Aucas vs LDU de Quito Prediction
Ecuador · Championship Group - 3
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito·Patricio Parrao 17/10/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.28
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-6.5%
Aucas Rest
7 days
LDU de Quito Rest
6 days
Aucas vs LDU de Quito: the result in context
Aucas and LDU de Quito drew 1-1 in the Liga Pro on 17 Oct 2026. LDU de Quito had gone in with the better form, having won 2 of their previous five against none for Aucas.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.5 goals a game. LDU de Quito tend to win more corners, 7.5 a game to 3.4 for Aucas.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
128%3.32
X29%3.05
243%2.12
Double Chance
1X57%1.62
X272%1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.91
No49%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.06 + 1.46 = 2.52
Over 1.568%1.40
Over 2.544%2.25
Over 3.525%4.00
Under 1.532%2.72
Under 2.556%1.58
Under 3.575%1.20
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
8'Mateo BurdissoFoul
12'B. Oyola
43'B. Oyola INAlexander Bolaños out
45'Lucas Rodriguez INAlexander Alvarado out
45'Leonel Quinonez INJose Carabali out
45'Janner Corozo INElvis Kevin Velasco Chere out
45+2'Penalty confirmedMichael Estrada
45+4'Michael Estrada(Penalty)
50'Agostino SpinaDissent
61'Alexander Bolaños INLuis Arroyo out
69'Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo INMichael Carcelen out
69'Rafael Monti Azpiazú INByron Yardel Carabalí Delgado out
Lineups
AucasLDU de Quito
3-4-1-2Coach: Gustavo ÁlvarezAvg ratingAvg rating
13H. Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez
37A. Zova
4M. Burdisso
2S. Morales
28R. Quiñónez
6A. Spina
30B. Oyola
21P. Guzmán
18A. David Mena Montenegro
10A. Preciado
9R. Monti Azpiazu
1G. Valle
30G. Allala
4R. Ade
33L. Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
57M. Weigandt
20F. Cornejo
8J. Pretell
23Y. Quinonez
7L. Rodríguez
13J. Corozo
11M. EstradaAucas Substitutes
11A. Bolaños43'for B. Oyola61'for Luis Arroyo
29Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza61'replaced by Alexander Bolaños
7J. Andrade
31B. Carabalí69'for Rafael Monti Azpiazú
34M. Carcelén69'for Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo
1I. Chaves
5Thiago
17C. Zambrano
63A. Garcia
LDU de Quito Substitutes
22Alexander Domínguez Carabalí
5Sebastían González Baquero
3Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo
27Ruddy Mina
18Washington Nahir Olvera Zambrano
31J. RodrÃguez
44L. Segovia
77K. Velasco45'for Janner Corozo
26I. Zambrano
28J. Cuero
67J. Carabalí45'for Leonel Quinonez
10Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel45'for Lucas Rodriguez
Match Stats
AucasLDU de Quito 39%Ball Possession61%
6Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards0
9Total Shots13
4Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal7
4Shots Inside Box7
5Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots3
11Fouls9
4Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves3
249Total Passes391
186Passes Accurate320
8Free Kicks11
Team Comparison
AucasLDU de Quito1570Elo Rating 1677
0.83Attack 1.76
1.74Defense 1.83
0%Hit Rate 59%
7.7Shots per Game 16.8
1.9Shots on Target 5.0
3.4Corners per Game 7.5
1.7Cards per Game 1.4
AI Insights
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Aucas- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LDU de Quito- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Aucas2Wins · 20%Draws440%
LDU de Quito4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%1.5Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10
Previous meetings
27/08/2026LDU de QuitoAucas10
17/08/2026AucasLDU de Quito01
23/04/2026LDU de QuitoAucas00
09/08/2025AucasLDU de Quito10
18/04/2025LDU de QuitoAucas31
17/08/2024AucasLDU de Quito01
16/03/2024LDU de QuitoAucas12
14/08/2023AucasLDU de Quito00
04/03/2023LDU de QuitoAucas11
07/08/2022AucasLDU de Quito11
Clásico capitalinoFull head-to-head record
Recent Form
Aucas3W3D4L
10/10/2026
Independiente del ValleAucasAucas
Libertad
Independiente del ValleAucas21
L19/09/2026Aucas
Macara
AucasMacara12
L12/09/2026
Manta FCAucas
Manta FCAucas00
D07/09/2026Aucas
Barcelona SC
AucasBarcelona SC11
D03/09/2026
Universidad CatolicaAucas
30/08/2026Universidad CatolicaAucas11
DAucasLibertad10
W27/08/2026LDU de QuitoAucas
LDU de QuitoAucas10
L23/08/2026
Delfin SCAucas
Delfin SCAucas01
W17/08/2026AucasLDU de Quito
AucasLDU de Quito01
L12/08/2026
La UniónAucas
La UniónAucas3141
WLDU de Quito5W2D3L
11/10/2026LDU de QuitoBarcelona SCLDU de QuitoUniversidad CatolicaLDU de Quito
PalmeirasLDU de Quito
Deportivo CuencaPalmeirasLDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
Mushuc Runa SC
LDU de QuitoBarcelona SC21
W21/09/2026LDU de QuitoUniversidad Catolica21
W17/09/2026LDU de QuitoPalmeiras3342
L13/09/2026LDU de QuitoDeportivo Cuenca11
D10/09/2026PalmeirasLDU de Quito10
L05/09/2026
Tecnico UniversitarioLDU de Quito
02/09/2026Tecnico UniversitarioLDU de Quito13
WLDU de QuitoMushuc Runa SC00
D29/08/2026
Guayaquil City FCLDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FCLDU de Quito21
L27/08/2026LDU de QuitoAucas
LDU de QuitoAucas10
W24/08/2026LDU de Quito
Emelec
LDU de QuitoEmelec20
WLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LDLLD |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | WLLDD |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LWWWL |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | WLLDL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | LWLLL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WWDDD |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75:35 | +40 | 78 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47:35 | +12 | 63 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53:31 | +22 | 53 | DWLLW |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 37:29 | +8 | 53 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:37 | -1 | 51 | LDLLD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 38:28 | +10 | 48 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 75:35 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 47:35 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 53:31 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 37:29 | 53 |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 36:37 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 38:28 | 48 |
PromotionRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Liga Pro matches
- LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC 11/10/26
- Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario 16/10/26
- Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC 17/10/26
- Macara vs Independiente del Valle 17/10/26
- Delfin SC vs Manta FC 18/10/26
- Leones del Norte vs Emelec 18/10/26
- Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica 18/10/26
- Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC 19/10/26
About the Aucas vs LDU de Quito forecast
As a derby, this Liga Pro meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Aucas and LDU de Quito in the Liga Pro table
Aucas and LDU de Quito are close in the Liga Pro table, 4th and 5th, with 4 points between them. League goal record so far: Aucas 33-28, LDU de Quito 31-24. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.