Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 8
Progreso
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Racing Montevideo
Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo·Javier Feres, Uruguay 26/09/2026
ProgresoProgreso
2-1
Finished
Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.21
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-15.2%
Progreso Rest
6 days
Racing Montevideo Rest
5 days

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo: result, form and history

Progreso beat Racing Montevideo 2-1 in the Primera División on 26 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and both sides scored in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
28%3.80
X
28%3.14
2
44%1.93
Double Chance
1X
56%1.74
X2
72%1.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.97
No
51%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.42 = 2.64
Over 1.5
69%1.40
Over 2.5
45%2.25
Over 3.5
24%4.33
Under 1.5
31%2.75
Under 2.5
55%1.59
Under 3.5
76%1.18
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

19'M. Juambeltz
46'S. Da Silva INF. Suarez out
46'F. Gonzalez INJ. Bosca out
50'E. Da Silva
63'G. Trasante INM. Copelotti out
63'A. Ocampo INF. De Leon out
67'I. Manzur
73'A. Cougo
74'F. Garcia INE. Alvarez out
74'I. Manzur
74'I. Manzur
75'Brazionis INM. Ferreira out
75'A. Vazquez INR. Gadea out
78'A. Cougo INH. Carroso out
78'R. Cristobal INN. Acosta out
81'E. Da Silva INN. Sosa out
83'Agustin De la Cuesta
90'E. Alvarez
90+3'N. Lopez

Lineups

Progreso
4-2-3-1Coach: Tabare Silva
Racing Montevideo
4-4-2Coach: Cristian Chambian
Renzo Bacchia1R. Bacchia
Federico García3F. García
Mauro Martín15M. Martín
Marco Saravia6M. Saravia
Ayrton Cougo40A. Cougo
Ramiro Cristobal25R. Cristobal
Agustin Pinheiro5A. Pinheiro
Gianfranco Trasante16G. Trasante
Nahuel López10N. López
Agustín Ocampo7A. Ocampo
Maximiliano Juambeltz8M. Juambeltz
Federico Varese12F. Varese
Facundo González29F. González
Ramiro Brazionis3R. Brazionis
Felipe Alvarez13F. Alvarez
Guillermo Cotugno4G. Cotugno
Álex Vázquez39Á. Vázquez
Agustin De La Cuesta34A. De La Cuesta
Esteban Da Silva10E. Da Silva
Yury Oyarzo37Y. Oyarzo
Sebastián da Silva9S. da Silva
Ivan Manzur81I. Manzur

Progreso Substitutes

17Facundo de León63'for A. Ocampo
23Matteo Copelotti63'for G. Trasante
12Lautaro Fernández
24Emiliano Álvarez74'for F. Garcia90'
13Hernan Carroso78'for A. Cougo
27Gastón Silva
4Lorenzo Couture
30Agustín Codagnone
11Nahuel Acosta78'for R. Cristobal
9Jonathan Dos Santos

Racing Montevideo Substitutes

5Juan Bosca Fraquelli46'for F. Gonzalez
11Franco Suárez46'for S. Da Silva
1Facundo Machado
27Matias Unyicio
20Elias Bentancor
17Martín Ferreira75'for Brazionis
8Lucca Loprete
22Thiago Fernandez
30Rodrigo Gadea75'for A. Vazquez
23Nicolás Sosa81'for E. Da Silva

Team Comparison

ProgresoProgreso
Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo
1468Elo Rating 1538
1.77Attack 1.64
1.88Defense 1.35
58%Hit Rate 23%
8.7Shots per Game 9.6
4.4Shots on Target 3.8
3.3Corners per Game 5.2
2.3Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend57% in H2H
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ProgresoProgreso
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

ProgresoProgreso2Wins · 29%
Draws114%
Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo4Wins · 57%
3.3Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura26/03/2026
Racing MontevideoProgreso
11
Primera División - Apertura22/06/2025
Racing MontevideoProgreso
30
Primera División - Apertura30/03/2025
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
01
Primera División - Apertura07/07/2024
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
32
Primera División - Apertura10/03/2024
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
43
Segunda División14/08/2022
Racing MontevideoProgreso
21
Segunda División22/05/2022
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
02

Recent Form

ProgresoProgreso
3W0D7L
19/09/2026
Boston RiverProgreso
12
W
16/09/2026
ProgresoClub Nacional
01
L
13/09/2026
ProgresoCerro
13
L
07/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
01
W
03/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
21
L
29/08/2026
ProgresoDanubio
10
W
26/08/2026
ProgresoCA River Plate
02
L
23/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
10
L
16/08/2026
ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado
02
L08/08/2026
Central EspanolProgreso
10
L
Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo
4W3D3L
21/09/2026
Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo
00
D
17/09/2026
JuventudRacing Montevideo
30
L
12/09/2026
Racing MontevideoBoston River
32
W
09/09/2026
Racing MontevideoCentral Espanol
24
L
06/09/2026
CerroRacing Montevideo
10
L
04/09/2026
OrientalRacing Montevideo
12
W
31/08/2026
Racing MontevideoAlbion FC
10
W
23/08/2026
DanubioRacing Montevideo
00
D
15/08/2026
Racing MontevideoClub Nacional
20
W
11/08/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoRacing Montevideo
22
D

Referee Profile

Javier Feres106 matches

6.21Cards per match
6.05Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
25.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Javier Feres6.21
Other referees6.00

6.21 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (6.00).

Cards come from 19 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol34198751:27+2464DLWLW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional341841251:41+1058WLLWW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo341512742:30+1257DWWWD
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo341511845:31+1456LWLDD
7WanderersWanderers341481241:43-250LLLWL
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo349101532:38-637LDDWL
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro341071728:51-2337DDWLW
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3451:2764
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3451:4158
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3442:3057
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3445:3156
7WanderersWanderers3441:4350
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3432:3837
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3428:5137
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol71431414117:61+56143DLWLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71421415127:74+53137WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7133221696:68+28121LWLDD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7129231981:68+13110DWWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7121232773:79-686LDDWL
12CerroCerro7122183161:93-3283DDWLW
13WanderersWanderers7120213066:90-2481LLLWL
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol341081633:47-1438LDWWD
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol71117:61143
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71127:74137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7196:68121
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7181:68110
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7173:7986
12CerroCerro7161:9383
13WanderersWanderers7166:9081
14Central EspanolCentral Espanol3433:4738
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916DLWLW
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LDDWL
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110DWWWD
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509LWLDD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409LDWWD
6CerroCerro73046:10-49DDWLW
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36DWLDD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55WLWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1WanderersWanderers743012:4+815LLLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional74128:8013WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado733112:6+612DWWLW
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque740311:11012DLDLL
5JuventudJuventud72238:11-38DWLLL
6Albion FCAlbion FC71336:8-26WWDDW
7ProgresoProgreso72056:11-56WLLDD
8DanubioDanubio70435:9-44DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1WanderersWanderers712:415
2Club NacionalClub Nacional78:813
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado712:612
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque711:1112
5JuventudJuventud78:118
6Albion FCAlbion FC76:86
7ProgresoProgreso76:116
8DanubioDanubio75:94

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931DWWWD
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727DLWLW
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124LDWWD
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522WLLWW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220LWLDD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520LLLWL
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LDDWL
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610DDWLW
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1283120:8+1227LWLDD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1272317:12+523WLLWW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
5PenarolPenarol1264216:8+821DLWLW
6ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
7JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
8CerroCerro1253414:17-318DDWLW
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1244415:13+216DWWWD
10Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
11WanderersWanderers1243513:18-515LLLWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo121659:14-59LDDWL
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol121296:21-155LDWWD
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1220:827
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1217:1223
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
5PenarolPenarol1216:821
6ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
7JuventudJuventud1212:818
8CerroCerro1214:1718
9Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1215:1316
10Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
11WanderersWanderers1213:1815
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo129:149
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol126:215
PromotionRelegation

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About the Progreso vs Racing Montevideo forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Progreso and Racing Montevideo in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, Racing Montevideo are 5th and Progreso 15th, 22 points apart. League goal record so far: Progreso 31-47, Racing Montevideo 42-30. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Progreso have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.