Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction

Merkur Arena, Graz·Gergo Bogar, Hungary 21/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.48
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+14.8%
Sturm Graz Rest
6 days
Heart Of Midlothian Rest
3 days

Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian: result, form and history

Sturm Graz beat Heart Of Midlothian 4-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 21 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
40%1.74
X
20%3.75
2
40%4.30
Double Chance
1X
60%1.19
X2
61%2.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.68
No
51%2.07
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.58 = 2.80
Over 1.5
77%1.22
Over 2.5
52%1.73
Over 3.5
32%2.75
Under 1.5
23%3.88
Under 2.5
48%2.05
Under 3.5
68%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.5 = 8.9
Over 8.5
54%1.48
Over 9.5
41%1.78
Over 10.5
30%2.23
Under 8.5
46%2.43
Under 9.5
59%1.90
Under 10.5
70%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 1.9 = 4.4
Over 3.5
66%1.33
Over 4.5
52%1.78
Under 3.5
34%2.85
Under 4.5
48%1.94

Match Events

4'J. Gorenc StankovicAssist: J. Mitchell
46'S. Seidl INO. Kiteishvili out
48'C. BorchgrevinkRoughing
50'J. MitchellAssist: O. Kiteishvili
53'L. WeinhandlAssist: S. Jatta
57'J. Gorenc Stankovic
59'J. HeilAssist: L. Weinhandl
59'A. Kyziridis INS. Guendouz out
59'P. Kabore INA. Ba-Sy out
59'C. Miller INS. Kerjota out
70'S. Wlodarczyk ING. Haider out
70'S. Jatta INN. Weiper out
70'J. Hodl INR. Fosso out
75'B. Spittal INT. Renaud out
79'E. Soglo INA. Malic out
84'O. McEntee INT. Magnusson out
87'C. BragaFoul

Lineups

Sturm Graz
4-4-2Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch
Heart Of Midlothian
4-2-3-1Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Avg rating7.20
Avg rating6.38
Daniil Khudyakov7.553D. Khudyakov
Jurgen Heil8.928J. Heil
Albert Vallci6.65A. Vallci
Jeyland Mitchell8.22J. Mitchell
Emran Soglo7.218E. Soglo
Simon Seidl6.619S. Seidl
Jon Gorenc StankovićC7.94J. Gorenc Stanković
Luca Weinhandl8.539L. Weinhandl
Jacob Hödl7.743J. Hödl
Szymon Włodarczyk6.217S. Włodarczyk
Seedy Jatta6.620S. Jatta
Alexander Schwolow5.91A. Schwolow
Christian Borchgrevink5.62C. Borchgrevink
Malachi Fagan-Walcott6.664M. Fagan-Walcott
Jamie McCart6.55J. McCart
Harry MilneC6.218H. Milne
Blair Spittal6.516B. Spittal
Oisin McEntee6.66O. McEntee
Calvin Miller5.97C. Miller
Cláudio Braga6.210C. Braga
Alexandros Kyziridis6.289A. Kyziridis
Pierre Landry Kaboré6.211P. Landry Kaboré

Sturm Graz Substitutes

22Ammar Helac
41Elias Lorenz
21Petar Petrović
23Arjan Malić79'for E. Soglo6.2
30Paul Koller
27Gabriel Haider70'for S. Wlodarczyk
10Otar Kiteishvili46'for S. Seidl8.0
15Gizo Mamageishvili
80Ryan Fosso70'for J. Hodl6.3
11Axel Kayombo6.3
26Belmin Beganović
44Nelson Weiper70'for S. Jatta6.5

Heart Of Midlothian Substitutes

28Zander Clark
30Ryan Fulton
3Stephen Kingsley
17Stuart Findlay
23Jordi Altena
12Tom Renaud75'for B. Spittal6.2
22Tomas Magnusson84'for O. McEntee
19Severin Sabri Guendouz59'for A. Kyziridis7.0
21James Wilson
29Sabah Kerjota59'for C. Miller7.2
77Amadou Ba-Sy59'for P. Kabore6.9

Match Stats

Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
33%Ball Possession67%
4Corner Kicks12
1Yellow Cards2
20Total Shots19
6Shots on Goal6
9Shots off Goal7
16Shots Inside Box11
4Shots Outside Box8
5Blocked Shots6
18Fouls13
0Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves2
222Total Passes442
145Passes Accurate352
65%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
1744Elo Rating 1661
1.98Attack 1.39
1.76Defense 0.52
66%Hit Rate 17%
14.1Shots per Game 16.6
5.1Shots on Target 4.2
5.3Corners per Game 4.0
2.5Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.8 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

Sturm GrazSturm Graz
6W3D1L
15/07/2026
Sturm GrazPogon Szczecin
10
W
11/07/2026
Sturm GrazSanfrecce Hiroshima
41
W
08/07/2026
Sturm GrazKalsdorf
41
W
03/07/2026
Sturm GrazFK Košice
22
D
30/06/2026
Sturm GrazLNZ Cherkasy
26
L
26/06/2026
Sturm GrazMura
50
W
17/05/2026
Sturm GrazRapid Vienna
20
W
10/05/2026
TSV HartbergSturm Graz
24
W
03/05/2026
Red Bull SalzburgSturm Graz
11
D
26/04/2026
Sturm GrazAustria Vienna
11
D
Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian
6W2D2L
17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
21
W
10/07/2026
LivingstonHeart Of Midlothian
21
L
16/05/2026
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
31
L
13/05/2026
Heart Of MidlothianFalkirk
30
W
09/05/2026
MotherwellHeart Of Midlothian
11
D
04/05/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRangers
21
W
26/04/2026
HibernianHeart Of Midlothian
12
W
11/04/2026
Heart Of MidlothianMotherwell
31
W
05/04/2026
LivingstonHeart Of Midlothian
22
D
21/03/2026
Heart Of MidlothianDundee
10
W

Referee Profile

Gergo Bogar156 matches

4.78Cards per match
4.43Yellow cards per match
0.35Red cards per match
28.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gergo Bogar4.78
Other referees4.48

4.78 cards a match, 0.30 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.48).

Cards come from 51 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Qualifying Round 1
Qualifying Round 2
Qualifying Round 3
Play-offs
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Slovan Bratislava
Seeded
Mjallby AIF
Seeded
Aarhus
Seeded
Lech Poznan
Seeded
Fenerbahçe
Seeded
Gornik Zabrze
Seeded
FC Thun
Seeded
Dinamo Zagreb
Seeded
Sturm Graz
Seeded
Heart Of Midlothian
Seeded
FK Crvena Zvezda
Seeded
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Seeded
Omonia Nicosia
Seeded
Celje
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Viking
Seeded
AEK Athens FC
Seeded
Celtic
Seeded
Lask Linz
Seeded
Union St. Gilloise
Seeded
Bodo/Glimt
Seeded
Olympiakos Piraeus
Seeded
NEC Nijmegen
Seeded
Sparta Praha
Seeded
Lyon
Seeded

About the Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About UEFA Champions League

More UEFA Champions League fixtures and forecasts are on the UEFA Champions League Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Sturm Graz have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Sturm Graz and Heart Of Midlothian have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.