Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction

Botafogo
1-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Fluminense
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro·Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil 09/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.39
SignalGOODModel45%SurpriseMediumGap-0.1%
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.56
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+12.5%
Botafogo Rest
13 days
Fluminense Rest
2 days

Botafogo vs Fluminense: result, form and history

Botafogo and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 9 Aug 2026. Botafogo had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against none for Fluminense.

Botafogo have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.0 goals a game. Botafogo tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 3.9 for Fluminense.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.41
X
28%3.19
2
28%2.98
Double Chance
1X
72%1.39
X2
56%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.70
No
47%2.04
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 1.06 = 2.35
Over 1.5
71%1.29
Over 2.5
48%1.96
Over 3.5
26%3.35
Under 1.5
29%3.40
Under 2.5
52%1.85
Under 3.5
74%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.3 = 9.1
Over 8.5
53%1.50
Over 9.5
40%1.80
Over 10.5
29%2.22
Under 8.5
47%2.44
Under 9.5
60%1.91
Under 10.5
71%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.3 = 4.8
Over 3.5
69%-
Over 4.5
51%1.31
Under 3.5
31%-
Under 4.5
49%2.88

Match Events

44'Alex Telles
54'Ignacio
58'IgnacioAssist: K. Serna
59'Kauan Toledo INJ. Barrera out
59'L. M. Villalba Jaume INMatheus Martins out
68'N. FerraresiUnsportsmanlike conduct
70'K. Serna INA. Canobbio out
70'PH Ganso INHercules out
70'Alex Telles INPaulinho out
76'NonatoFoul
77'Samuel XavierUnsportsmanlike conduct
79'Y. Soteldo INL. Acosta out
79'Nonato INJ. Savarino out
85'R. Castillo INHulk out
85'J. Barrera INL. E. Jales do Nascimento out
85'A. Montoro INDanilo Pereira out
90+2'G. Justino
90+4'Marcal
90+5'Marcal

Lineups

Botafogo
4-2-3-1Coach: Franclim Carvalho
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis
Avg rating6.83
Avg rating6.87
Warleson6.917Warleson
Vitinho6.72Vitinho
Gabriel Justino6.734G. Justino
Nahuel Ferraresi7.05N. Ferraresi
Alex TellesC7.313A. Telles
Cristian Medina6.56C. Medina
Danilo Santos7.28D. Santos
Lucas Villalba6.277L. Villalba
Álvaro Montoro8.510Á. Montoro
Kauan Toledo6.959K. Toledo
Arthur Cabral6.319A. Cabral
Fábio7.31Fábio
Samuel XavierC7.22S. Xavier
Ignácio8.64Ignácio
Jemmes7.244Jemmes
Renê7.26Renê
Otávio6.994Otávio
Nonato5.916Nonato
Yeferson Soteldo6.930Y. Soteldo
Ganso6.610Ganso
Kevin Serna7.290K. Serna
Rodrigo Castillo6.319R. Castillo

Botafogo Substitutes

14Jordan Barrera59'for Kauan Toledo85'for L. E. Jales do Nascimento6.5
11Matheus Martins59'for L. M. Villalba Jaume6.9
29Paulinho70'for Alex Telles7.2
9Danilo85'for A. Montoro6.3
79Lucas Emanuel85'replaced by J. Barrera6.2
12Gabriel Batista
33Lucas Monzón
4Mateo Ponte
21Marçal90+4'90+5'
88Edenilson
91Domingos Andrade
37Kadir Barría

Fluminense Substitutes

35Hércules70'for PH Ganso6.6
17Agustín Canobbio70'for K. Serna6.9
32Luciano Acosta79'for Y. Soteldo6.3
11Jefferson Savarino79'for Nonato6.3
7Hulk85'for R. Castillo6.6
27Marcelo Pitaluga
23Guga
13Guilherme Arana
21Igor Rabello
8Martinelli
28Riquelme Felipe
14Germán Cano

Match Stats

BotafogoFluminense
41%Ball Possession59%
7Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
20Total Shots14
7Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal5
9Shots Inside Box11
11Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots5
16Fouls19
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves6
324Total Passes471
273Passes Accurate409
84%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

BotafogoBotafogo
FluminenseFluminense
1620Elo Rating 1742
0.59Attack 1.26
1.38Defense 1.99
23%Hit Rate 41%
14.6Shots per Game 10.0
5.6Shots on Target 3.5
5.9Corners per Game 3.9
1.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

🔥Derby Match
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BotafogoBotafogo
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

BotafogoBotafogo7Wins · 70%
Draws00%
FluminenseFluminense3Wins · 30%
2.0Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored2 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A12/02/2026
FluminenseBotafogo
10
Carioca - 102/02/2026
BotafogoFluminense
01
Serie A28/09/2025
FluminenseBotafogo
20
Serie A27/04/2025
BotafogoFluminense
20
Carioca - 130/01/2025
BotafogoFluminense
21
Serie A21/09/2024
FluminenseBotafogo
01
Serie A12/06/2024
BotafogoFluminense
10
Carioca - 103/03/2024
FluminenseBotafogo
24
Serie A08/10/2023
FluminenseBotafogo
02
Serie A20/05/2023
BotafogoFluminense
10

Recent Form

BotafogoBotafogo
5W3D2L
26/07/2026
CruzeiroBotafogo
01
W
24/07/2026
BotafogoVitoria
00
D
17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
W
30/05/2026
BahiaBotafogo
21
L
28/05/2026
Caracas FCBotafogo
13
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D
21/05/2026
Independiente PetroleroBotafogo
03
W
17/05/2026
BotafogoCorinthians
31
W
14/05/2026
Chapecoense-scBotafogo
20
L
10/05/2026
Atletico-MGBotafogo
11
D
FluminenseFluminense
3W5D2L
06/08/2026
FluminenseVasco DA Gama
13
L
01/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaFluminense
00
D
30/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
00
D
26/07/2026
GremioFluminense
11
D
18/07/2026
FluminenseRB Bragantino
11
D
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
W
01/06/2026
CruzeiroFluminense
11
D
28/05/2026
FluminenseDeportivo La Guaira
31
W
24/05/2026
MirassolFluminense
10
L
20/05/2026
FluminenseBolívar
21
W

Referee Profile

Bruno Arleu de Araujo242 matches

5.65Cards per match
5.43Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
28.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Bruno Arleu de Araujo5.65
Other referees5.17

5.65 cards a match, 0.48 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.17).

Cards come from 199 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWWLW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
PromotionRelegation

About the Botafogo vs Fluminense forecast

As a derby, this Serie A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Botafogo and Fluminense in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Fluminense are 5th and Botafogo 11th, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Botafogo 45-53, Fluminense 52-42. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.