Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca Prediction
Ecuador · Regular Season - 23
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.28
SignalSTRONGModel74%SurpriseMediumGap+6.8%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.66
SignalGOODModel60%SurpriseMediumGap+11.0%
Independiente del Valle Rest
3 days
Deportivo Cuenca Rest
5 days
Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca: result, form and history
Independiente del Valle beat Deportivo Cuenca 1-0 in the Liga Pro on 2 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Deportivo Cuenca.
Independiente del Valle have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.7 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
185%1.28
X12%5.05
23%9.10
Double Chance
1X97%1.05
X215%3.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes47%2.10
No53%1.63
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.69 + 0.65 = 3.34
Over 1.584%1.20
Over 2.566%1.66
Over 3.546%2.63
Under 1.516%4.00
Under 2.534%2.10
Under 3.554%1.42
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
20'A. RodriguezUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'D. Gonzalez INJ. Ordonez out
53'J. AnguloAssist: A. Rodriguez
64'L. Mancinelli INY. H. Erique Villigua out
67'J. Angulo IND. Reasco out
67'E. Pata INM. Perello out
77'M. MaccariUnsportsmanlike conduct
78'H. Quintana INR. Briones out
78'J. Sornoza IND. Guagua out
78'M. Diaz INJ. Mejia out
83'A. Lopez ING. Rivero out
86'P. BoolsenSerious foul
87'A. Rodriguez INE. Quintero out
Lineups
Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca
5-4-1Coach: Fortunato Celico Jorge CesarAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Quintana
13D. Romero
14M. Carabajal
5R. Schunke
19L. Loor
6J. Alcivar
17A. Rodríguez
28H. Quintana
C10J. Sornoza
31E. Pata
50J. Angulo
1F. Ferrero
25M. Andrés López
23E. Guevara
28P. Boolsen
18M. Piedra
37C. Arboleda
C7L. Mancinelli
30M. Maccari
8E. Vega
49D. González
19M. DiazIndependiente del Valle Substitutes
70Miguel Peralta
33Andy Velasco
4Jhon Espinoza
20Aníbal Gómez
15Gustavo Cortez
16Ronald Briones78'for H. Quintana
32Jhegson Méndez
11Matías Perello67'for E. Pata
55Darwin Guagua
52Yandri Vasquez
99Djorkaeff Reasco67'for J. Angulo
56Edwin Quintero87'for A. Rodriguez
Deportivo Cuenca Substitutes
43Jorge Ordóñez46'for D. Gonzalez
53Yeltzin Erique64'for L. Mancinelli
12Ethan Minda
2Ignacio Mosquera
3Gian Nardelli
16Jeremy Mejia
5David Noboa
15Mathías Solís
11Germán Rivero83'for A. Lopez
Match Stats
Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca 67%Ball Possession33%
7Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
18Total Shots2
6Shots on Goal0
8Shots off Goal1
7Shots Inside Box0
11Shots Outside Box2
4Blocked Shots1
10Fouls5
3Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves5
597Total Passes317
553Passes Accurate257
93%Pass Accuracy81%
Team Comparison
Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca1793Elo Rating 1488
0.86Attack 1.30
2.44Defense 2.46
36%Hit Rate 50%
11.3Shots per Game 10.7
4.3Shots on Target 4.1
5.9Corners per Game 5.8
1.5Cards per Game 1.3
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+305 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.33 goals
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Independiente del Valle- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
Deportivo Cuenca- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.5 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Independiente del Valle8Wins · 80%Draws110%
Deportivo Cuenca1Wins · 10%
1Wins · 10%2.7Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
12/04/2026Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle23
28/07/2025Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle03
06/04/2025Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca40
25/10/2024Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle02
05/05/2024Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca10
28/10/2023Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca20
20/05/2023Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle12
03/09/2022Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle21
20/04/2022Independiente del ValleDeportivo Cuenca20
28/11/2021Deportivo CuencaIndependiente del Valle11
Recent Form
Independiente del Valle10W0D0L
30/07/2026Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
26/07/2026Independiente del ValleManta FC10
W
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle23
W22/07/2026Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario30
W20/07/2026Independiente del Valle
Emelec
16/07/2026Independiente del ValleEmelec61
W
AucasIndependiente del Valle03
W11/07/2026
Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle
09/07/2026Mushuc Runa SCIndependiente del Valle14
W
Santo DomingoIndependiente del Valle02
W04/07/2026Independiente del ValleManta FC40
W31/05/2026
Guayaquil City FCIndependiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FCIndependiente del Valle24
W28/05/2026Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
Independiente del ValleRosario Central10
WDeportivo Cuenca2W2D6L
28/07/2026Deportivo CuencaEmelec
MacaraDeportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca
Universidad CatolicaDeportivo CuencaAucas
Deportivo CuencaEmelec21
W22/07/2026MacaraDeportivo Cuenca30
L18/07/2026Deportivo CuencaUniversidad Catolica02
L16/07/2026
Leones del NorteDeportivo Cuenca
12/07/2026Leones del NorteDeportivo Cuenca11
DDeportivo CuencaAucas01
L05/07/2026
Barcelona SCDeportivo Cuenca
Barcelona SCDeportivo Cuenca20
L02/06/2026
La UniónDeportivo Cuenca
La UniónDeportivo Cuenca8070
L31/05/2026Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
Deportivo CuencaDelfin SC10
W27/05/2026
SantosDeportivo Cuenca
SantosDeportivo Cuenca30
L24/05/2026Deportivo Cuenca
LDU de Quito
Deportivo CuencaLDU de Quito11
DReferee Profile
5.42Cards per match
5.03Yellow cards per match
0.39Red cards per match
24.8Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.42 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.23).
Cards come from 141 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Liga Pro: Regular season
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | +40 | 74 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | +24 | 51 | DWLLW |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | +8 | 51 | WWWWW |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | +5 | 50 | LDLLD |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | +7 | 46 | LDWWD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | +7 | 44 | WLLDD |
| 7 |  Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 | LWWWL |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 | WLLDL |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 | WLWDW |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 | LWLLL |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 | WWDDD |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17:42 | 21 |
Liga Pro: Championship Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 75:35 | +40 | 78 | DLWWW |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 47:35 | +12 | 63 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53:31 | +22 | 53 | DWLLW |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 37:29 | +8 | 53 | LDWWD |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36:37 | -1 | 51 | LDLLD |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 38:28 | +10 | 48 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 33 | 75:35 | 78 |
| 2 | Macara | 34 | 47:35 | 63 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 34 | 53:31 | 53 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 34 | 37:29 | 53 |
| 5 | Aucas | 34 | 36:37 | 51 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 33 | 38:28 | 48 |
Liga Pro: Relegation Group
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 30:39 | -9 | 44 | WWDDD |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 39:46 | -7 | 40 | LDLDL |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 42:50 | -8 | 38 | WDDLL |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 34 | 11 | 3 | 20 | 33:46 | -13 | 36 | WLLDW |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 27:40 | -13 | 35 | LWWDD |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 22:49 | -27 | 27 | LLWWD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 30:39 | 44 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 34 | 39:46 | 40 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 42:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 34 | 33:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 34 | 27:40 | 35 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 22:49 | 27 |
PromotionRelegation
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About the Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Independiente del Valle and Deportivo Cuenca in the Liga Pro table
In the Liga Pro table, Independiente del Valle are 1st and Deportivo Cuenca 12th, 38 points apart. League goal record so far: Independiente del Valle 73-33, Deportivo Cuenca 25-37. The full standings are on the Liga Pro Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.