Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction

Arsenal Stadium (Tula), Tula 09/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
66%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalSOLIDModel41%SurpriseMediumGap-7.1%
Arsenal Tula Rest
5 days
Spartak Kostroma Rest
13 days

Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma: the result in context

Arsenal Tula beat Spartak Kostroma 3-2 in the First League on 9 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Spartak Kostroma had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Arsenal Tula.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.42
X
31%3.17
2
34%2.88
Double Chance
1X
66%1.36
X2
65%1.49
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.87
No
49%1.82
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.02 + 1.32 = 2.34
Over 1.5
68%1.34
Over 2.5
42%2.27
Over 3.5
22%4.00
Under 1.5
32%2.78
Under 2.5
58%1.61
Under 3.5
78%1.17
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

6'Timur Melekestsev
23'Artem Biryukov
30'Daniil Plotnikov
37'Amur Kalmykov(Penalty)
38'Oleg Nikiforenko
39'Oleg Nikiforenko
46'Oleg Nikiforenko INDavid Karaev out
46'Nikita Glushkov INMilos Brnovic out
54'Milos Brnovic
63'David Karaev
63'Georgiy Uridia
66'Ivan Enin INAleksandr Alekhin out
66'Georgiy Uridia INDavid Davidyan out
68'Nader Mohammadi INKirill Chursin out
75'Vladislav Kamilov
75'Rashid Magomedov INIgor Gorbunov out
76'Timur Melekestsev
84'Amur Kalmykov INSergey Bugriev out
84'Vladislav Kamilov INRuslan Chervyakov out
90+2'Marko Bugarin

Lineups

Arsenal Tula
3-4-1-2Coach: D. Alenichev
Spartak Kostroma
4-4-2Coach: Evgeniy Taranukhin
A. Melikhov42A. Melikhov
D. Plotnikov77D. Plotnikov
D. Penchikov4D. Penchikov
K. Gotsuk24K. Gotsuk
G. Uridia22G. Uridia
D. Shamkin8D. Shamkin
I. Enin35I. Enin
N. Glushkov19N. Glushkov
A. Biryukov25A. Biryukov
T. Melekestsev23T. Melekestsev
R. Magomedov11R. Magomedov
M. Gaydash68M. Gaydash
D. Zhilmostnykh5D. Zhilmostnykh
N. Mohammadi6N. Mohammadi
M. Bugarin21M. Bugarin
A. Mokhammad96A. Mokhammad
V. Kamilov18V. Kamilov
D. Kaptilovich17D. Kaptilovich
A. Nemchenko22A. Nemchenko
O. Nikiforenko82O. Nikiforenko
Armin Spahic87A. Spahic
A. Kalmykov90A. Kalmykov

Arsenal Tula Substitutes

14M. Brnović46'for Nikita Glushkov54'
9D. Davidyan66'for Georgiy Uridia
82A. Alekhin66'for Ivan Enin
71A. Efremov
17I. Gorbunov75'for Rashid Magomedov
5Y. Krashevskiy
36M. Levashov
18M. Tsulaia
75T. Zhamaletdinov
10I. Zhigulev

Spartak Kostroma Substitutes

70R. Chervyakov84'for Vladislav Kamilov
69K. Chursin68'for Nader Mohammadi
8N. Demchenko
11D. Ghurtskaia
10D. Karaev46'for Oleg Nikiforenko63'
73D. Kirakosyan
77I. Meshcheryakov
66Maksim Nikiforov
13I. Rubtsov
50E. Shamov
3S. Bugriev84'for Amur Kalmykov

Match Stats

Arsenal TulaSpartak Kostroma
48%Ball Possession52%
6Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards4
9Total Shots11
7Shots on Goal7
2Shots off Goal4
0Blocked Shots0

Team Comparison

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma
1396Elo Rating 1526
1.55Attack 1.34
0.09Defense 1.85
39%Hit Rate 36%
3.4Shots per Game 8.1
2.7Shots on Target 3.6
3.0Corners per Game 4.6
2.7Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula0Wins · 0%
Draws267%
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1Wins · 33%
2.3Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored3 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

Friendlies Clubs21/06/2026
Arsenal TulaSpartak Kostroma
11
First League25/04/2026
Spartak KostromaArsenal Tula
11
First League13/09/2025
Arsenal TulaSpartak Kostroma
12

Recent Form

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula
1W4D5L
04/10/2026
CSKA MoscowArsenal Tula
31
L
16/09/2026
EniseyArsenal Tula
31
L
13/09/2026
Arsenal TulaSka-khabarovsk
22
D
08/09/2026
TekstilshchikArsenal Tula
10
L
05/09/2026
Volga UlyanovskArsenal Tula
30
L
29/08/2026
Arsenal TulaUral
22
D
24/08/2026
VelesArsenal Tula
20
L
20/08/2026
Arsenal TulaRotor Volgograd
21
W
15/08/2026
LeningradetsArsenal Tula
00
D
08/08/2026
Shinnik YaroslavlArsenal Tula
22
D
Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma
6W2D2L
26/09/2026
Spartak KostromaUral
12
L
18/09/2026
Volga UlyanovskSpartak Kostroma
01
W
14/09/2026
Spartak KostromaFK Neftekhimik
10
W
08/09/2026
RyazanSpartak Kostroma
02
W
05/09/2026
ChelyabinskSpartak Kostroma
01
W
31/08/2026
Spartak KostromaRotor Volgograd
10
W
21/08/2026
Torpedo MoskvaSpartak Kostroma
30
L
17/08/2026
Spartak KostromaFC UFA
11
D
09/08/2026
Ska-khabarovskSpartak Kostroma
13
W
01/08/2026
Spartak KostromaEnisey
22
D

League Table

First League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod16141148:15+3343WWWWW
2FC SochiFC Sochi16102426:17+932LWWWD
3UralUral1694327:11+1631WWLLW
4Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1685328:13+1529DDWWD
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1684422:16+628DLWLL
6VelesVeles1784521:20+128DLDWL
7Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1658320:17+323LWDWD
8FC UFAFC UFA1657418:15+322DLWLD
9Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1764722:23-122DWWDW
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1655623:18+520DDLDW
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1654719:33-1419LWLWL
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1653821:26-518WLLWD
13LeningradetsLeningradets1645715:26-1117WDLLW
14KAMAZKAMAZ1635820:28-814DLWDW
15EniseyEnisey1635816:33-1714LLLLD
16Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1634920:28-813WWLDD
17FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik16411111:24-1313LDLLL
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1625912:26-1411DLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod1648:1543
2FC SochiFC Sochi1626:1732
3UralUral1627:1131
4Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva1628:1329
5Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma1622:1628
6VelesVeles1721:2028
7Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl1620:1723
8FC UFAFC UFA1618:1522
9Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk1722:2322
10Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd1623:1820
11Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula1619:3319
12ChelyabinskChelyabinsk1621:2618
13LeningradetsLeningradets1615:2617
14KAMAZKAMAZ1620:2814
15EniseyEnisey1616:3314
16Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk1620:2813
17FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik1611:2413
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik1612:2611

About the Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma forecast

The forecasts for this First League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Arsenal Tula and Spartak Kostroma in the First League table

In the First League table, Spartak Kostroma are 5th and Arsenal Tula 11th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Arsenal Tula 19-33, Spartak Kostroma 22-16. The full standings are on the First League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.