africa Prediction

Mexico
2-0
Finished
HT 1-0
South Africa
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City·Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 11/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.38
SignalHIGHModel23%SurpriseHighGap+4.6%
Mexico Rest
6 days
South Africa Rest
13 days

Mexico vs South Africa: result, form and history

Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 in the World Cup on 11 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Mexico had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for South Africa.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.40
X
39%4.40
2
9%8.50
Double Chance
1X
91%1.08
X2
48%2.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.45
No
47%1.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.85 + 0.92 = 2.77
Over 1.5
73%1.38
Over 2.5
47%2.20
Over 3.5
25%4.00
Under 1.5
27%3.00
Under 2.5
53%1.69
Under 3.5
75%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.8 = 8.6
Over 8.5
52%1.85
Over 9.5
47%2.40
Over 10.5
34%3.17
Under 8.5
48%1.82
Under 9.5
53%1.53
Under 10.5
66%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.1 = 3.9
Over 3.5
59%1.63
Over 4.5
36%2.27
Under 3.5
41%2.15
Under 4.5
64%1.57

Match Events

9'J. QuinonesAssist: E. Lira
17'T. MokoenaTripping
23'B. GutierrezTripping
49'Y. SitholeTripping
56'L. Foster INT. Mbatha out
61'J. Adams INT. Zwane out
66'B. Gutierrez INL. Chavez out
66'A. Fidalgo ING. Mora out
67'R. JimenezAssist: R. Alvarado
74'N. SibisiRoughing
76'E. Lira INE. Alvarez out
76'R. Jimenez INA. Gonzalez out
77'I. Rayners INE. Makgopa out
77'A. Modiba INO. Appollis out
79'J. Quinones INA. Vega out
84'T. ZwaneElbowing
90+2'C. MontesTripping

Lineups

Mexico
4-1-4-1Coach: Javier Aguirre
South Africa
5-3-2Coach: Hugo Broos
Avg rating7.07
Avg rating6.20
Raúl Rangel7.21R. Rangel
Israel Reyes7.015I. Reyes
César MontesC6.93C. Montes
Johan Vásquez6.95J. Vásquez
Jesús Gallardo6.623J. Gallardo
Erik Lira7.36E. Lira
Roberto Alvarado8.025R. Alvarado
Brian Gutiérrez6.926B. Gutiérrez
Álvaro Fidalgo7.28Á. Fidalgo
Julián Quiñones8.516J. Quiñones
Raúl Jiménez7.99R. Jiménez
Ronwen WilliamsC6.61R. Williams
Khuliso Mudau6.520K. Mudau
Nkosinathi Sibisi6.019N. Sibisi
Ime Okon6.221I. Okon
Mbekezeli Mbokazi6.314M. Mbokazi
Aubrey Modiba5.96A. Modiba
Teboho Mokoena6.34T. Mokoena
Siphephelo Sithole5.213S. Sithole
Jayden Adams6.723J. Adams
Iqraam Rayners6.315I. Rayners
Lyle Foster5.99L. Foster

Mexico Substitutes

19Gilberto Mora66'for A. Fidalgo6.5
24Luis Chávez66'for B. Gutierrez6.6
12Carlos Acevedo
13Guillermo Ochoa
2Jorge Sánchez
7Luis Romo
20Mateo Chávez
10Alexis Vega79'for J. Quinones6.5
21César Huerta
4Edson Álvarez76'for E. Lira6.9
18Obed Vargas
17Orbelín Pineda
14Armando González76'for R. Jimenez6.2
22Guillermo Martínez
11Santiago Giménez

South Africa Substitutes

5Thalente Mbatha56'for L. Foster6.3
11Themba Zwane61'for J. Adams84'5.5
22Ricardo Goss
16Sipho Chaine
26Bradley Cross
3Khulumani Ndamane
24Olwethu Makhanya
18Samukelo Kabini
2Tholo Thabang Matuludi
7Oswin Appollis77'for A. Modiba6.7
8Tshepang Moremi
10Relebohile Mofokeng
25Kamogelo Sebelebele
12Thapelo Maseko
17Evidence Makgopa77'for I. Rayners6.6

Match Stats

MexicoSouth Africa
61%Ball Possession39%
3Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards2
16Total Shots3
4Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal1
9Shots Inside Box1
7Shots Outside Box2
5Blocked Shots0
12Fouls11
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
520Total Passes334
467Passes Accurate272
90%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

MexicoMexico
South AfricaSouth Africa
1787Elo Rating 1616
2.03Attack 0.90
2.19Defense 2.05
73%Hit Rate 46%
12.5Shots per Game 13.1
4.0Shots on Target 3.3
1.8Corners per Game 3.3
0.7Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+172 Elo
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MexicoMexico
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
South AfricaSouth Africa
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

MexicoMexico0Wins · 0%
Draws1100%
South AfricaSouth Africa0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

World Cup11/06/2010
South AfricaMexico
11

Recent Form

MexicoMexico
9W1D0L
05/06/2026
MexicoSerbia
51
W
31/05/2026
MexicoAustralia
10
W
23/05/2026
MexicoGhana
20
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
W
03/07/2025
MexicoHonduras
10
W
29/06/2025
MexicoSaudi Arabia
20
W
23/06/2025
MexicoCosta Rica
00
D
19/06/2025
SurinameMexico
02
W
15/06/2025
MexicoDominican Republic
32
W
24/03/2025
MexicoPanama
21
W
South AfricaSouth Africa
4W4D2L
29/05/2026
South AfricaNicaragua
00
D
04/01/2026
South AfricaCameroon
12
L
29/12/2025
ZimbabweSouth Africa
23
W
26/12/2025
EgyptSouth Africa
10
L
22/12/2025
South AfricaAngola
21
W
14/10/2025
South AfricaRwanda
30
W
10/10/2025
ZimbabweSouth Africa
00
D
09/09/2025
South AfricaNigeria
11
D
05/09/2025
LesothoSouth Africa
03
W
18/08/2025
South AfricaUganda
33
D

Referee Profile

Wilton Pereira Sampaio312 matches

5.06Cards per match
4.84Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilton Pereira Sampaio5.06
Other referees5.05

5.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 255 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MexicoMexico33006:0+69WWW
2South AfricaSouth Africa31112:3-14WDL
3South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
4CzechiaCzechia30122:6-41LDL
#TeamMPGPts
1MexicoMexico36:09
2South AfricaSouth Africa32:34
3South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
4CzechiaCzechia32:61

About the Mexico vs South Africa forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Mexico and South Africa in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Mexico are 1st in the World Cup, 5 points ahead of South Africa in 2nd. League goal record so far: Mexico 6-0, South Africa 2-3. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Mexico and South Africa have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.