Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle Prediction

Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague·Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil 19/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.8 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.45
SignalGOODModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+7.0%
Deportes Tolima Rest
10 days
Independiente del Valle Rest
4 days

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle: the result in context

Independiente del Valle beat Deportes Tolima 1-0 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 19 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 3 for Deportes Tolima.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
28%3.04
X
39%3.10
2
33%2.45
Double Chance
1X
67%1.53
X2
72%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.00
No
55%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 0.95 = 2.26
Over 1.5
70%1.45
Over 2.5
37%2.45
Over 3.5
19%4.70
Under 1.5
30%2.62
Under 2.5
63%1.55
Under 3.5
81%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 3.7 = 8.8
Over 8.5
58%1.55
Over 9.5
45%1.97
Over 10.5
34%2.54
Under 8.5
42%2.21
Under 9.5
55%1.74
Under 10.5
66%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.3 = 5.1
Over 3.5
73%1.30
Over 4.5
54%1.63
Under 3.5
27%3.08
Under 4.5
46%2.13

Match Events

11'A. RodriguezAssist: E. Pata
19'B. Rovira INL. Sanchez out
31'Junior HernándezFoul
34'Luis SánchezFoul
46'K. Florez INE. Lopez out
47'Richard SchunkeFoul
52'Mateo CarabajalFoul
70'J. Sornoza INR. Briones out
70'E. Pata INJ. Angulo out
72'J. Hurtado INJ. Valencia out
83'A. Parra Osorio INS. Aguayo out
83'H. Quintana INJ. Mendez out
90'A. Rodriguez INA. Velasco out
90'C. Gonzalez IND. Reasco out

Lineups

Deportes Tolima
4-3-3Coach: Sebastian Oliveros
Independiente del Valle
4-2-3-1Coach: Joaquin Papa
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating7.11
Neto Volpi6.21N. Volpi
J. Mosquera6.333J. Mosquera
J. Angulo7.23J. Angulo
A. AnguloC7.62A. Angulo
J. Hernandez6.620J. Hernandez
H. E. Martinez Yepez7.014H. E. Martinez Yepez
S. Guzman7.332S. Guzman
B. Rovira6.380B. Rovira
J. Hurtado6.97J. Hurtado
A. Parra Osorio6.024A. Parra Osorio
K. Florez6.218K. Florez
A. Quintana8.71A. Quintana
D. A. Romero Padilla7.313D. A. Romero Padilla
M. Carabajal7.214M. Carabajal
R. Schunke7.05R. Schunke
L. Loor6.919L. Loor
H. Quintana6.928H. Quintana
J. Alcivar7.06J. Alcivar
A. Rodriguez7.317A. Rodriguez
J. SornozaC6.610J. Sornoza
E. Pata7.931E. Pata
C. Gonzalez6.59C. Gonzalez

Deportes Tolima Substitutes

23G. J. Balanta Carabali
70M. Ortega
71Y. Osorio
10L. Sanchez19'for B. Rovira34'6.9
4D. Pedrozo
5J. Mera
16V. Reyes
31Y. Moreno
28E. Lopez46'for K. Florez6.5
11J. Valencia72'for J. Hurtado6.2
15S. Aguayo83'for A. Parra Osorio6.7

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

70M. Peralta
15G. Cortez
4J. Espinoza
33A. Velasco90'for A. Rodriguez
16R. Briones70'for J. Sornoza6.9
8Y. Ochoa
32J. Mendez83'for H. Quintana6.7
23J. Viacava
56E. Quintero
99D. Reasco90'for C. Gonzalez
11M. Perello
50J. Angulo70'for E. Pata6.6

Match Stats

Deportes TolimaIndependiente del Valle
68%Ball Possession32%
5Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal5
7Shots Inside Box5
11Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots3
18Fouls6
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves5
659Total Passes298
578Passes Accurate228
88%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
1545Elo Rating 1800
0.62Attack 1.42
1.69Defense 2.64
0%Hit Rate 58%
14.9Shots per Game 11.9
5.4Shots on Target 4.3
7.1Corners per Game 6.5
3.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle0Wins · 0%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores05/05/2022
Deportes TolimaIndependiente del Valle
10
CONMEBOL Libertadores14/04/2022
Independiente del ValleDeportes Tolima
22

Recent Form

Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
4W1D5L
09/08/2026
Deportes TolimaInternacional de Bogota
21
W
05/08/2026
Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin
23
L
01/08/2026
Alianza ValleduparDeportes Tolima
12
W
29/07/2026
QuindioDeportes Tolima
4221
L
26/07/2026
Deportes TolimaJunior
21
W
22/07/2026
Deportes TolimaQuindio
21
W
27/05/2026
UniversitarioDeportes Tolima
00
D
24/05/2026
Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima
31
L
20/05/2026
Coquimbo UnidoDeportes Tolima
30
L
17/05/2026
Deportes TolimaAtletico Nacional
01
L

Referee Profile

Wilton Pereira Sampaio312 matches

5.06Cards per match
4.84Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Wilton Pereira Sampaio5.06
Other referees5.05

5.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 255 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido63128:6+210LWWLW
2Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima62227:6+18DLWWL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional62227:9-28WDLLW
4UniversitarioUniversitario61325:6-16DDLWL

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle641111:6+513WWLWW
2Rosario CentralRosario Central64119:1+813LWWWW
3UCVUCV63037:11-49WLWLL
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion60064:13-90LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle611:613
2Rosario CentralRosario Central69:113
3UCVUCV67:119
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion64:130

About the Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Deportes Tolima and Independiente del Valle have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.