Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo Prediction

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito·F. Tello 11/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.53
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+5.9%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.70
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+4.4%
Independiente del Valle Rest
5 days
Flamengo Rest
4 days

Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo: the result in context

Flamengo beat Independiente del Valle 2-0 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 11 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%3.21
X
39%2.90
2
27%2.43
Double Chance
1X
73%1.53
X2
66%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.05
No
54%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.47 + 1.04 = 2.51
Over 1.5
70%1.50
Over 2.5
39%2.56
Over 3.5
20%5.00
Under 1.5
30%2.51
Under 2.5
61%1.49
Under 3.5
80%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 2.7 = 8.1
Over 8.5
54%1.44
Over 9.5
43%1.73
Over 10.5
33%2.17
Under 8.5
46%2.50
Under 9.5
57%1.96
Under 10.5
67%1.62
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.2 = 3.7
Over 3.5
51%1.30
Over 4.5
32%1.67
Under 3.5
49%2.92
Under 4.5
68%2.10

Match Events

45'Carlos González INDjorkaeff Reascos out
50'Erick PulgarFoul
57'Mateo CarabajalFoul
61'Bruno HenriqueAssist: Samuel Lino
72'Giorgian de Arrascaeta INLucas Paquetá out
72'Jorge Carrascal INGonzalo Plata out
75'Emerson Ivan Pata RodrĂ­guez INMatias Mijail Perello out
75'Junior Sornoza INRonald Briones out
75'Léo PereiraAssist: Emerson Royal
85'Aron RodrĂ­guez INEdwin Quintero out
85'Hugo Quintana INYouri Ochoa out
85'Bruno Henrique INPedro out
86'Ayrton Lucas INGuillermo Varela out
90'Samuel Lino INLuiz AraĂşjo out
90+2'Edwin QuinteroFoul

Lineups

Independiente del Valle
4-3-3Coach: JoaquĂ­n Papa
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Coach: Leonardo Jardim
Avg rating6.41
Avg rating6.90
A. Quintana5.81A. Quintana
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla6.713D. Alejandro Romero Padilla
M. Carabajal6.914M. Carabajal
R. Schunke6.95R. Schunke
L. Loor7.019L. Loor
H. Quintana6.028H. Quintana
J. AlcĂ­var6.56J. AlcĂ­var
J. Sornoza6.710J. Sornoza
A. RodrĂ­guez6.617A. RodrĂ­guez
C. González6.59C. González
Emerson Ivan Pata RodrĂ­guez6.331E. Ivan Pata RodrĂ­guez
A. Rossi7.31A. Rossi
Emerson Royal7.022E. Royal
Léo Ortiz7.13L. Ortiz
Léo Pereira7.84L. Pereira
Ayrton Lucas6.86A. Lucas
E. Pulgar6.15E. Pulgar
Jorginho6.621Jorginho
J. Carrascal6.215J. Carrascal
G. de Arrascaeta6.910G. de Arrascaeta
Samuel Lino7.316S. Lino
Bruno Henrique7.727B. Henrique

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

16R. Briones75'for Junior Sornoza6.0
4J. Espinoza
32J. Méndez
8Y. Ochoa85'for Hugo Quintana6.1
11M. PerellĂł75'for Emerson Ivan Pata RodrĂ­guez6.6
56E. Quintero85'for Aron RodrĂ­guez90+2'5.8
99D. Reasco45'for Carlos González6.2
33Andy René Velasco García
23Juan Viacava
15G. Cortéz
70M. Peralta
52Y. Vásquez

Flamengo Substitutes

18N. de la Cruz
19G. Plata72'for Jorge Carrascal6.7
14A. Valencia
8SaĂşl
2G. Varela86'for Ayrton Lucas6.5
44VitĂŁo
9Pedro85'for Bruno Henrique6.5
20Lucas Paquetá72'for Giorgian de Arrascaeta7.0
13Danilo
30J. Freitas
7Luiz AraĂşjo90'for Samuel Lino
42Andrew

Match Stats

Independiente del ValleFlamengo
63%Ball Possession37%
10Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots4
3Shots on Goal2
11Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box4
8Shots Outside Box0
4Blocked Shots1
10Fouls7
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves3
546Total Passes333
492Passes Accurate279
7Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
FlamengoFlamengo
1793Elo Rating 1908
0.86Attack 1.13
2.44Defense 2.72
36%Hit Rate 39%
11.3Shots per Game 13.8
4.3Shots on Target 6.1
5.9Corners per Game 7.0
1.5Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

đź’ŽValue Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
FlamengoFlamengo
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle1Wins · 50%
Draws00%
FlamengoFlamengo1Wins · 50%
4.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores01/10/2020
FlamengoIndependiente del Valle
40
CONMEBOL Libertadores18/09/2020
Independiente del ValleFlamengo
50

Referee Profile

F. Tello243 matches

5.28Cards per match
5.01Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

F. Tello5.29
Other referees5.12

5.29 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.12).

Cards come from 230 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo651014:2+1216WWWDW
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.62316:5+19WLDDW
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin62136:11-57LWLWL
4CuscoCusco60154:12-81LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo614:216
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.66:59
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin66:117
4CuscoCusco64:121

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle641111:6+513WWLWW
2Rosario CentralRosario Central64119:1+813LWWWW
3UCVUCV63037:11-49WLWLL
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion60064:13-90LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle611:613
2Rosario CentralRosario Central69:113
3UCVUCV67:119
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion64:130

About the Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.4 out of 10 by our context model. Independiente del Valle and Flamengo have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.