Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Serie ABrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 22
Gremio
2-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre·Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil 08/08/2026
GremioGremio
2-1
Finished
Sao PauloSao Paulo

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.35
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap+0.1%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.80
SignalSOLIDModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+10.5%
Gremio Rest
2 days
Sao Paulo Rest
12 days

Gremio vs Sao Paulo: the result in context

Gremio beat Sao Paulo 2-1 in the Serie A on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
46%2.30
X
28%3.21
2
26%3.15
Double Chance
1X
74%1.35
X2
54%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.82
No
47%1.90
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.3 + 1.05 = 2.35
Over 1.5
71%1.35
Over 2.5
48%2.10
Over 3.5
25%3.70
Under 1.5
29%3.10
Under 2.5
52%1.72
Under 3.5
75%1.25
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.2 = 9.9
Over 8.5
60%1.48
Over 9.5
48%1.85
Over 10.5
37%2.29
Under 8.5
40%2.41
Under 9.5
52%1.87
Under 10.5
63%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 2.4 = 4.8
Over 3.5
69%1.27
Over 4.5
51%1.47
Under 3.5
31%3.50
Under 4.5
49%2.38

Match Events

45'Marcos AntonioAssist: Luciano
45+5'M. VillasantiUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'J. Cabral INF. Amuzu out
48'WallaceAssist: Carlos Vinicius
54'J. Nardoni INDodi out
70'Danielzinho IND. Bobadilla out
71'Ferreira INCauly out
75'LucianoUnsportsmanlike conduct
77'Jonathan Calleri INAndre Silva out
78'Carlos Vinicius INM. Braithwaite out
81'Diego CaitoTripping
86'C. Pavon
89'Wendell INVictor Sa out
89'Pablo Maia ING. Santana out
90+1'MarlonUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+1'M. Villasanti INWalter Kannemann out
90+1'C. Pavon INL. Perez out
90+2'Andre SilvaUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'Walter KannemannUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'Robert ArboledaUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Gremio
4-1-4-1Coach: Luis Castro
Sao Paulo
4-2-3-1Coach: Junior Dorival
Avg rating7.11
Avg rating6.57
Weverton7.91Weverton
Diego Caito6.727D. Caito
Gustavo Martins6.96G. Martins
Wallace8.282Wallace
Marlon6.223Marlon
E. Noriega7.219E. Noriega
C. Pavon8.27C. Pavon
M. VillasantiC7.020M. Villasanti
J. Nardoni6.55J. Nardoni
J. Cabral6.777J. Cabral
Carlos Vinicius7.995C. Vinicius
Rafael7.023Rafael
Lucas Ramon19L. Ramon
Robert Arboleda6.35R. Arboleda
Luis Osorio6.054L. Osorio
Wendell6.318Wendell
Danielzinho6.394Danielzinho
Pablo Maia6.229P. Maia
Marcos Antonio7.78M. Antonio
Luciano7.010Luciano
Ferreira7.511Ferreira
Jonathan CalleriC6.39J. Calleri

Gremio Substitutes

12Gabriel Grando
22M. Braithwaite78'for Carlos Vinicius6.7
14Marcos Rocha
17Dodi54'for J. Nardoni6.5
9F. Amuzu46'for J. Cabral6.9
99J. Enamorado
38Caio Paulista
30Matheus Nascimento
4Walter Kannemann90+1'for M. Villasanti90+5'
3Wagner Leonardo
33L. Perez90+1'for C. Pavon
37Gabriel Mec

Sao Paulo Substitutes

31Carlos Coronel
20Buta
22D. Duarte
80Cauly71'for Ferreira6.3
27Victor Sa89'for Wendell6.3
17Andre Silva77'for Jonathan Calleri90+2'6.3
28Newton
35Sabino
34P. dos Santos
12Iago Borduchi
16D. Bobadilla70'for Danielzinho6.6
43G. Santana89'for Pablo Maia6.7

Match Stats

GremioSao Paulo
48%Ball Possession52%
7Corner Kicks7
4Yellow Cards3
12Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal8
8Shots Inside Box12
4Shots Outside Box6
4Blocked Shots5
12Fouls19
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves3
421Total Passes462
364Passes Accurate392
86%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1607Elo Rating 1683
1.24Attack 1.03
1.08Defense 1.92
0%Hit Rate 42%
13.7Shots per Game 15.9
4.6Shots on Target 4.1
5.4Corners per Game 7.0
3.6Cards per Game 2.1

AI Insights

📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Sao PauloSao Paulo
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

GremioGremio4Wins · 44%
Draws00%
Sao PauloSao Paulo5Wins · 56%
2.6Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
67%3+ goals6 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A12/02/2026
Sao PauloGremio
20
Serie A17/10/2025
GremioSao Paulo
20
Serie A18/05/2025
Sao PauloGremio
21
Serie A01/12/2024
GremioSao Paulo
21
Serie A18/07/2024
Sao PauloGremio
10
Serie A21/10/2023
Sao PauloGremio
30
Serie A04/06/2023
GremioSao Paulo
21
Serie A03/12/2021
GremioSao Paulo
30
Serie A15/08/2021
Sao PauloGremio
21

Recent Form

GremioGremio
2W3D5L
06/08/2026
GremioMirassol
10
W
02/08/2026
MirassolGremio
11
D31/07/2026
GremioBolívar
01
L26/07/2026
GremioFluminense
11
D24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
L18/07/2026
MirassolGremio
21
L
12/07/2026
GremioCruzeiro
13
L
30/05/2026
GremioCorinthians
13
L
27/05/2026
GremioAtletico Torque
22
D
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
W
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1W4D5L
26/07/2026
FlamengoSao Paulo
11
D23/07/2026
Sao PauloAtletico Paranaense
12
L
01/06/2026
RemoSao Paulo
10
L
27/05/2026
Sao PauloBoston River
20
W
23/05/2026
Sao PauloBotafogo
11
D
20/05/2026
Sao PauloMillonarios
11
D
17/05/2026
FluminenseSao Paulo
21
L
14/05/2026
JuventudeSao Paulo
31
L
10/05/2026
CorinthiansSao Paulo
32
L
08/05/2026
O'HigginsSao Paulo
00
D

Referee Profile

Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento41 matches

5.00Cards per match
4.77Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
27.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento5.00
Other referees4.87

5.00 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.87).

Cards come from 13 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras32209356:22+3469WWWWD
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWLWW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense32149950:41+951LLLWW
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
7BahiaBahia321311845:40+550DLWLL
8SantosSantos3212101049:47+246DWLDW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo321271337:36+143DWWLL
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino321181339:38+141LDWDL
11BotafogoBotafogo321091344:51-739LWDLL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional328111336:40-435WLDWL
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo325111634:50-1626LDDDL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc31491832:63-3121LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3256:2269
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3250:4151
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
7BahiaBahia3245:4050
8SantosSantos3249:4746
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3237:3643
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3239:3841
11BotafogoBotafogo3244:5139
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3236:4035
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3234:5026
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3132:6321
PromotionRelegation

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About the Gremio vs Sao Paulo forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Gremio and Sao Paulo in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Sao Paulo are 9th and Gremio 17th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Gremio 35-44, Sao Paulo 37-36. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.