Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa Prediction

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg·Omar Abdulkadir Artan, Somalia 12/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
8.2 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.73
SignalGOODModel55%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Paris Saint Germain Rest
4 days
Aston Villa Rest
5 days

Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa: the result in context

Paris Saint Germain beat Aston Villa 2-1 in the UEFA Super Cup on 12 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.73
X
20%3.90
2
16%4.60
Double Chance
1X
84%1.19
X2
36%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%1.75
No
52%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.88 + 0.8 = 3.68
Over 1.5
92%1.25
Over 2.5
78%1.80
Over 3.5
69%3.00
Under 1.5
8%3.85
Under 2.5
22%2.02
Under 3.5
31%1.38
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

20'K. KvaratskheliaAssist: D. Doue
45'B. MadjoAssist: J. McGinn
46'M. Akliouche INO. Dembele out
51'P. TorresRoughing
61'D. DoueAssist: O. Dembele
64'Joao GomesTripping
72'B. Madjo INT. Abraham out
72'B. Kamara INL. Bogarde out
72'J. McGinnUnsportsmanlike conduct
73'J. McGinn INAlysson out
75'J. Neves INF. Ruiz out
75'N. Mendes INL. Hernandez out
79'P. Torres INT. Mings out
79'Joao Gomes INR. Barkley out
87'D. Doue INS. Mayulu out
88'K. Kvaratskhelia INL. Beraldo out

Lineups

Paris Saint Germain
Coach: Enrique Luis
Aston Villa
Coach: Unai Emery

Paris Saint Germain Starting XI

39Matvey Safonov7.0
2Achraf Hakimi7.0
5MarquinhosC7.0
51Willian Pacho7.2
25Nuno Mendes75'replaced by L. Hernandez7.7
33Warren Zaïre-Emery6.9
17Vitinha7.5
87João Neves75'replaced by F. Ruiz7.0
14Désiré Doué61'87'replaced by S. Mayulu8.2
11Maghnes Akliouche46'replaced by O. Dembele6.3
7Khvicha Kvaratskhelia20'88'replaced by L. Beraldo8.2
Avg rating7.07

Aston Villa Starting XI

40Marco Bizot6.7
2Matty Cash6.7
3Victor Lindelöf6.5
14Pau Torres51'79'replaced by T. Mings7.0
22Ian Maatsen6.9
8Boubacar Kamara72'replaced by L. Bogarde6.5
35João Gomes64'79'replaced by R. Barkley6.2
7John McGinnC72'73'replaced by Alysson7.2
10Emiliano Buendía6.5
53George Hemmings6.3
39Brian Madjo45'72'replaced by T. Abraham6.7
Avg rating6.66

Paris Saint Germain Substitutes

10Ousmane Dembélé46'for M. Akliouche6.9
21Lucas Hernández75'for N. Mendes6.6
8Fabián Ruiz75'for J. Neves6.3
24Senny Mayulu87'for D. Doue6.7
4Lucas Beraldo88'for K. Kvaratskhelia6.6
30Lucas Chevalier
6Ilya Zabarnyi
12Lucas Digne
27Dro Fernández
49Ibrahim Mbaye
29Bradley Barcola
47Quentin Ndjantou

Aston Villa Substitutes

26Lamare Bogarde72'for B. Kamara6.9
18Tammy Abraham72'for B. Madjo6.7
47Alysson73'for J. McGinn6.2
5Tyrone Mings79'for P. Torres6.7
6Ross Barkley79'for Joao Gomes6.9
42James Wright
60Owen Asemota
32Kosta Nedeljković
48Modou Kéba Cissé
45Triston Rowe
49Bradley Burrowes
74Luka Lynch

Match Stats

Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
61%Ball Possession39%
0Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal8
7Shots Inside Box14
5Shots Outside Box1
1Blocked Shots3
11Fouls13
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves4
588Total Passes369
525Passes Accurate289
89%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
Aston VillaAston Villa
2046Elo Rating 1950
3.32Attack 2.70
1.54Defense 2.22
100%Hit Rate 86%
21.0Shots per Game 16.0
10.1Shots on Target 6.2
4.0Corners per Game 5.7
0.3Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.67 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.3 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Aston VillaAston Villa
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
Aston VillaAston Villa1Wins · 50%
4.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

UEFA Champions League15/04/2025
Aston VillaParis Saint Germain
32
UEFA Champions League09/04/2025
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
31

Recent Form

Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5W3D2L
08/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainManchester United
11
D
05/08/2026
MallorcaParis Saint Germain
30
L
30/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainArsenal
4131
W
17/05/2026
Paris FCParis Saint Germain
21
L
13/05/2026
LensParis Saint Germain
02
W
10/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
10
W
06/05/2026
Bayern MünchenParis Saint Germain
11
D
02/05/2026
Paris Saint GermainLorient
22
D
28/04/2026
Paris Saint GermainBayern München
54
W
25/04/2026
AngersParis Saint Germain
03
W
Aston VillaAston Villa
6W1D3L
07/08/2026
Bayern MünchenAston Villa
21
L
04/08/2026
BG Pathum UnitedAston Villa
13
W
28/07/2026
Aston VillaReal Sociedad
24
L
25/07/2026
FC PortoAston Villa
21
L
21/07/2026
WalsallAston Villa
05
W
24/05/2026
Manchester CityAston Villa
12
W
20/05/2026
SC FreiburgAston Villa
03
W
15/05/2026
Aston VillaLiverpool
42
W
10/05/2026
BurnleyAston Villa
22
D
07/05/2026
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
40
W

Referee Profile

Omar Abdulkadir Artan35 matches

3.73Cards per match
3.64Yellow cards per match
0.09Red cards per match
26.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Omar Abdulkadir Artan3.76
Other referees3.76

3.76 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.76).

Cards come from 22 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

About the Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa forecast

As a knockout tie in the UEFA Super Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Super Cup

More UEFA Super Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Super Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.2 out of 10 by our context model. Paris Saint Germain have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Aston Villa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Paris Saint Germain and Aston Villa have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.5 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.