Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
56%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.70
SignalNEUTRALModel59%SurpriseMediumGap-2.8%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.72
SignalGOODModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+11.9%
Independiente Medellin Rest
2 days
Deportivo Pasto Rest
3 days
Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto: the result in context
Independiente Medellin beat Deportivo Pasto 3-2 in the Primera A on 25 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente Medellin had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Deportivo Pasto.
Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.6 goals a game. Independiente Medellin tend to win more corners, 7.1 a game to 2.6 for Deportivo Pasto.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
156%1.70
X26%3.49
218%5.00
Double Chance
1X82%1.15
X244%2.06
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%1.95
No50%1.76
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.64 + 0.76 = 2.40
Over 1.573%1.33
Over 2.552%2.06
Over 3.529%3.55
Under 1.527%3.10
Under 2.548%1.72
Under 3.571%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.2 = 9
Over 8.551%1.61
Over 9.540%1.97
Over 10.529%2.50
Under 8.549%2.12
Under 9.560%1.71
Under 10.571%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.3 = 4.5
Over 3.560%-
Over 4.539%-
Under 3.540%-
Under 4.561%-
Match Events
4'J. MenaAssist: H. Palacios
7'M. Garavito
30'S. CordobaAssist: H. Goyes
33'J. Varela
35'D. Chavez
36'H. Palacios
44'J. Micolta PiedahitaAssist: D. Chavez
46'M. Garavito INM. S. Jimenez out
46'G. Banguera INE. A. Cabezas Quinonez out
48'E. C. Serje Orozco
59'H. Palacios INJ. Cordoba out
59'H. Loboa INA. Martegani out
64'M. Gil INJ. Mendez out
64'J. Micolta Piedahita INM. Pisano out
65'J. Montano
72'M. S. Jimenez
77'D. Catano INB. Perlaza out
79'B. Perlaza
80'H. Mancilla INJ. Obregon out
90'J. Montano INK. Klinger out
90+3'A. Martegani
Lineups
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto
4-3-3Coach: Jonathan RisuenoAvg ratingAvg rating
1S. Ichazo
26E. Mena
39L. Escorcia
5J. Varela
13J. Mena
16H. Loboa
C6D. Moreno
30H. Palacios
10D. Cataño
20J. Edwin Montaño
9J. Medina
12G. Banguera
33M. Garavito
36J. Quiñones
3J. Ossa
27H. Goyes
15H. Mancilla
C8E. Serje
16M. Gil
18J. Micolta
29S. Córdoba
10D. ChávezIndependiente Medellin Substitutes
70Juan Córdoba59'for H. Palacios
21Agustín Martegani59'for H. Loboa90+3'
14Baldomero Perlaza77'for D. Catano79'
34Keiner Klinger90'for J. Montano
25Eder Chaux
19Alfonso Simarra
4Kevin Mantilla
24Nivaldo Erazo
28Andrés Dávila
Deportivo Pasto Substitutes
1Ederson Cabezas46'for G. Banguera
6Santiago Jiménez46'for M. Garavito72'
17John Méndez64'for M. Gil
32Matías Pisano64'for J. Micolta Piedahita
9Jorge Obregón80'for H. Mancilla
11Andrés Ibargüen
22Yeison Tolosa
19Patrick Preciado
35Frank Martínez
Match Stats
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto 44%Ball Possession56%
4Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards4
8Total Shots12
3Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal6
5Shots Inside Box6
3Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots2
18Fouls12
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves0
346Total Passes428
274Passes Accurate364
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Team Comparison
Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto1556Elo Rating 1458
1.11Attack 0.27
0.71Defense 1.70
14%Hit Rate 27%
12.6Shots per Game 9.2
3.8Shots on Target 1.5
7.1Corners per Game 2.6
3.0Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente Medellin- Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Deportivo Pasto- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.3 vs 0 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente Medellin5Wins · 50%Draws220%
Deportivo Pasto3Wins · 30%
3Wins · 30%1.6Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10
Previous meetings
18/01/2026Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin10
19/08/2025Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin12
04/03/2025Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto10
09/09/2024Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin10
01/03/2024Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto10
26/10/2023Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin00
18/08/2023Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin31
10/08/2023Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto31
14/05/2023Independiente MedellinDeportivo Pasto10
01/12/2022Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin00
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin4W3D3L
23/07/2026Independiente Medellin
Vasco DA Gama
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama22
D02/06/2026Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
Independiente MedellinCucuta21
W30/05/2026
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin11
D27/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin10
L21/05/2026
CuscoIndependiente Medellin
CuscoIndependiente Medellin23
W16/05/2026
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin11
D11/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
Independiente MedellinFortaleza FC10
W08/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Flamengo
Independiente MedellinFlamengo03
L03/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Águilas Doradas
Independiente MedellinÁguilas Doradas12
L01/05/2026Independiente MedellinCusco
Independiente MedellinCusco10
WDeportivo Pasto3W1D6L
22/07/2026Deportivo Pasto
Bogota FC
Deportivo PastoBogota FC01
L14/05/2026Deportivo Pasto
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo PastoDeportes Tolima02
L10/05/2026Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto
Deportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto10
L04/05/2026
JuniorDeportivo Pasto
JuniorDeportivo Pasto43
L24/04/2026Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
Deportivo PastoSanta Fe12
L17/04/2026
JaguaresDeportivo Pasto
JaguaresDeportivo Pasto23
W11/04/2026Deportivo PastoDeportes Tolima
Deportivo PastoDeportes Tolima10
W01/04/2026
Alianza ValleduparDeportivo Pasto
Alianza ValleduparDeportivo Pasto00
D30/03/2026Deportivo Pasto
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo PastoAtletico Nacional12
L25/03/2026Fortaleza FCDeportivo Pasto
Fortaleza FCDeportivo Pasto12
WReferee Profile
6.43Cards per match
5.91Yellow cards per match
0.53Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
6.43 cards a match, 0.39 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (6.04).
Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | WLWLD |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | WDDDL |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | WLDWW |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DDLWW |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | LWDLL |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | LDWWL |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LLWLW |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | LWLLL |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | LDWDD |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | LLWDL |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLWL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | LDLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:14 | +19 | 36 | WWWDW |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31:12 | +19 | 34 | WLWLD |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 26:17 | +9 | 29 | LWLLL |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23:17 | +6 | 28 | DDLWW |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 25:25 | 0 | 26 | WWLDW |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22:20 | +2 | 25 | LLWLW |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 24 | WDDDL |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21:20 | +1 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 11 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21:23 | -2 | 20 | LWDLL |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19:23 | -4 | 20 | LDWDD |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 13:22 | -9 | 17 | LDLLL |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 16 | WWLWW |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13:28 | -15 | 16 | LWLWL |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 13 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 12 | LWDDL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11:24 | -13 | 12 | WDLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 17 | 33:14 | 36 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 31:12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 26:10 | 33 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 17 | 26:17 | 29 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 16 | 23:17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 25:25 | 26 |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 17 | 22:20 | 25 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 21:18 | 24 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 17 | 21:20 | 23 |
| 11 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 21:23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 19:23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 17:29 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 17 | 13:22 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 23:27 | 16 |
| 17 | Chico | 17 | 13:28 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 16 | 17:29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 17 | 17:25 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 11:24 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera A matches
- Atletico Nacional vs Junior 09/06/26
- Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira 25/07/26
- Deportivo Cali vs Jaguares 25/07/26
- Millonarios vs Bucaramanga 26/07/26
- Deportes Tolima vs Junior 26/07/26
- Internacional de Bogota vs America de Cali 26/07/26
- Águilas Doradas vs Santa Fe 26/07/26
- Alianza Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC 27/07/26
About the Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto forecast
The forecasts for this Primera A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente Medellin and Deportivo Pasto in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Deportivo Pasto are 3rd and Independiente Medellin 11th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Independiente Medellin 26-24, Deportivo Pasto 29-25. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.