FC Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction

FC Thun
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Dinamo Zagreb
Stockhorn Arena, Thun·Bulat Sariyev, Kazakhstan 21/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.62
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+8.9%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.62
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+14.7%
FC Thun Rest
10 days
Dinamo Zagreb Rest
7 days

FC Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb: the result in context

FC Thun and Dinamo Zagreb drew 1-1 in the UEFA Champions League on 21 Jul 2026. Dinamo Zagreb had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against none for FC Thun.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
30%3.62
X
20%3.60
2
50%1.91
Double Chance
1X
50%1.82
X2
70%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.56
No
45%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.32 + 1.97 = 3.29
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
71%1.62
Over 3.5
41%2.50
Under 1.5
18%4.29
Under 2.5
29%2.22
Under 3.5
59%1.49
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.1 = 8.8
Over 8.5
52%1.56
Over 9.5
41%1.90
Over 10.5
30%2.40
Under 8.5
48%2.23
Under 9.5
59%1.77
Under 10.5
70%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 1.8 = 4.1
Over 3.5
57%1.57
Over 4.5
35%2.15
Under 3.5
43%2.22
Under 4.5
65%1.60

Match Events

2'M. ZajcHolding
20'B. LabeauAssist: F. Fehr
56'N. Maier INN. Zoukit out
56'F. Dursun INM. Gutbub out
63'M. LisicaUnsportsmanlike conduct
66'M. Lisica INA. Hoxha out
67'M. BurkiHolding
70'J. RothHolding
79'N. Reichmuth INN. Burgy out
79'B. Labeau INC. Ibayi out
80'G. Vidovic INL. Kacavenda out
80'M. Orsic INF. Topic out
86'M. ZajcAssist: F. Topic
90'M. Heule INL. Dahler out
90+1'F. FehrRoughing

Lineups

FC Thun
4-4-2Coach: Luca Privitelli Gian
Dinamo Zagreb
4-2-3-1Coach: Mario Kovacevic
Avg rating6.89
Avg rating6.89
Niklas Steffen6.61N. Steffen
Fabio Fehr9.347F. Fehr
Jan Bamert6.319J. Bamert
Marco BürkiC6.223M. Bürki
Michael Heule7.927M. Heule
Nils Reichmuth6.270N. Reichmuth
Justin Roth7.016J. Roth
Valmir Matoshi6.978V. Matoshi
Nico Maier7.230N. Maier
Furkan Dursun5.99F. Dursun
Brighton Labeau7.796B. Labeau
Ivan Filipović7.244I. Filipović
Moris Valinčić6.725M. Valinčić
Sergi Domínguez8.036S. Domínguez
Scott McKenna7.526S. McKenna
Bruno Goda7.33B. Goda
Josip MišićC7.627J. Mišić
Miha Zajc7.38M. Zajc
Mateo Lisica6.021M. Lisica
Gabriel Vidović6.610G. Vidović
Mislav Oršić6.699M. Oršić
Dion Drena Beljo6.59D. Drena Beljo

FC Thun Substitutes

13Nassim Zoukit56'for N. Maier7.0
33Marc Gutbub56'for F. Dursun6.3
25Tim Spycher
5Nicolas Bürgy79'for N. Reichmuth6.2
37Lucien Dähler90'for M. Heule
54Louis Passavant
17Ashvin Balaruban
21Dorian Derbaci
52Adam Ilic
11Layton Stewart
18Christopher Ibayi79'for B. Labeau6.6
80Simon Lengen

Dinamo Zagreb Substitutes

11Arber Hoxha66'for M. Lisica6.2
1Danijel Zagorac
33Ivan Nevistić
6Stjepan Radeljić
13Paul Bismarck Tabinas
15Niko Galešić
22Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
80Lukas Kačavenda80'for G. Vidovic6.3
41Sven Šunta
30Fran Topić80'for M. Orsic6.6
71Monsef Bakrar

Match Stats

FC ThunDinamo Zagreb
43%Ball Possession57%
9Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots20
3Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal9
11Shots Inside Box12
5Shots Outside Box8
7Blocked Shots5
19Fouls13
3Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
305Total Passes411
222Passes Accurate331
73%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

FC ThunFC Thun
Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
1541Elo Rating 1756
0.84Attack 2.61
1.50Defense 1.36
14%Hit Rate 56%
11.2Shots per Game 16.0
3.6Shots on Target 6.7
3.5Corners per Game 4.2
2.6Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.28 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FC ThunFC Thun
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.9 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

FC ThunFC Thun
1W2D7L
11/07/2026
FC ThunWaldhof Mannheim
12
L
11/07/2026
FC ThunSV Elversberg
11
D
17/05/2026
FC ST. GallenFC Thun
11
D
14/05/2026
FC ThunBSC Young Boys
38
L
10/05/2026
FC SionFC Thun
20
L
02/05/2026
FC Basel 1893FC Thun
31
L
25/04/2026
FC ThunFC Lugano
01
L
18/04/2026
FC ThunFC Basel 1893
31
W
04/04/2026
FC LuganoFC Thun
10
L
21/03/2026
FC ZurichFC Thun
21
L
Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
7W3D0L
14/07/2026
Dinamo ZagrebLNZ Cherkasy
00
D
02/07/2026
Brinje-GrosupljeDinamo Zagreb
09
W
23/05/2026
Dinamo ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
00
D
17/05/2026
NK Slaven BelupoDinamo Zagreb
14
W
13/05/2026
Dinamo ZagrebHNK Rijeka
20
W
09/05/2026
Dinamo ZagrebHNK Hajduk Split
20
W
02/05/2026
HNK GoricaDinamo Zagreb
12
W
26/04/2026
Dinamo ZagrebNK Varazdin
21
W
22/04/2026
Istra 1961Dinamo Zagreb
02
W
18/04/2026
Dinamo ZagrebHNK Rijeka
22
D

Referee Profile

Bulat Sariyev4 matches analysed

4.27Cards per match
4.12Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 37% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded

About the FC Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

FC Thun and Dinamo Zagreb have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.