Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico Prediction

Primera DivisiónPeru Peru · Clausura - 3
Alianza Lima
3-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Alianza Atletico
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima·Michael Espinoza, Peru 02/08/2026
Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
3-1
Finished
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
69%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.38
SignalSOLIDModel60%SurpriseMediumGap-3.0%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.52
SignalHIGHModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+12.6%
Alianza Lima Rest
6 days
Alianza Atletico Rest
8 days

Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico: result, form and history

Alianza Lima beat Alianza Atletico 3-1 in the Primera División on 2 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Alianza Atletico had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Alianza Lima.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
70%1.38
X
19%4.33
2
11%8.38
Double Chance
1X
89%1.06
X2
31%2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%2.30
No
39%1.57
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.64 + 0.87 = 3.51
Over 1.5
97%1.30
Over 2.5
66%2.00
Over 3.5
48%3.48
Under 1.5
3%3.25
Under 2.5
34%1.76
Under 3.5
52%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.1 + 4 = 10
Over 8.5
60%2.03
Over 9.5
49%2.71
Over 10.5
37%3.40
Under 8.5
40%1.70
Under 9.5
51%1.40
Under 10.5
63%1.26
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.5 = 5
Over 3.5
73%-
Over 4.5
55%1.71
Under 3.5
27%-
Under 4.5
45%2.01

Match Events

14'E. CastilloAssist: J. Velez
28'J. Ingratti
32'Paolo GuerreroUnsportsmanlike conduct
40'G. A. Larios SaavedraFoul
45'R. GarcesFoul
51'W. GuzmanOG
57'W. GuzmanFoul
66'J. del Castillo INA. Munoz out
70'Paolo Guerrero INA. Cantero out
73'G. A. Larios Saavedra INJ. Molina out
79'J. VelezAssist: A. Cantero
80'A. MunozFoul
83'C. Penilla INF. Flores out
83'J. Ingratti INJ. Perez out
83'G. Diaz INJ. Lujan out
84'E. Castillo INJ. Archimbaud out
90+1'F. Gaibor INJ. Castillo out
90+1'R. Garces INN. Diaz out

Lineups

Alianza Lima
4-1-3-2Coach: Pablo Guede
Alianza Atletico
4-2-3-1Coach: Federico Urciuoli
Avg rating7.13
Avg rating6.45
Alejandro Duarte6.31A. Duarte
Luis Advíncula7.217L. Advíncula
Renzo Garcés6.96R. Garcés
Mateo Antoni6.93M. Antoni
Marco Huamán6.213M. Huamán
Esteban Pavez7.35E. Pavez
Fernando Gaibor8.67F. Gaibor
Jairo Vélez7.620J. Vélez
Federico Girotti6.799F. Girotti
Eryc Castillo7.98E. Castillo
Paolo GuerreroC6.734P. Guerrero
Steven Rivadeneyra7.031S. Rivadeneyra
Erick Perleche6.521E. Perleche
Román Suárez7.22R. Suárez
Williams Guzmán4.925W. Guzmán
Anthony Gordillo5.624A. Gordillo
Hernan LupúC6.315H. Lupú
German Diaz6.510G. Diaz
Guillermo Larios6.211G. Larios
Jorge del Castillo6.622J. del Castillo
Cristian Penilla6.917C. Penilla
José Ingratti7.227J. Ingratti

Alianza Lima Substitutes

11Alan Cantero70'for Paolo Guerrero7.3
29Jean Pierre Archimbaud84'for E. Castillo
2Nicolás Díaz90+1'for R. Garces
15Jesús Castillo90+1'for F. Gaibor
12Ángel de la Cruz
4Gianfranco Chávez
22Christian Neira
30Geray Motta
25Gaspar Gentile

Alianza Atletico Substitutes

23Ariel Muñoz66'for J. del Castillo80'6.2
29Jairo Molina73'for G. A. Larios Saavedra6.2
6José Luján83'for G. Diaz6.6
20Jimmy Pérez83'for J. Ingratti6.6
8Franchesco Flores83'for C. Penilla6.7
95Daniel Prieto
19Jesus Mendieta
16Stefano Fernández
77Christian Valladolid

Match Stats

Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
75%Ball Possession25%
8Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
19Total Shots7
5Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal3
14Shots Inside Box5
5Shots Outside Box2
5Blocked Shots1
6Fouls9
2Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
534Total Passes185
478Passes Accurate122
90%Pass Accuracy66%

Team Comparison

Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico
1715Elo Rating 1603
1.96Attack 1.58
2.03Defense 0.39
69%Hit Rate 36%
17.3Shots per Game 13.8
4.3Shots on Target 4.6
5.9Corners per Game 4.6
1.8Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+112 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.51 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.8 in first half)
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Alianza LimaAlianza Lima5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico3Wins · 30%
2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Copa De La Liga28/06/2026
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
12
Primera División15/02/2026
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Lima
00
Primera División28/07/2025
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
11
Primera División15/02/2025
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Lima
31
Primera División21/07/2024
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
20
Primera División04/02/2024
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Lima
02
Primera División27/08/2023
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
10
Primera División09/04/2023
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Lima
01
Primera División27/07/2022
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
10
Primera División27/02/2022
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Lima
42

Recent Form

Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
4W4D2L
26/07/2026
Comerciantes UnidosAlianza Lima
22
D20/07/2026
Alianza LimaSport Huancayo
21
W
28/06/2026
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
12
L
21/06/2026
Carlos A. MannucciAlianza Lima
31
L
14/06/2026
Cesar VallejoAlianza Lima
00
D
31/05/2026
FC CajamarcaAlianza Lima
11
D
24/05/2026
Alianza LimaClub Deportivo Los Chankas
30
W
17/05/2026
CiencianoAlianza Lima
01
W
10/05/2026
Alianza LimaSporting Cristal
11
D
03/05/2026
Alianza LimaUCV Moquegua
21
W
Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico
5W2D3L
24/07/2026
Alianza AtleticoClub Deportivo Los Chankas
31
W19/07/2026
CuscoAlianza Atletico
41
L
10/07/2026
Alianza AtleticoMolinos El Pirata
32
W
28/06/2026
Alianza LimaAlianza Atletico
12
W
19/06/2026
Alianza AtleticoCesar Vallejo
20
W
13/06/2026
Carlos A. MannucciAlianza Atletico
01
W
31/05/2026
FBC MelgarAlianza Atletico
31
L
29/05/2026
TigreAlianza Atletico
20
L
24/05/2026
Alianza AtleticoFC Cajamarca
11
D
22/05/2026
MacaraAlianza Atletico
00
D

Referee Profile

Michael Espinoza156 matches

5.55Cards per match
5.07Yellow cards per match
0.48Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Michael Espinoza5.55
Other referees5.40

5.55 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.40).

Cards come from 126 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera Division: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Alianza LimaAlianza Lima30198350:20+3065WWWWL
2UniversitarioUniversitario30168652:34+1856WLWLW
3FBC MelgarFBC Melgar30158753:34+1953WLWWL
4Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso311561047:33+1451WWWLL
5CuscoCusco311631246:43+351DDWWL
6CiencianoCienciano311551153:43+1050WWDLW
7Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico311371148:46+246LWWLL
8Club Deportivo Los ChankasClub Deportivo Los Chankas311371139:51-1246DLLWW
9Sporting CristalSporting Cristal301351254:45+944DLLWL
10Sport HuancayoSport Huancayo311351344:48-444WLLWD
11Sport BoysSport Boys301181134:33+141LDWLL
12Juan Pablo II CollegeJuan Pablo II College311181247:56-941LLDDL
13Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos308101241:44-334LWWDD
14Atletico GrauAtletico Grau31971528:38-1034LLLWL
15ADTADT31791533:45-1230DWWDL
16FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca31771744:60-1628WWLLD
17UCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua31771725:46-2128DLWLW
18UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca31581836:55-1918LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Alianza LimaAlianza Lima3050:2065
2UniversitarioUniversitario3052:3456
3FBC MelgarFBC Melgar3053:3453
4Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso3147:3351
5CuscoCusco3146:4351
6CiencianoCienciano3153:4350
7Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico3148:4646
8Club Deportivo Los ChankasClub Deportivo Los Chankas3139:5146
9Sporting CristalSporting Cristal3054:4544
10Sport HuancayoSport Huancayo3144:4844
11Sport BoysSport Boys3034:3341
12Juan Pablo II CollegeJuan Pablo II College3147:5641
13Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos3041:4434
14Atletico GrauAtletico Grau3128:3834
15ADTADT3133:4530
16FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca3144:6028
17UCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua3125:4628
18UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca3136:5518

Primera Division: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Alianza LimaAlianza Lima17124130:8+2240WWWWL
2Club Deportivo Los ChankasClub Deportivo Los Chankas17104325:21+434DLLWW
3CiencianoCienciano17103434:22+1233WWDLW
4UniversitarioUniversitario1785424:15+929WLWLW
5FBC MelgarFBC Melgar1784529:20+928WLWWL
6CuscoCusco1783621:24-327DDWWL
7Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso1775521:18+326WWWLL
8Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico1756620:18+221LWWLL
9Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos1756618:20-221LWWDD
10ADTADT1755722:21+120DWWDL
11Sport BoysSport Boys1755715:19-420LDWLL
12Sporting CristalSporting Cristal1754828:30-219DLLWL
13UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca1746721:26-518LLDLD
14UCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua1753917:24-718DLWLW
15FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca1745823:28-517WWLLD
16Atletico GrauAtletico Grau1744912:18-616LLLWL
17Sport HuancayoSport Huancayo1744921:31-1016WLLWD
18Juan Pablo II CollegeJuan Pablo II College1744922:40-1816LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Alianza LimaAlianza Lima1730:840
2Club Deportivo Los ChankasClub Deportivo Los Chankas1725:2134
3CiencianoCienciano1734:2233
4UniversitarioUniversitario1724:1529
5FBC MelgarFBC Melgar1729:2028
6CuscoCusco1721:2427
7Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso1721:1826
8Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico1720:1821
9Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos1718:2021
10ADTADT1722:2120
11Sport BoysSport Boys1715:1920
12Sporting CristalSporting Cristal1728:3019
13UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca1721:2618
14UCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua1717:2418
15FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca1723:2817
16Atletico GrauAtletico Grau1712:1816
17Sport HuancayoSport Huancayo1721:3116
18Juan Pablo II CollegeJuan Pablo II College1722:4016

Primera Division: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Sport HuancayoSport Huancayo1491423:17+628WLLWD
2UniversitarioUniversitario1383228:19+927WLWLW
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal1381426:15+1125DLLWL
4Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso1481526:15+1125WWWLL
5FBC MelgarFBC Melgar1374224:14+1025WLWWL
6Juan Pablo II CollegeJuan Pablo II College1474325:16+925LLDDL
7Alianza LimaAlianza Lima1374220:12+825WWWWL
8Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico1481528:28025LWWLL
9CuscoCusco1480625:19+624DDWWL
10Sport BoysSport Boys1363419:14+521LDWLL
11Atletico GrauAtletico Grau1453616:20-418LLLWL
12CiencianoCienciano1452719:21-217WWDLW
13Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos1334623:24-113LWWDD
14Club Deportivo Los ChankasClub Deportivo Los Chankas1433814:30-1612DLLWW
15FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca1432921:32-1111WWLLD
16ADTADT1424811:24-1310DWWDL
17UCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua142488:22-1410DLWLW
18UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca14121115:29-145LLDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Sport HuancayoSport Huancayo1423:1728
2UniversitarioUniversitario1328:1927
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal1326:1525
4Deportivo GarcilasoDeportivo Garcilaso1426:1525
5FBC MelgarFBC Melgar1324:1425
6Juan Pablo II CollegeJuan Pablo II College1425:1625
7Alianza LimaAlianza Lima1320:1225
8Alianza AtleticoAlianza Atletico1428:2825
9CuscoCusco1425:1924
10Sport BoysSport Boys1319:1421
11Atletico GrauAtletico Grau1416:2018
12CiencianoCienciano1419:2117
13Comerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos1323:2413
14Club Deportivo Los ChankasClub Deportivo Los Chankas1414:3012
15FC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca1421:3211
16ADTADT1411:2410
17UCV MoqueguaUCV Moquegua148:2210
18UTC CajamarcaUTC Cajamarca1415:295
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About the Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Alianza Lima and Alianza Atletico in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, Alianza Lima are 1st and Alianza Atletico 7th, 19 points apart. League goal record so far: Alianza Lima 50-20, Alianza Atletico 48-46. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.