USA vs Paraguay Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 1
Cup
USA
4-1
Finished
HT 3-0
Paraguay
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood·Danny Makkelie, Netherlands 13/06/2026
USAUSA
4-1
Finished
ParaguayParaguay

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalSTRONGModel72%SurpriseMediumGap0.0%
USA Rest
6 days
Paraguay Rest
7 days

USA vs Paraguay: the result in context

USA beat Paraguay 4-1 in the World Cup on 13 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

USA tend to win more corners, 5.1 a game to 1.8 for Paraguay.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%2.10
X
22%3.23
2
20%3.88
Double Chance
1X
80%1.25
X2
42%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.05
No
47%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.79 + 1.23 = 3.02
Over 1.5
73%1.47
Over 2.5
48%2.48
Over 3.5
26%4.65
Under 1.5
27%2.62
Under 2.5
52%1.54
Under 3.5
74%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.9 = 9.5
Over 8.5
53%1.94
Over 9.5
47%2.46
Over 10.5
34%3.33
Under 8.5
47%1.81
Under 9.5
53%1.49
Under 10.5
66%1.28
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.1 = 3.8
Over 3.5
59%1.74
Over 4.5
35%2.48
Under 3.5
41%2.00
Under 4.5
65%1.49

Match Events

7'D. BobadillaOG
10'J. CaceresTripping
28'Goal Disallowed - offsideF. Balogun
31'F. BalogunAssist: C. Pulisic
45+5'F. BalogunAssist: M. Tillman
46'D. Bobadilla INMauricio out
46'C. Pulisic INS. Berhalter out
53'M. AlmironDiving
59'T. AdamsRoughing
62'A. Sanabria INA. Arce out
72'S. Dest INT. Weah out
72'F. Balogun INR. Pepi out
73'MauricioAssist: J. Enciso
79'D. GomezHolding
79'M. Almiron INR. Sosa out
79'J. Caceres ING. Velazquez out
80'D. Gomez INKaku out
82'M. Tillman ING. Reyna out
88'A. ArceRoughing
90+3'J. AlonsoHolding
90+8'G. ReynaAssist: A. Freeman

Lineups

USA
4-2-3-1Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Paraguay
4-4-2Coach: Gustavo Alfaro
Avg rating7.17
Avg rating6.33
Matthew Freese6.324M. Freese
Alexander Freeman7.316A. Freeman
Chris Richards6.93C. Richards
Tim ReamC7.713T. Ream
Antonee Robinson6.95A. Robinson
Tyler Adams7.04T. Adams
Malik Tillman7.517M. Tillman
Sergiño Dest6.62S. Dest
Weston McKennie7.28W. McKennie
Christian Pulišić7.510C. Pulišić
Folarin Balogun9.220F. Balogun
Orlando Gill6.212O. Gill
Juan Cáceres6.24J. Cáceres
Gustavo GómezC5.915G. Gómez
Omar Alderete5.93O. Alderete
Junior Alonso5.26J. Alonso
Diego Gómez6.58D. Gómez
Andrés Cubas6.914A. Cubas
Damián Bobadilla5.516D. Bobadilla
Miguel Almirón6.310M. Almirón
Antonio Sanabria6.59A. Sanabria
Julio Enciso7.219J. Enciso

USA Substitutes

14Sebastian Berhalter46'for C. Pulisic6.9
21Tim Weah72'for S. Dest6.3
9Ricardo Pepi72'for F. Balogun6.3
7Giovanni Reyna82'for M. Tillman90+8'7.9
1Matt Turner
25Chris Brady
6Auston Trusty
12Miles Robinson
22Mark McKenzie
23Joe Scally
18Maximilian Arfsten
15Cristian Roldán
11Brenden Aaronson
26Alex Zendejas
19Haji Wright

Paraguay Substitutes

11Mauricio46'for D. Bobadilla73'7.5
18Alex Arce62'for A. Sanabria88'6.2
2Gustavo Velázquez79'for J. Caceres6.2
7Ramón Sosa79'for M. Almiron6.7
17Alejandro Romero80'for D. Gomez6.3
22Gastón Olveira
1Roberto Fernández
5Fabián Balbuena
26Alexandro Maidana
13José Canale
20Braian Ojeda
24Gustavo Caballero
23Matías Galarza
21Gabriel Ávalos
25Isidro Pitta

Match Stats

USAParaguay
65%Ball Possession35%
3Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards5
16Total Shots9
6Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal3
13Shots Inside Box4
3Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots5
13Fouls17
2Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
598Total Passes319
509Passes Accurate232
85%Pass Accuracy73%

Team Comparison

USAUSA
ParaguayParaguay
1697Elo Rating 1599
2.01Attack 0.54
1.20Defense 1.94
54%Hit Rate 17%
11.1Shots per Game 6.7
3.5Shots on Target 1.8
5.1Corners per Game 1.8
1.6Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.02 goals
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)
ParaguayParaguay
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0.1 in second half)

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

USAUSA1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
ParaguayParaguay0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

Copa America12/06/2016
USAParaguay
10

Recent Form

USAUSA
6W0D4L
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
L
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
L
03/07/2025
USAGuatemala
21
W
30/06/2025
USACosta Rica
4232
W
23/06/2025
USAHaiti
21
W
20/06/2025
Saudi ArabiaUSA
01
W
16/06/2025
USATrinidad and Tobago
50
W
22/03/2025
CanadaUSA
21
L
21/03/2025
USAPanama
01
L
ParaguayParaguay
6W3D1L
06/06/2026
ParaguayNicaragua
40
W
10/09/2025
PeruParaguay
01
W
05/09/2025
ParaguayEcuador
00
D
11/06/2025
BrazilParaguay
10
L
06/06/2025
ParaguayUruguay
20
W
26/03/2025
ColombiaParaguay
22
D
21/03/2025
ParaguayChile
10
W
19/11/2024
BoliviaParaguay
22
D
15/11/2024
ParaguayArgentina
21
W
16/10/2024
ParaguayVenezuela
21
W

Referee Profile

Danny Makkelie206 matches

3.39Cards per match
3.23Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
22.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Danny Makkelie3.39
Other referees3.24

3.39 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.24).

Cards come from 203 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

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About the USA vs Paraguay forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

USA and Paraguay in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: USA are 1st in the World Cup, 2 points ahead of Paraguay in 3rd. League goal record so far: USA 8-4, Paraguay 2-4. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. USA and Paraguay have met only 1 time recently, with 1.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.