Gremio vs Bolívar Prediction

Gremio
0-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Bolívar
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre·P. Maza 31/07/2026
GremioGremio
0-1
Finished
BolívarBolívar

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.65
SignalGOODModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Gremio Rest
4 days
Bolívar Rest
4 days

Gremio vs Bolívar: the result in context

Bolívar beat Gremio 1-0 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 30 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Bolívar had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Gremio.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
59%1.30
X
25%5.32
2
16%9.50
Double Chance
1X
84%1.06
X2
41%3.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.99
No
56%1.74
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 1.03 = 2.81
Over 1.5
73%1.20
Over 2.5
42%1.64
Over 3.5
21%2.58
Under 1.5
27%4.40
Under 2.5
58%2.24
Under 3.5
79%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 3.8 = 8.9
Over 8.5
57%1.44
Over 9.5
44%1.73
Over 10.5
33%2.12
Under 8.5
43%2.52
Under 9.5
56%2.00
Under 10.5
67%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 3.2 = 5.7
Over 3.5
76%1.36
Over 4.5
68%1.78
Under 3.5
24%2.65
Under 4.5
32%1.88

Match Events

16'D. AsprillaAssist: Robson Matheus
46'Dodi INM. Villasanti out
46'J. Nardoni INMatheus Nascimento out
46'Pedro Gabriel INMarlon out
58'Tete INGabriel Mec out
58'F. Amuzu INJ. Enamorado out
63'Gabriel MecFoul
64'C. PavonUnsportsmanlike conduct
65'C. A. MelgarDelay of game
79'Robson Matheus INE. Saavedra out
90+2'E. NoriegaFighting
90+2'Walter KannemannUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+2'L. JustinianoFighting
90+5'D. Romero INE. Vaca Moreno out
90+5'D. Asprilla INL. Paz out
90+6'C. A. Melgar INL. Zabala out
90+8'MarlonSerious foul

Lineups

Gremio
4-1-4-1Coach: Luis Castro
Bolívar
4-2-3-1Coach: Alejandro Restrepo
Avg rating6.88
Avg rating7.24
Gabriel Grando6.912G. Grando
Cristian Pavón7.27C. Pavón
Gustavo Martins7.56G. Martins
Walter KannemannC7.04W. Kannemann
Pedro Gabriel6.254P. Gabriel
Erick Noriega7.219E. Noriega
Tetê7.521Tetê
Juan Nardoni7.35J. Nardoni
Dodi6.717Dodi
Francis Amuzu6.39F. Amuzu
Martin Braithwaite6.322M. Braithwaite
Carlos Lampe9.01C. Lampe
Jesús Sagredo7.92J. Sagredo
Santiago Echeverria6.35S. Echeverria
Xavier Arreaga7.23X. Arreaga
José Sagredo7.34J. Sagredo
Leonel JustinianoC6.723L. Justiniano
Carlos Melgar7.280C. Melgar
Dorny Romero7.277D. Romero
Robson Matheus7.514R. Matheus
Patricio Rodríguez6.317P. Rodríguez
Dairon Asprilla7.727D. Asprilla

Gremio Substitutes

23Marlon46'for Pedro Gabriel90+8'7.0
20Mathias Villasanti46'for Dodi6.6
30Matheus Nascimento46'for J. Nardoni7.0
99José Enamorado58'for F. Amuzu6.5
37Gabriel Mec58'for Tete63'6.9
1Weverton
3Wagner Leonardo
43Luis Guedes
14Marcos Rocha
2Fabián Balbuena
65Riquelme Freitas
50Zortéa

Bolívar Substitutes

13Diego Méndez
33Fernando Mena
35Escleizon Freita
16Leonardo Zabala
8Luis Paz90+5'for D. Asprilla
26Erwin Saavedra79'for Robson Matheus6.6
6Ervin Vaca90+5'for D. Romero
10Billy Arce
19John García
18Lucas Chávez
7Jhon Velásquez
9Martín Cauteruccio

Match Stats

GremioBolívar
66%Ball Possession34%
11Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards1
2Red Cards1
29Total Shots19
10Shots on Goal6
13Shots off Goal7
21Shots Inside Box7
8Shots Outside Box12
6Blocked Shots6
16Fouls9
0Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves10
546Total Passes296
478Passes Accurate220
88%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

GremioGremio
BolívarBolívar
1607Elo Rating 1702
1.24Attack 1.28
1.08Defense 2.03
0%Hit Rate 56%
13.7Shots per Game 19.1
4.6Shots on Target 5.5
5.4Corners per Game 6.3
3.6Cards per Game 4.1

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.8 goals

Game State Tendencies

GremioGremio
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.4 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BolívarBolívar
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

GremioGremio0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
BolívarBolívar1Wins · 100%
5.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Recent Form

GremioGremio
3W3D4L
26/07/2026
GremioFluminense
11
D
24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
L
18/07/2026
MirassolGremio
21
L
12/07/2026
GremioCruzeiro
13
L
30/05/2026
GremioCorinthians
13
L
27/05/2026
GremioAtletico Torque
22
D
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
W
21/05/2026
GremioPalestino
20
W
17/05/2026
BahiaGremio
11
D
15/05/2026
ConfiançaGremio
03
W
BolívarBolívar
4W3D3L
26/07/2026
BolívarReal Potosí
21
W
24/07/2026
BolívarGremio
32
W
18/07/2026
BolívarGuabirá
40
W
28/05/2026
BolívarIndepend. Rivadavia
13
L
20/05/2026
FluminenseBolívar
21
L
16/05/2026
Universitario de VintoBolívar
32
L
14/05/2026
BolívarNacional Potosí
11
D
11/05/2026
BloomingBolívar
00
D
07/05/2026
Deportivo La GuairaBolívar
11
D
03/05/2026
Gualberto Villarroel SJBolívar
12
W

Referee Profile

P. Maza190 matches

5.66Cards per match
5.26Yellow cards per match
0.41Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

P. Maza5.66
Other referees5.34

5.66 cards a match, 0.32 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.34).

Cards come from 167 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque641111:5+613DWWLW
2GremioGremio63218:3+511DWWDW
3Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra61234:10-65DLLWL
4PalestinoPalestino60331:6-53DLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque611:513
2GremioGremio68:311
3Deportivo RiestraDeportivo Riestra64:105
4PalestinoPalestino61:63
Promotion

About the Gremio vs Bolívar forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Gremio and Bolívar have met only 1 time recently, with 5.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.