Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction
Brazil · Regular Season - 25
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.81
SignalNEUTRALModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Flamengo Rest
7 days
Botafogo Rest
5 days
Flamengo vs Botafogo: the result in context
Match Forecasts
Match Result
165%1.40
X21%4.60
214%7.00
Double Chance
1X86%1.09
X235%2.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.81
No44%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.74 + 0.94 = 2.68
Over 1.576%1.20
Over 2.556%1.63
Over 3.533%2.60
Under 1.524%4.40
Under 2.544%2.25
Under 3.567%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.5 + 4.1 = 10.7
Over 8.571%1.34
Over 9.565%1.57
Over 10.547%2.00
Under 8.529%3.00
Under 9.535%2.27
Under 10.553%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1 + 2.6 = 3.5
Over 3.547%-
Over 4.524%-
Under 3.553%-
Under 4.576%-
Match Events
9'Goal Disallowed - handballArthur Cabral
13'Samuel LinoAssist: Jorginho
21'Alex Telles INL. Monzon out
46'A. Montoro INDanilo Pereira out
57'Luiz Araujo INLucas Paqueta out
66'Edenilson INC. Medina out
69'Goal Disallowed - offsideLucas Paqueta
75'G. de Arrascaeta INJ. Carrascal out
77'Arthur Cabral INL. M. Villalba Jaume out
77'Vitinho INJunior Santos out
83'MarcalUnsportsmanlike conduct
86'Samuel LinoAssist: J. Carrascal
88'Pedro INEverton out
89'G. JustinoRoughing
90'J. CarrascalAssist: Everton
Lineups
FlamengoBotafogo
3-4-2-1Coach: Franclim CarvalhoAvg ratingAvg rating
1A. Rossi
22E. Royal
3L. Ortiz
4L. Pereira
6A. Lucas
5E. Pulgar
21Jorginho
7L. Araújo
C10G. de Arrascaeta
16S. Lino
9P. Guilherme
12G. Batista
5N. Ferraresi
34G. Justino
21Marçal
2Vitinho
75Huguinho
8D. Santos
C13A. Telles
88Edenilson
10Á. Montoro
19A. CabralFlamengo Substitutes
20Lucas Paquetá57'for Luiz Araujo
49Dyogo Alves
42Andrew
61João Victor
77Johnny Goes
2Guillermo Varela
13Danilo
15Jorge Carrascal75'for G. de Arrascaeta90'
99Lorran
52Evertton Araujo
11Everton88'for Pedro
39Josmar
Botafogo Substitutes
33Lucas Monzón21'for Alex Telles
90Danilo46'for A. Montoro
6Cristian Medina66'for Edenilson
62Cléber Lucas
17Warleson
42Kadu Santos
59Kauan Toledo
77Lucas Villalba77'for Arthur Cabral
91Domingos Andrade
25Allan
37Kadir Barría
7Júnior Santos77'for Vitinho
Match Stats
FlamengoBotafogo 63%Ball Possession37%
5Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box9
7Shots Outside Box5
6Blocked Shots5
8Fouls9
3Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves3
653Total Passes366
588Passes Accurate303
90%Pass Accuracy83%
Team Comparison
FlamengoBotafogo1908Elo Rating 1620
1.13Attack 0.59
2.72Defense 1.38
39%Hit Rate 23%
13.8Shots per Game 14.6
6.1Shots on Target 5.6
7.0Corners per Game 5.9
2.2Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+287 Elo
🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Flamengo- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Botafogo- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Flamengo7Wins · 70%Draws110%
Botafogo2Wins · 20%
2Wins · 20%2.5Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10
Previous meetings
15/03/2026BotafogoFlamengo03
15/02/2026BotafogoFlamengo12
16/10/2025BotafogoFlamengo03
18/05/2025FlamengoBotafogo00
13/02/2025FlamengoBotafogo10
02/02/2025BotafogoFlamengo13
18/08/2024BotafogoFlamengo41
28/04/2024FlamengoBotafogo02
08/02/2024FlamengoBotafogo10
03/09/2023BotafogoFlamengo12
Recent Form
Flamengo6W3D1L
23/08/2026
CruzeiroFlamengoFlamengoCruzeiroCruzeiroFlamengoFlamengo
Vitoria
InternacionalFlamengoFlamengo
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-scFlamengo
CruzeiroFlamengo21
L20/08/2026FlamengoCruzeiro21
W16/08/2026
MirassolFlamengo
13/08/2026MirassolFlamengo15
WCruzeiroFlamengo11
D10/08/2026FlamengoVitoria20
W30/07/2026InternacionalFlamengo11
D26/07/2026FlamengoSao Paulo11
D23/07/2026Chapecoense-scFlamengo04
W18/07/2026Flamengo
Olimpia
FlamengoOlimpia42
W11/07/2026
BenficaFlamengo
BenficaFlamengo12
WBotafogo4W2D4L
25/08/2026Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense
CiencianoBotafogoBotafogo
FluminenseCruzeiroBotafogoBotafogoVitoriaBotafogo
Santos
BotafogoAtletico Paranaense23
L21/08/2026BotafogoCienciano
BotafogoCienciano10
W16/08/2026VitoriaBotafogo
14/08/2026VitoriaBotafogo10
LCiencianoBotafogo61
L09/08/2026BotafogoFluminense11
D26/07/2026CruzeiroBotafogo01
W24/07/2026BotafogoVitoria00
D17/07/2026BotafogoSantos21
W30/05/2026
BahiaBotafogo
BahiaBotafogo21
L28/05/2026
Caracas FCBotafogo
Caracas FCBotafogo13
WReferee Profile
5.16Cards per match
4.86Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
29.1Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.16 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.27).
Cards come from 94 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64:27 | +37 | 70 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 44:38 | +6 | 50 | LWWDW |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 | LDWDL |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38:50 | -12 | 39 | LLDLL |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 | DDLWL |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 | WLDWL |
| 17 |  Gremio | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 35:44 | -9 | 34 | WLDDD |
| 18 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 32 | 64:27 | 70 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 32 | 56:22 | 69 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 51:46 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 50:38 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 50:41 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 32 | 44:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 45:40 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 49:47 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 37:36 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 39:38 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 44:51 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 38:50 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 39:45 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 35:46 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 37:45 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 36:40 | 35 |
| 17 | Gremio | 32 | 35:44 | 34 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 32 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 34:50 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 32:63 | 21 |
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About the Flamengo vs Botafogo forecast
As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Flamengo and Botafogo in the Serie A table
In the Serie A table, Flamengo are 1st and Botafogo 11th, 31 points apart. League goal record so far: Flamengo 64-27, Botafogo 44-51. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.