Almeria vs Castellón Prediction

Almeria
3-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Castellón
UD Almeria Stadium, Almeria·Luis Bestard Servera, Spain 09/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.50
SignalHIGHModel17%SurpriseHigh
Almeria Rest
3 days
Castellón Rest
3 days

Almeria vs Castellón: the result in context

Almeria beat Castellón 3-2 in the Segunda División on 9 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.4 a game across 7 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.31
X
23%3.45
2
33%2.82
Double Chance
1X
67%1.40
X2
56%1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.50
No
49%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 1.01 = 2.40
Over 1.5
72%1.18
Over 2.5
49%1.65
Over 3.5
26%2.60
Under 1.5
28%4.45
Under 2.5
51%2.20
Under 3.5
74%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 4.6 = 9.2
Over 8.5
60%1.56
Over 9.5
51%1.93
Over 10.5
38%2.48
Under 8.5
40%2.20
Under 9.5
49%1.74
Under 10.5
62%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.5 = 4.7
Over 3.5
67%-
Over 4.5
49%1.34
Under 3.5
33%-
Under 4.5
51%2.85

Match Events

37'D. ChirinoRoughing
41'A. EmbarbaAssist: D. Lopy
57'A. CalatravaAssist: B. Gerenabarrena
66'D. LopyRoughing
67'Leo Baptistao INJ. Morcillo out
68'A. Embarba INA. Puigmal out
68'P. Santiago INRonaldo out
69'A. SienraAssist: Ronaldo
74'Rodrigo ElyRoughing
75'D. Chirino INM. Luna out
75'D. Lopy INN. Melamed out
80'A. MunozAssist: M. de la Fuente
84'A. Sienra INL. Alcazar out
84'R. Sanchez INI. Suero out
87'BarriTripping
90+1'M. de la Fuente INThalys out
90+4'S. DzodicAssist: N. Melamed
90+5'N. MelamedUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+7'B. Gerenabarrena INA. Garcia out
90+7'Barri INT. De Nipoti out

Lineups

Almeria
4-2-3-1Coach: Joan Rubi
Castellón
4-4-2Coach: Pablo Hernandez
Avg rating6.69
Avg rating6.66
Andrés Fernández6.31A. Fernández
Daijiro Chirino6.022D. Chirino
Rodrigo Ely6.25R. Ely
Federico Bonini6.618F. Bonini
Álex Muñoz6.73Á. Muñoz
Stefan Džodić8.029S. Džodić
Dion Lopy7.017D. Lopy
Léo BaptistãoC6.312L. Baptistão
Sergio Arribas7.211S. Arribas
Adrián Embarba7.323A. Embarba
Miguel de la Fuente6.724M. de la Fuente
Romain Matthys5.913R. Matthys
Pablo Santiago6.518P. Santiago
Alberto JiménezC5.95A. Jiménez
Fabrizio Brignani6.33F. Brignani
Agustín Sienra8.04A. Sienra
Álex Calatrava7.021Á. Calatrava
Beñat Gerenabarrena7.515B. Gerenabarrena
Diego Barri6.78D. Barri
Raúl Sánchez6.714R. Sánchez
Ousmane Camara6.29O. Camara
Adam Jakobsen7.019A. Jakobsen

Almeria Substitutes

2Arnau Puigmal68'for A. Embarba6.2
7Jon Morcillo67'for Leo Baptistao6.7
13Fernando Martínez
21Chumi
4Nélson Monte
16Marcos Luna75'for D. Chirino6.6
20Álex Centelles
10Nicolás Melamed75'for D. Lopy90+5'6.6
14Iddrisu Baba
8Gui
19Patrick Soko
9Thalys90+1'for M. de la Fuente

Castellón Substitutes

25Ronaldo68'for P. Santiago6.9
1Amir Abedzadeh
17Salva Ruiz
2Tincho Conde
55Michał Willmann
12Lucas Alcazar84'for A. Sienra6.2
37Carlos Segura Clausell
29Tommaso De Nipoti90+7'for Barri
10Israel Suero84'for R. Sanchez6.5
6Marc-Olivier Doué
23Alvaro Garcia
11Douglas Aurélio

Match Stats

AlmeriaCastellón
47%Ball Possession53%
5Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots10
4Shots on Goal6
8Shots off Goal2
13Shots Inside Box7
0Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots2
20Fouls14
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves1
320Total Passes358
234Passes Accurate279
73%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

AlmeriaAlmeria
CastellónCastellón
1727Elo Rating 1726
2.51Attack 2.04
1.84Defense 2.58
73%Hit Rate 58%
12.8Shots per Game 13.7
5.0Shots on Target 4.8
4.7Corners per Game 4.5
1.9Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AlmeriaAlmeria
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CastellónCastellón
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.7 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

AlmeriaAlmeria3Wins · 43%
Draws114%
CastellónCastellón3Wins · 43%
3.4Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Segunda División06/06/2026
CastellónAlmeria
11
Segunda División02/04/2026
CastellónAlmeria
20
Segunda División26/10/2025
AlmeriaCastellón
10
Segunda División18/04/2025
CastellónAlmeria
41
Segunda División16/09/2024
AlmeriaCastellón
25
Segunda División30/01/2021
AlmeriaCastellón
31
Segunda División28/10/2020
CastellónAlmeria
12

Recent Form

AlmeriaAlmeria
5W2D3L
06/06/2026
CastellónAlmeria
11
D
31/05/2026
AlmeriaValladolid
10
W
24/05/2026
Sporting GijonAlmeria
31
L
16/05/2026
AlmeriaLas Palmas
12
L
09/05/2026
BurgosAlmeria
00
D
04/05/2026
AlmeriaMirandes
42
W
26/04/2026
Granada CFAlmeria
24
W
19/04/2026
AlmeriaMalaga
32
W
12/04/2026
Racing SantanderAlmeria
51
L
05/04/2026
AlmeriaLeganes
21
W
CastellónCastellón
5W4D1L
06/06/2026
CastellónAlmeria
11
D
31/05/2026
CastellónEibar
21
W
24/05/2026
HuescaCastellón
01
W
15/05/2026
CastellónCadiz
11
D
09/05/2026
AD Ceuta FCCastellón
11
D
02/05/2026
CastellónCordoba
12
L
25/04/2026
MalagaCastellón
23
W
18/04/2026
CastellónBurgos
31
W
12/04/2026
MirandesCastellón
22
D
06/04/2026
CastellónGranada CF
32
W

Referee Profile

Luis Bestard Servera27 matches

5.38Cards per match
5.19Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
26.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Luis Bestard Servera5.38
Other referees5.45

5.38 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.45).

Cards come from 26 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Semi-finals
Final

League Table

Segunda División 2025
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing SantanderRacing Santander422571090:61+2982WDWWW
2Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna422211965:44+2177LWWWW
3AlmeriaAlmeria422281281:63+1874WLLDW
4MalagaMalaga4221101175:52+2373WDWWW
5Las PalmasLas Palmas422013957:40+1773WDWLW
6CastellónCastellón4220121070:51+1972WWDDL
7BurgosBurgos4220121048:33+1572WWWDD
8EibarEibar4219101352:40+1267LWLWL
9Sporting GijonSporting Gijon421871760:54+661WWWLL
10CordobaCordoba4217101557:61-461DLLWW
11AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC4217101551:63-1261WWLDW
12AlbaceteAlbacete4216111556:55+159LWWWW
13FC AndorraFC Andorra4216101662:54+858LLLWL
14Granada CFGranada CF4212121850:56-648LLLLW
15Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II4212111952:61-947DLDWD
16LeganesLeganes4211131843:51-846WLDLL
17ValladolidValladolid4212102044:57-1346LLLWL
18CadizCadiz4211102141:61-2043LWDLD
19MirandesMirandes4210102247:69-2240LWDLL
20HuescaHuesca429112241:63-2238DLDLL
21Cultural LeonesaCultural Leonesa429102339:68-2937DLWLD
22ZaragozaZaragoza428122235:59-2436LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing SantanderRacing Santander4290:6182
2Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna4265:4477
3AlmeriaAlmeria4281:6374
4MalagaMalaga4275:5273
5Las PalmasLas Palmas4257:4073
6CastellónCastellón4270:5172
7BurgosBurgos4248:3372
8EibarEibar4252:4067
9Sporting GijonSporting Gijon4260:5461
10CordobaCordoba4257:6161
11AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC4251:6361
12AlbaceteAlbacete4256:5559
13FC AndorraFC Andorra4262:5458
14Granada CFGranada CF4250:5648
15Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II4252:6147
16LeganesLeganes4243:5146
17ValladolidValladolid4244:5746
18CadizCadiz4241:6143
19MirandesMirandes4247:6940
20HuescaHuesca4241:6338
21Cultural LeonesaCultural Leonesa4239:6837
22ZaragozaZaragoza4235:5936
PromotionRelegation

About the Almeria vs Castellón forecast

As a knockout tie in the Segunda División, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Almeria and Castellón in the Segunda División table

In the Segunda División table, Almeria are 3rd and Castellón 6th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Almeria 81-63, Castellón 70-51. The full standings are on the Segunda División Table 2025 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Almeria have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Castellón have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.