Aarhus vs Lech Poznan Prediction

Aarhus
1-4
Finished
HT 0-2
Lech Poznan
Cepheus Park Randers, Randers·Oliver Reitala, Finland 21/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.36
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+5.0%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.36
SignalSTRONGModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+11.9%
Aarhus Rest
6 days
Lech Poznan Rest
5 days

Aarhus vs Lech Poznan: result, form and history

Lech Poznan beat Aarhus 4-1 in the UEFA Champions League on 21 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Lech Poznan tend to win more corners, 4.8 a game to 2.7 for Aarhus.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
40%2.15
X
22%3.15
2
38%3.42
Double Chance
1X
62%1.29
X2
59%1.66
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.82
No
45%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.37 = 2.96
Over 1.5
78%1.36
Over 2.5
58%2.10
Over 3.5
40%3.67
Under 1.5
22%2.95
Under 2.5
42%1.70
Under 3.5
60%1.24
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4 = 8.8
Over 8.5
52%1.53
Over 9.5
41%1.87
Over 10.5
30%2.35
Under 8.5
48%2.28
Under 9.5
59%1.80
Under 10.5
70%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
57%1.56
Over 4.5
36%2.11
Under 3.5
43%2.22
Under 4.5
64%1.65

Match Events

29'M. IshakAssist: J. Pereira
37'J. HansenHandling
40'S. Jorgensen INM. Hedenstad out
42'P. WalemarkAssist: A. Kozubal
45+6'G. LinksDiving
50'R. MurawskiUnsportsmanlike conduct
54'R. Murawski INF. Jagiello out
55'K. ArnstadAssist: F. Emmery
61'T. YegbeAssist: W. Monka
65'P. WalemarkAssist: L. Palma
66'M. Ishak INY. Agnero out
66'L. Palma IND. Hakans out
66'P. Walemark INL. Bengtsson out
73'M. Anderson INK. Yakob out
73'T. Bech INJ. Bogere out
74'J. Jensen-Abbew INJ. Andersen out
79'J. Pereira INR. Gumny out
83'G. Links INT. Kristjansson out

Lineups

Aarhus
3-4-3Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Lech Poznan
4-2-3-1Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Avg rating6.50
Avg rating6.96
Jesper Hansen4.61J. Hansen
Jonas Jensen-Abbew5.940J. Jensen-Abbew
Frederik Tingager6.35F. Tingager
Eric Kahl5.919E. Kahl
Gift Links6.511G. Links
Magnus Knudsen6.74M. Knudsen
Kristian ArnstadC7.210K. Arnstad
Frederik Emmery8.539F. Emmery
Sebastian Jørgensen6.98S. Jørgensen
Tobias Bech6.231T. Bech
Mikael Anderson6.723M. Anderson
Mateusz Lis6.61M. Lis
Joel Pereira7.22J. Pereira
Wojciech Mońka7.327W. Mońka
Terry Yegbe8.259T. Yegbe
Michal Gurgul7.015M. Gurgul
Antoni Kozubal7.343A. Kozubal
Radosław Murawski6.322R. Murawski
Patrik Wålemark8.910P. Wålemark
Pablo Rodríguez6.621P. Rodríguez
Luis Palma6.977L. Palma
Mikael IshakC7.59M. Ishak

Aarhus Substitutes

21Mads Hedenstad40'for S. Jorgensen6.3
42Marius van der Raad
43Zander Grantzau
44Mouhammade Camara
16Jens Jønsson
22Oskar Haugstrup
26Jacob Andersen74'for J. Jensen-Abbew6.7
17Kevin Yakob73'for M. Anderson6.6
13Janni Serra
20Tómas Óli Kristjánsson83'for G. Links6.7
28James Bogere73'for T. Bech6.3
27Stefen Tchamche

Lech Poznan Substitutes

24Filip Jagiełło54'for R. Murawski6.3
11Daniel Håkans66'for L. Palma6.3
14Leo Bengtsson66'for P. Walemark6.7
7Yannick Agnero66'for M. Ishak6.0
41Bartosz Mrozek
35Mateusz Pruchniewski
4João Moutinho
20Robert Gumny79'for J. Pereira6.3
90Hubert Janyszka
72Mateusz Skrzypczak
17Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
23Gisli Thordarson

Match Stats

AarhusLech Poznan
43%Ball Possession57%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
11Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box9
4Shots Outside Box8
3Blocked Shots7
11Fouls12
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
357Total Passes473
275Passes Accurate391
77%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

AarhusAarhus
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
1624Elo Rating 1747
1.28Attack 3.01
2.02Defense 1.42
17%Hit Rate 54%
8.3Shots per Game 15.8
2.5Shots on Target 5.7
2.7Corners per Game 4.8
1.4Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AarhusAarhus
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

AarhusAarhus
5W3D2L
15/07/2026
AarhusAC Horsens
20
W
11/07/2026
Union St. GilloiseAarhus
21
L
05/07/2026
AarhusMotherwell
40
W
27/06/2026
AarhusViborg
11
D
17/05/2026
AarhusViborg
62
W
10/05/2026
BrondbyAarhus
02
W
03/05/2026
AarhusSonderjyske
21
W
26/04/2026
AarhusFC Midtjylland
00
D
23/04/2026
FC NordsjaellandAarhus
11
D
20/04/2026
FC MidtjyllandAarhus
21
L
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
7W3D0L
16/07/2026
Lech PoznanGornik Zabrze
31
W
11/07/2026
Lech PoznanBohemians 1905
40
W
04/07/2026
Lech PoznanPodbrezová
31
W
23/05/2026
Lech PoznanWisla Plock
22
D
16/05/2026
Radomiak RadomLech Poznan
13
W
08/05/2026
Lech PoznanArka Gdynia
11
D
02/05/2026
Motor LublinLech Poznan
01
W
26/04/2026
Lech PoznanLegia Warszawa
40
W
18/04/2026
Pogon SzczecinLech Poznan
12
W
12/04/2026
Lech PoznanGKS Katowice
33
D

Referee Profile

Oliver Reitala162 matches

4.06Cards per match
3.86Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
22.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Oliver Reitala4.06
Other referees4.02

4.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.02).

Cards come from 49 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded

About the Aarhus vs Lech Poznan forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Lech Poznan have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Aarhus and Lech Poznan have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.