Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.25
SignalSTRONGModel49%SurpriseMediumGap+3.4%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.70
SignalGOODModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+11.4%
Deportes Tolima Rest
3 days
Independiente Medellin Rest
3 days
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin: result, form and history
Independiente Medellin beat Deportes Tolima 3-2 in the Primera A on 5 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
148%1.99
X28%3.20
224%3.88
Double Chance
1X76%1.25
X252%1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%1.85
No47%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 0.89 = 2.13
Over 1.567%1.33
Over 2.534%2.10
Over 3.517%3.75
Under 1.533%3.00
Under 2.566%1.70
Under 3.583%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.5 + 4.1 = 8.6
Over 8.553%1.79
Over 9.538%2.24
Over 10.529%3.05
Under 8.547%1.92
Under 9.562%1.60
Under 10.571%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.9 = 5.5
Over 3.579%-
Over 4.561%1.44
Under 3.521%-
Under 4.539%2.42
Match Events
1'D. Catano
16'J. MontanoAssist: Yony Gonzalez
34'D. Catano INJ. Cordoba out
41'H. E. Martinez Yepez
47'J. Medina
56'S. Guzman(Penalty)
57'J. CordobaAssist: J. Montano
60'J. Varela
63'Yony Gonzalez INA. Simarra out
65'J. Mosquera INK. Florez out
65'H. E. Martinez Yepez INL. Sanchez out
65'A. Parra Osorio INJ. Hernandez out
66'C. Arrieta INE. Valencia out
73'J. Hurtado INJ. Valencia out
73'J. Montano INH. Palacios out
73'A. Martegani INB. Perlaza out
77'S. Guzman
84'J. HernandezAssist: E. Valencia
90+5'B. Perlaza
Lineups
Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin
4-4-2Coach: Luis PereaAvg ratingAvg rating
13M. Ortega
33J. Mosquera
3J. Ángulo
71Y. Osorio
17C. Arrieta
14H. Martinez
C32S. Guzmán
7J. Hurtado
9L. Sandoval
28E. López
24A. Parra
25E. Chaux
26E. Mena
39L. Escorcia
5J. Varela
13J. Mena
11Y. González
C6D. Moreno
21A. Martegani
20J. Edwin Montaño
9J. Medina
10D. CatañoDeportes Tolima Substitutes
18Kelvin Florez65'for J. Mosquera
10Luis Sánchez65'for H. E. Martinez Yepez
8Ever Valencia66'for C. Arrieta
20Junior Hernández65'for A. Parra Osorio84'
11Jader Valencia73'for J. Hurtado
23Gali Balanta
16Victor Reyes
19Santiago Joven
Independiente Medellin Substitutes
70Juan Córdoba34'for D. Catano57'
19Alfonso Simarra63'for Yony Gonzalez
30Hayen Palacios73'for J. Montano
14Baldomero Perlaza73'for A. Martegani90+5'
1Salvador Ichazo
4Kevin Mantilla
31Diego Moreno
34Keiner Klinger
32Carlos Gonzalez
Match Stats
Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin 66%Ball Possession34%
9Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
21Total Shots14
11Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal5
13Shots Inside Box8
8Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots4
7Fouls10
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves8
524Total Passes267
449Passes Accurate194
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Team Comparison
Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin1545Elo Rating 1556
0.62Attack 1.11
1.69Defense 0.71
0%Hit Rate 14%
14.9Shots per Game 12.6
5.4Shots on Target 3.8
7.1Corners per Game 7.1
3.5Cards per Game 3.0
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Deportes Tolima- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Independiente Medellin- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Deportes Tolima2Wins · 20%Draws550%
Independiente Medellin3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%2.6Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
28/01/2026Independiente MedellinDeportes Tolima22
28/09/2025Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin23
16/06/2025Independiente MedellinDeportes Tolima21
05/06/2025Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin13
16/05/2025Independiente MedellinDeportes Tolima01
22/09/2024Independiente MedellinDeportes Tolima01
10/03/2024Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin22
06/03/2024Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin2040
14/09/2023Deportes TolimaIndependiente Medellin11
01/04/2023Independiente MedellinDeportes Tolima11
Recent Form
Deportes Tolima5W1D4L
01/08/2026
Alianza ValleduparDeportes Tolima
QuindioDeportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
Junior
Alianza ValleduparDeportes Tolima12
W29/07/2026QuindioDeportes Tolima4221
L26/07/2026Deportes TolimaJunior21
W22/07/2026Deportes TolimaQuindio
Deportes TolimaQuindio21
W27/05/2026
UniversitarioDeportes Tolima
UniversitarioDeportes Tolima00
D24/05/2026
Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima
Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima31
L20/05/2026
Coquimbo UnidoDeportes Tolima
Coquimbo UnidoDeportes Tolima30
L17/05/2026Deportes TolimaAtletico Nacional
Deportes TolimaAtletico Nacional01
L14/05/2026
Deportivo PastoDeportes Tolima
Deportivo PastoDeportes Tolima02
W10/05/2026Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto
Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto10
WIndependiente Medellin5W3D2L
02/08/2026Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Cali
Vasco DA GamaIndependiente MedellinIndependiente MedellinDeportivo PastoIndependiente MedellinVasco DA Gama
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Cali10
W30/07/2026Vasco DA GamaIndependiente Medellin10
L25/07/2026Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto32
W23/07/2026Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama22
D02/06/2026Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
Independiente MedellinCucuta21
W30/05/2026
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin11
D27/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin10
L21/05/2026
CuscoIndependiente Medellin
CuscoIndependiente Medellin23
W16/05/2026
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin11
D11/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
Independiente MedellinFortaleza FC10
WReferee Profile
6.41Cards per match
5.88Yellow cards per match
0.53Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.41 cards a match, 0.38 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (6.03).
Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | WLWLD |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WDDDL |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DDLWW |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | LWDLL |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | LDWWL |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LLWLW |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | WLLLL |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | LDWDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | LWDDL |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | LLWDL |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLWL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | DLLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 32:13 | +19 | 35 | WWDWW |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | +19 | 34 | WLWLD |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25:16 | +9 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 25:25 | 0 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22:20 | +2 | 25 | LLWLW |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 24 | WDDDL |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21:23 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:23 | -4 | 20 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12:19 | -7 | 17 | DLLLD |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13:28 | -15 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 12 | LWDDL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11:24 | -13 | 12 | WDLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 16 | 32:13 | 35 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 31:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 26:10 | 33 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 16 | 25:16 | 28 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 25:25 | 26 |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 22:20 | 25 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 21:18 | 24 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 19:23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 17:29 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 12:19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 23:27 | 16 |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 13:28 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 17:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 17 | 17:25 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 11:24 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
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About the Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Deportes Tolima and Independiente Medellin in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Deportes Tolima are 6th and Independiente Medellin 11th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Deportes Tolima 27-17, Independiente Medellin 26-24. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.