Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi Prediction

Shinnik Yaroslavl
2-2
Finished
HT 1-0
FC Sochi
Stadion Shinnik, Yaroslavl·R. Ziyakov 12/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.69
SignalSOLIDModel32%SurpriseHighGap+5.7%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Rest
12 days
FC Sochi Rest
9 days

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi: the result in context

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi drew 2-2 in the First League on 12 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee R. Ziyakov averages 5.50 cards a game, 0.91 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%3.38
X
27%3.38
2
31%2.08
Double Chance
1X
69%1.74
X2
58%1.24
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.89
No
56%1.81
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
64%1.33
Over 2.5
38%2.18
Over 3.5
18%3.86
Under 1.5
36%2.92
Under 2.5
62%1.69
Under 3.5
82%1.21
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

14'I. Porokhov
47'V. Karpov
56'A. Osipov
60'R. Ezhov
61'D. Samoylov IND. Martovoy out
61'A. Gongapshev INA. Antonov out
69'I. Porokhov IND. Pushkarev out
69'D. Mironov INI. Azyavin out
73'R. Magal INI. Kalinin out
73'R. Ezhov INR. Pasevich out
73'Z. Fedorov INP. Meleshin out
77'O. Lanin INN. Kotin out
79'Aleksandr Soldatenkov
80'Ilya Azyavin
81'M. Ignatov INR. Bart out
88'Denis Mironov
90+3'M. Kuzmin INM. Kaynov out

Lineups

Shinnik Yaroslavl
3-5-2Coach: Artem Buloychik
FC Sochi
3-4-3Coach: Igor Osinkin
T. Mitrov51T. Mitrov
A. Kosogorov2A. Kosogorov
V. Karpov62V. Karpov
N. Chistyakov23N. Chistyakov
A. Gongapshev10A. Gongapshev
A. Chernyi27A. Chernyi
A. Golubev50A. Golubev
O. Lanin64O. Lanin
D. Samoylov15D. Samoylov
I. Porokhov11I. Porokhov
D. Mironov88D. Mironov
A. Degtev35A. Degtev
A. Soldatenkov3A. Soldatenkov
V. Litvinov4V. Litvinov
K. Zaika27K. Zaika
R. Magal28R. Magal
A. Osipov5A. Osipov
M. Kuzmin6M. Kuzmin
A. Makarchuk17A. Makarchuk
R. Ezhov29R. Ezhov
Z. Fedorov9Z. Fedorov
M. Ignatov8M. Ignatov

Shinnik Yaroslavl Substitutes

95D. Vambolt
53N. Kotin77'for O. Lanin
49M. Karaev
33A. Lavrenkov
17E. Valiakhmetov
7D. Martovoy61'for D. Samoylov
21D. Pushkarev69'for I. Porokhov
54I. Shmakov
77A. Antonov61'for A. Gongapshev
24I. Azyavin69'for D. Mironov80'

FC Sochi Substitutes

85D. Silev
37M. Chirkov
13I. Kalinin73'for R. Magal
97R. Pasevich73'for R. Ezhov
18M. Kaynov90+3'for M. Kuzmin
66A. Metsiev
11P. Meleshin73'for Z. Fedorov
59R. Bart81'for M. Ignatov

Team Comparison

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
FC SochiFC Sochi
1510Elo Rating 1522
1.10Attack 1.68
1.72Defense 2.42
44%Hit Rate 83%
5.5Shots per Game 7.3
3.0Shots on Target 2.7
5.8Corners per Game 5.1
2.0Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0 in second half)
FC SochiFC Sochi
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
FC SochiFC Sochi1Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

First League23/03/2025
FC SochiShinnik Yaroslavl
12
First League04/08/2024
Shinnik YaroslavlFC Sochi
02

Recent Form

Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
4W6D0L
30/06/2026
CSKA MoscowShinnik Yaroslavl
11
D
16/05/2026
ChelyabinskShinnik Yaroslavl
22
D
11/05/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlTorpedo Moskva
11
D
04/05/2026
UralShinnik Yaroslavl
01
W
26/04/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlSka-khabarovsk
30
W
22/04/2026
FakelShinnik Yaroslavl
22
D
18/04/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlArsenal Tula
20
W
12/04/2026
Volga UlyanovskShinnik Yaroslavl
01
W
04/04/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlKAMAZ
00
D
28/03/2026
FK NeftekhimikShinnik Yaroslavl
00
D
FC SochiFC Sochi
5W2D3L
03/07/2026
FC SochiTorpedo Moskva
03
L
30/06/2026
FC SochiSka-khabarovsk
42
W
26/06/2026
FC SochiArsenal Tula
33
D
17/05/2026
FC SochiAkhmat
11
D
10/05/2026
ZenitFC Sochi
21
L
03/05/2026
FC SochiFC Orenburg
31
W
26/04/2026
DynamoFC Sochi
20
L
21/04/2026
FC SochiKrylia Sovetov
21
W
17/04/2026
FC RostovFC Sochi
01
W
12/04/2026
CSKA MoscowFC Sochi
01
W

Referee Profile

R. Ziyakov54 matches

5.50Cards per match
5.20Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

R. Ziyakov5.50
Other referees4.59

5.50 cards a match, 0.91 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.59).

Cards come from 10 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod16141148:15+3343WWWWW
2FC SochiFC Sochi16102426:17+932LWWWD
3UralUral1694327:11+1631WWLLW
4Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1685328:13+1529DDWWD
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1684422:16+628DLWLL
6VelesVeles1784521:20+128DLDWL
7Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1658320:17+323LWDWD
8FC UFAFC UFA1657418:15+322DLWLD
9Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1764722:23-122DWWDW
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1655623:18+520DDLDW
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1654719:33-1419LWLWL
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1653821:26-518WLLWD
13LeningradetsLeningradets1645715:26-1117WDLLW
14KAMAZKAMAZ1635820:28-814DLWDW
15EniseyEnisey1635816:33-1714LLLLD
16Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1634920:28-813WWLDD
17FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik16411111:24-1313LDLLL
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1625912:26-1411DLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod1648:1543
2FC SochiFC Sochi1626:1732
3UralUral1627:1131
4Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1628:1329
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1622:1628
6VelesVeles1721:2028
7Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1620:1723
8FC UFAFC UFA1618:1522
9Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1722:2322
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1623:1820
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1619:3319
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1621:2618
13LeningradetsLeningradets1615:2617
14KAMAZKAMAZ1620:2814
15EniseyEnisey1616:3314
16Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1620:2813
17FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik1611:2413
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1612:2611

About the Shinnik Yaroslavl vs FC Sochi forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi in the First League table

In the First League table, FC Sochi are 2nd and Shinnik Yaroslavl 7th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Shinnik Yaroslavl 20-17, FC Sochi 26-17. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Shinnik Yaroslavl have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Shinnik Yaroslavl and FC Sochi have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.