Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction

Vitoria
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Vasco DA Gama
Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador·Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil 17/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.37
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+5.3%
Value Analysis
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.37
SignalSTRONGModel50%SurpriseMediumGap+12.6%
Vitoria Rest
40 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
46 days

Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama: result, form and history

Vitoria beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 in the Serie A on 16 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Vitoria had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Vasco DA Gama.

Vasco DA Gama have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Referee Matheus Delgado Candançan averages 4.59 cards a game, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%2.39
X
24%3.30
2
22%2.96
Double Chance
1X
78%1.37
X2
46%1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.75
No
40%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.77 + 0.98 = 2.75
Over 1.5
78%1.31
Over 2.5
60%2.00
Over 3.5
34%3.52
Under 1.5
22%3.25
Under 2.5
40%1.80
Under 3.5
66%1.28
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 4 = 10.4
Over 8.5
61%1.41
Over 9.5
50%1.72
Over 10.5
36%2.16
Under 8.5
39%2.60
Under 9.5
50%1.99
Under 10.5
64%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.9
Over 3.5
72%1.47
Over 4.5
55%1.95
Under 3.5
28%2.38
Under 4.5
45%1.77

Match Events

39'Zé Vitor INTomás Pochettino out
59'Johan Rojas INAndrés Gómez out
59'Claudio Spinelli INBrenner out
63'Renê Sousa INRenato Kayzer out
69'Renato KayzerAssist: Diego Tarzia
73'Adson INMarino Hinestroza out
77'Erick INMarinho out
78'Jamerson INEmanuel Brítez out
78'Diego Tarzia INFabrício Santos out
78'Nuno Moreira INDavid out
78'Thiago Mendes INTchê Tchê out

Lineups

Vitoria
4-1-4-1Coach: Ventura Jair
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Coach: Gaucho Renato
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.63
Lucas Arcanjo7.01L. Arcanjo
Jamerson7.583Jamerson
Cacá7.325Cacá
Luan Cândido7.236L. Cândido
Ramon7.213Ramon
Gabriel BaralhasC6.944G. Baralhas
Erick6.933Erick
Zé Vitor6.388Z. Vitor
Emmanuel Martínez7.26E. Martínez
Diego Tarzia6.712D. Tarzia
Renê Sousa6.291R. Sousa
Léo Jardim7.51L. Jardim
Puma Rodríguez7.32P. Rodríguez
Carlos Cuesta6.946C. Cuesta
Robert Renan6.930R. Renan
Cuiabano6.566Cuiabano
Cauan Barros6.988C. Barros
Thiago MendesC6.623T. Mendes
Adson6.228Adson
Johan Rojas6.310J. Rojas
Nuno Moreira6.217N. Moreira
Claudio Spinelli6.077C. Spinelli

Vitoria Substitutes

8Tomás Pochettino39'for Zé Vitor6.6
79Renato Kayzer63'for Renê Sousa69'7.3
7Marinho77'for Erick6.3
2Emanuel Brítez78'for Jamerson6.9
23Fabrício Santos78'for Diego Tarzia6.7
71Yuri Sena
98Mateusinho
26Edenilson
15Walace
11Osvaldo
10Matheuzinho
41Wendell dos Santos Sacramento

Vasco DA Gama Substitutes

11Andrés Gómez59'for Johan Rojas6.9
20Brenner59'for Claudio Spinelli6.7
18Marino Hinestroza73'for Adson6.3
3Tchê Tchê78'for Thiago Mendes6.6
7David78'for Nuno Moreira6.3
13Daniel Fuzato
96Paulo Henrique
6Lucas Piton
43Lucas Freitas
8Jair
98JP
83Ramon Rique

Match Stats

VitoriaVasco DA Gama
50%Ball Possession50%
3Corner Kicks2
14Total Shots13
6Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots4
12Fouls15
1Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
385Total Passes394
298Passes Accurate326
77%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

VitoriaVitoria
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
1627Elo Rating 1731
1.50Attack 0.75
1.69Defense 1.82
17%Hit Rate 34%
12.7Shots per Game 13.2
5.1Shots on Target 3.3
3.1Corners per Game 5.4
2.0Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

VitoriaVitoria
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

VitoriaVitoria2Wins · 33%
Draws00%
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama4Wins · 67%
3.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
67%3+ goals4 of 6

Previous meetings

Serie A05/10/2025
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
43
Serie A10/05/2025
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
21
Serie A01/09/2024
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
01
Serie A12/05/2024
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
21
Serie B11/11/2021
Vasco DA GamaVitoria
03
Serie B08/08/2021
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
01

Recent Form

VitoriaVitoria
7W1D2L
06/06/2026
VitoriaFortaleza EC
21
W
03/06/2026
Fortaleza ECVitoria
12
W
31/05/2026
SantosVitoria
31
L
28/05/2026
ABCVitoria
34
W
23/05/2026
VitoriaInternacional
20
W
21/05/2026
VitoriaABC
62
W
17/05/2026
RB BragantinoVitoria
20
L
15/05/2026
VitoriaFlamengo
20
W
09/05/2026
FluminenseVitoria
22
D
02/05/2026
VitoriaCoritiba
41
W
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
4W2D4L
31/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico-MG
01
L
28/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaBarracas Central
30
W
25/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaRB Bragantino
03
L
21/05/2026
OlimpiaVasco DA Gama
31
L
16/05/2026
InternacionalVasco DA Gama
41
L
14/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaPaysandu
22
D
11/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense
10
W
07/05/2026
A. ItalianoVasco DA Gama
12
W
03/05/2026
FlamengoVasco DA Gama
22
D
01/05/2026
Vasco DA GamaOlimpia
30
W

Referee Profile

Matheus Delgado Candançan152 matches

4.59Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.29Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Matheus Delgado Candançan4.59
Other referees5.09

4.59 cards a match, 0.50 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.09).

Cards come from 139 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras32209356:22+3469WWWWD
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWLWW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense32149950:41+951LLLWW
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
7BahiaBahia321311845:40+550DLWLL
8SantosSantos3212101049:47+246DWLDW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo321271337:36+143DWWLL
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino321181339:38+141LDWDL
11BotafogoBotafogo321091344:51-739LWDLL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional328111336:40-435WLDWL
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo325111634:50-1626LDDDL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc31491832:63-3121LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3256:2269
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3250:4151
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
7BahiaBahia3245:4050
8SantosSantos3249:4746
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3237:3643
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3239:3841
11BotafogoBotafogo3244:5139
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3236:4035
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3234:5026
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3132:6321
PromotionRelegation

About the Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Vitoria (14th) and Vasco DA Gama (13th) are level on 38 points. League goal record so far: Vitoria 35-46, Vasco DA Gama 39-45. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Vitoria have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.