Independiente Medellin vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction
World · Round of 32CupKnockout
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel38%SurpriseMediumGap+1.3%
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Over 1.5
1.53
SignalHIGHModel37%SurpriseMediumGap+16.0%
Independiente Medellin Rest
50 days
Vasco DA Gama Rest
5 days
Independiente Medellin vs Vasco DA Gama: result, form and history
Independiente Medellin and Vasco DA Gama drew 2-2 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 22 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
139%2.28
X35%3.15
226%3.20
Double Chance
1X74%1.33
X261%1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes43%1.84
No57%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 0.97 = 2.19
Over 1.568%1.36
Over 2.536%2.20
Over 3.517%4.00
Under 1.532%3.00
Under 2.564%1.67
Under 3.583%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.9 = 9.1
Over 8.555%1.64
Over 9.544%1.99
Over 10.533%2.54
Under 8.545%2.12
Under 9.556%1.71
Under 10.567%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 3 = 5.6
Over 3.581%1.38
Over 4.565%1.40
Under 3.519%2.57
Under 4.535%2.58
Match Events
37'Halam LoboaPersistent fouling
45+4'John Edwin MontañoAssist: Yony González
46'Joaquin VarelaOG
58'Cauan BarrosFoul
59'Adson INMarino Hinestroza out
59'Nuno Moreira INJohan Rojas out
70'Yony González INJeison Medina out
70'Halam Loboa INDaniel Cataño out
70'Brenner INClaudio Spinelli out
71'Puma Rodríguez INPaulo Henrique out
72'John Edwin MontañoAssist: Jeison Medina
80'Jhan Mena INLuis Escorcia out
80'Andrés Gómez INRamon Rique out
84'Agustín Martegani INDiego Moreno out
84'Juan Córdoba INHayen Palacios out
86'Claudio SpinelliAssist: Cuiabano
Lineups
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama
Coach: Pedro EmanuelIndependiente Medellin Starting XI
25Eder Chaux
26Esneyder Mena
4Kevin Mantilla
5Joaquin Varela46'
13Jhan Mena80'replaced by Luis Escorcia
16Halam Loboa37'70'replaced by Daniel Cataño
6Didier MorenoC
70Juan Córdoba84'replaced by Hayen Palacios
21Agustín Martegani84'replaced by Diego Moreno
20John Edwin Montaño45+4'72'
11Yony González70'replaced by Jeison Medina
Avg rating
Vasco DA Gama Starting XI
1Léo Jardim
2Puma Rodríguez71'replaced by Paulo Henrique
46Carlos Cuesta
30Robert Renan
66Cuiabano
88Cauan Barros58'
23Thiago MendesC
28Adson59'replaced by Marino Hinestroza
17Nuno Moreira59'replaced by Johan Rojas
11Andrés Gómez80'replaced by Ramon Rique
20Brenner70'replaced by Claudio Spinelli
Avg rating
Independiente Medellin Substitutes
10Daniel Cataño70'for Halam Loboa
9Jeison Medina70'for Yony González
39Luis Escorcia80'for Jhan Mena
30Hayen Palacios84'for Juan Córdoba
31Diego Moreno84'for Agustín Martegani
1Salvador Ichazo
12Simón Romero
19Alfonso Simarra
14Baldomero Perlaza
34Keiner Klinger
17Geronimo Mancilla
Vasco DA Gama Substitutes
18Marino Hinestroza59'for Adson
10Johan Rojas59'for Nuno Moreira
77Claudio Spinelli70'for Brenner86'
96Paulo Henrique71'for Puma Rodríguez
83Ramon Rique80'for Andrés Gómez
13Daniel Fuzato
6Lucas Piton
43Lucas Freitas
3Tchê Tchê
98JP
8Jair
7David
Match Stats
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama 47%Ball Possession53%
3Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards1
12Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal4
2Shots off Goal7
7Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box7
7Blocked Shots2
11Fouls10
3Goalkeeper Saves1
416Total Passes448
351Passes Accurate388
84%Pass Accuracy87%
Team Comparison
Independiente MedellinVasco DA Gama1589Elo Rating 1731
1.13Attack 0.75
1.13Defense 1.82
19%Hit Rate 34%
12.6Shots per Game 13.2
3.9Shots on Target 3.3
4.3Corners per Game 5.4
3.2Cards per Game 1.6
AI Insights
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente Medellin- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Vasco DA Gama- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin5W2D3L
02/06/2026Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
Independiente MedellinCucuta21
W30/05/2026
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin
Leones FCIndependiente Medellin11
D27/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin10
L21/05/2026
CuscoIndependiente Medellin
CuscoIndependiente Medellin23
W16/05/2026
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin
OrsomarsoIndependiente Medellin11
D11/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
Independiente MedellinFortaleza FC10
W08/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Flamengo
Independiente MedellinFlamengo03
L03/05/2026Independiente Medellin
Águilas Doradas
Independiente MedellinÁguilas Doradas12
L01/05/2026Independiente MedellinCusco
Independiente MedellinCusco10
W26/04/2026Independiente MedellinFortaleza FC
Independiente MedellinFortaleza FC10
WVasco DA Gama3W2D5L
17/07/2026
VitoriaVasco DA Gama
VitoriaVasco DA Gama10
L31/05/2026Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
Vasco DA GamaAtletico-MG01
L28/05/2026Vasco DA Gama
Barracas Central
Vasco DA GamaBarracas Central30
W25/05/2026Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
Vasco DA GamaRB Bragantino03
L21/05/2026
OlimpiaVasco DA Gama
OlimpiaVasco DA Gama31
L16/05/2026
InternacionalVasco DA Gama
InternacionalVasco DA Gama41
L14/05/2026Vasco DA Gama
Paysandu
Vasco DA GamaPaysandu22
D11/05/2026Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA GamaAtletico Paranaense10
W07/05/2026
A. ItalianoVasco DA Gama
A. ItalianoVasco DA Gama12
W03/05/2026FlamengoVasco DA Gama
FlamengoVasco DA Gama22
DReferee Profile
5.66Cards per match
5.26Yellow cards per match
0.41Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.66 cards a match, 0.32 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.34).
Cards come from 167 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsBracket
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Sao PauloAtletico-MG
Atletico Torque
MacaraOlimpia
Botafogo
River PlateDeportivo RecoletaSao PauloAtletico-MGAtletico TorqueMacaraOlimpiaBotafogoRiver PlateLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:6 | +4 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Vasco DA Gama | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | +4 | 10 | WLWWL |
| 3 | A. Italiano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 7 | LWLDW |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2:8 | -6 | 3 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 6 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 2 | Vasco DA Gama | 6 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 3 | A. Italiano | 6 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 6 | 2:8 | 3 |
Promotion
Explore more predictions
This match
- Independiente Medellin Predictions
- Vasco DA Gama Predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Standings
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Stats 2026
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana top scorers
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Knockout Rounds
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana matches
About the Independiente Medellin vs Vasco DA Gama forecast
As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About CONMEBOL Sudamericana
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
Independiente Medellin and Vasco DA Gama have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.