Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito Prediction

Palmeiras
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
LDU de Quito
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito·J. Valenzuela 10/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.4 / 10
Value Analysis
59%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.78
SignalSOLIDModel59%SurpriseHighGap+3.8%
Palmeiras Rest
3 days
LDU de Quito Rest
4 days

Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito: result, form and history

Palmeiras beat LDU de Quito 1-0 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 9 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee J. Valenzuela averages 5.5 cards a game, stricter than 98% of the referees we track.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
71%1.26
X
24%4.90
2
5%12.88
Double Chance
1X
95%1.03
X2
29%3.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.75
No
54%1.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.67 + 0.78 = 2.45
Over 1.5
71%1.29
Over 2.5
40%2.00
Over 3.5
21%3.50
Under 1.5
29%3.16
Under 2.5
60%1.78
Under 3.5
79%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 3.6 = 9.6
Over 8.5
59%1.34
Over 9.5
46%1.60
Over 10.5
35%2.02
Under 8.5
41%3.00
Under 9.5
54%2.20
Under 10.5
65%1.72
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.8 = 4.5
Over 3.5
66%-
Over 4.5
47%1.67
Under 3.5
34%-
Under 4.5
53%2.10

Match Events

12'Michael EstradaFoul
22'Fernando CornejoFoul
26'Agustin Giay
32'Yerlin QuinonezFoul
44'Gustavo GómezFoul
45'Yerlin Quinonez INJose Carabali out
51'Fernando Cornejo INJuan rodriguez out
61'Lucas Rodriguez INAlexander Alvarado out
61'Jesús Pretell INSebastián González out
73'Gian Franco AllalaFoul
79'Vitor Roque INHeittor Vinicius da Silva Nunes out
85'Michael Estrada INDeyverson out
90'Bruno FuchsDissent
90+3'Lucas EvangelistaFoul

Lineups

Palmeiras
3-4-2-1Coach: Abel Ferreira
LDU de Quito
3-4-1-2Coach: Gustavo Álvarez
Avg rating7.12
Avg rating6.34
Carlos Miguel6.71C. Miguel
Murilo7.326Murilo
G. Gómez7.315G. Gómez
A. Barboza7.52A. Barboza
A. Giay8.24A. Giay
Marlon Freitas7.217M. Freitas
Lucas Evangelista6.730L. Evangelista
J. Piquerez7.222J. Piquerez
J. Arias7.411J. Arias
J. López7.042J. López
Vitor Roque6.69V. Roque
G. Valle7.11G. Valle
G. Allala5.630G. Allala
Ricardo Ade6.74R. Ade
L. Segovia6.244L. Segovia
M. Weigandt6.057M. Weigandt
F. Cornejo6.420F. Cornejo
J. Pretell6.48J. Pretell
Yerlin Quinonez6.223Y. Quinonez
L. Rodríguez6.17L. Rodríguez
J. Corozo5.813J. Corozo
M. Estrada6.011M. Estrada

Palmeiras Substitutes

3Bruno Fuchs90'
12Khellven
39Heittor79'for Vitor Roque6.5
48Larson
14Marcelo Lomba
7Felipe Anderson
45Erick Machado
18Maurício
32E. Martínez
21Bruno Bertinato
50Luis Felipe
56Arthur

LDU de Quito Substitutes

28J. Cuero
16Deyverson85'for Michael Estrada6.3
22Alexander Domínguez Carabalí
5Sebastían González Baquero61'for Jesús Pretell6.6
3Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo
33Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
31J. Rodríguez51'for Fernando Cornejo6.5
77K. Velasco
15G. Villamíl
26I. Zambrano
10Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel61'for Lucas Rodriguez7.0
67J. Carabalí45'for Yerlin Quinonez6.3

Match Stats

PalmeirasLDU de Quito
60%Ball Possession40%
10Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards4
28Total Shots6
8Shots on Goal1
13Shots off Goal3
21Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots2
12Fouls22
3Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves6
470Total Passes311
391Passes Accurate239
22Free Kicks12

Team Comparison

PalmeirasPalmeiras
LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
1858Elo Rating 1664
1.07Attack 1.58
2.66Defense 1.50
54%Hit Rate 31%
13.6Shots per Game 16.0
4.3Shots on Target 5.6
3.7Corners per Game 6.8
2.7Cards per Game 0.8

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+194 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

PalmeirasPalmeiras
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 75% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

PalmeirasPalmeiras1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito1Wins · 50%
3.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores31/10/2025
PalmeirasLDU de Quito
40
CONMEBOL Libertadores24/10/2025
LDU de QuitoPalmeiras
30

Recent Form

LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito
6W2D2L
05/09/2026
Tecnico UniversitarioLDU de Quito
13
W
02/09/2026
LDU de QuitoMushuc Runa SC
00
D
29/08/2026
Guayaquil City FCLDU de Quito
21
L
27/08/2026
LDU de QuitoAucas
10
W
24/08/2026
LDU de QuitoEmelec
20
W
21/08/2026
LDU de QuitoMirassol
5040
W
17/08/2026
AucasLDU de Quito
01
W
14/08/2026
MirassolLDU de Quito
11
D
08/08/2026
LDU de QuitoIndependiente del Valle
02
L
04/08/2026
LDU de QuitoDelfin SC
21
W

Referee Profile

J. Valenzuela51 matches analysed

5.54Cards per match
5.27Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
27.9Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 98% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Cerro PortenoCerro Porteno64116:2+413WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras632110:5+511WLWDW
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal62046:9-36LLLWL
4JuniorJunior61145:11-64LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Cerro PortenoCerro Porteno66:213
2PalmeirasPalmeiras610:511
3Sporting CristalSporting Cristal66:96
4JuniorJunior65:114

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito64028:5+312WWLLW
2MirassolMirassol64027:4+312LWWWL
3LanusLanus63033:7-49WLLWW
4Always ReadyAlways Ready61057:9-23LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1LDU de QuitoLDU de Quito68:512
2MirassolMirassol67:412
3LanusLanus63:79
4Always ReadyAlways Ready67:93

About the Palmeiras vs LDU de Quito forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.4 out of 10 by our context model. Palmeiras have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Palmeiras and LDU de Quito have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.