Santos vs UCV Prediction

Santos
4-2
Finished
HT 1-1
UCV
Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos·C. Benitez 29/07/2026
SantosSantos
4-2
Finished
UCVUCV

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.22
SignalHIGHModel67%SurpriseMediumGap-5.3%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.50
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+10.5%
Santos Rest
3 days
UCV Rest
7 days

Santos vs UCV: the result in context

Santos beat UCV 4-2 in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 29 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Santos had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for UCV.

Referee C. Benitez averages 5.3 cards a game, stricter than 93% of the referees we track.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
77%1.22
X
18%6.00
2
5%12.00
Double Chance
1X
95%1.04
X2
23%3.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%2.20
No
56%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.29 + 0.8 = 3.09
Over 1.5
73%1.19
Over 2.5
43%1.65
Over 3.5
22%2.55
Under 1.5
27%4.40
Under 2.5
57%2.23
Under 3.5
78%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.1 = 9.5
Over 8.5
57%1.71
Over 9.5
45%2.06
Over 10.5
34%2.83
Under 8.5
43%2.04
Under 9.5
55%1.70
Under 10.5
66%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 3 = 4.8
Over 3.5
73%1.26
Over 4.5
53%1.62
Under 3.5
27%3.05
Under 4.5
47%2.20

Match Events

1'S. Sosa
29'F. SoleRoughing
39'MiguelitoAssist: Gabriel Menino
45+3'W. LugoRoughing
46'Y. Cumana IND. Carrillo out
46'Joao Ananias INLucas Verissimo out
46'Willian Arao INGabriel Bontempo out
46'Miguelito INNeymar out
56'Gabriel Barbosa
57'Goal Disallowed - offsideGabriel Barbosa
64'S. Sosa INA. Gonzalez out
64'W. Lugo IND. De Sousa out
65'Gabriel Menino
72'G. MottesAssist: E. Mosquera
73'E. Mosquera INR. Sarli out
75'A. Barreal INRony out
75'B. Rollheiser INIgor Vinicius out
82'V. Rodriguez INW. Velasquez out
90+5'RonyAssist: Gabriel Bontempo

Lineups

Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
UCV
4-4-1-1Coach: Ignacio Sasso Pacheco Daniel
Avg rating7.11
Avg rating6.56
Gabriel Brazão7.977G. Brazão
Gabriel Menino7.225G. Menino
Adonis Frías5.698A. Frías
João Paulo Ananias6.726J. Paulo Ananias
Gonzalo Escobar6.331G. Escobar
Willian Arão7.215W. Arão
Christian Oliva7.928C. Oliva
Miguelito7.230Miguelito
Benjamín Rollheiser7.232B. Rollheiser
Álvaro Barreal7.522Á. Barreal
Gabriel BarbosaC6.59G. Barbosa
Giancarlo Schiavone6.01G. Schiavone
Maicol Ruiz6.728M. Ruiz
Kendrys SilvaC5.92K. Silva
Gonzalo Mottes7.36G. Mottes
Yohan Cumana6.324Y. Cumana
Williams Lugo6.511W. Lugo
Francisco Solé6.95F. Solé
Vicente Rodríguez6.521V. Rodríguez
Edwin Mosquera6.67E. Mosquera
Samuel Sosa7.910S. Sosa
Juan Camilo Zapata6.08J. Camilo Zapata

Santos Substitutes

1Diogenes
14Luan Peres
4Lucas Veríssimo46'for Joao Ananias6.3
18Igor Vinícius75'for B. Rollheiser6.6
81Samuel Mendes
16Thaciano
49Gabriel Bontempo46'for Willian Arao8.7
5João Schmidt
21Moisés
11Rony75'for A. Barreal90+5'7.7
7Robinho Júnior
10Neymar46'for Miguelito7.2

UCV Substitutes

12Carlos González
4Williams Velásquez82'for V. Rodriguez6.7
13Edwin Peraza
3Steven Pabon
27Daniel Carrillo46'for Y. Cumana6.2
16Daniel De Sousa64'for W. Lugo6.5
30Alexander Gonzalez64'for S. Sosa6.5
18Roberto Sarli73'for E. Mosquera6.5

Match Stats

SantosUCV
58%Ball Possession42%
6Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards2
25Total Shots14
9Shots on Goal7
12Shots off Goal6
19Shots Inside Box6
6Shots Outside Box8
4Blocked Shots1
8Fouls7
5Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves5
482Total Passes346
417Passes Accurate275
87%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
UCVUCV
1774Elo Rating 1520
1.77Attack 1.85
1.58Defense 1.25
58%Hit Rate 41%
12.9Shots per Game -
4.0Shots on Target -
3.7Corners per Game -
3.6Cards per Game -

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+255 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.09 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
UCVUCV
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

SantosSantos1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
UCVUCV0Wins · 0%
5.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

Recent Form

SantosSantos
5W2D3L
25/07/2026
SantosChapecoense-sc
22
D
22/07/2026
UCVSantos
14
W
17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
L
31/05/2026
SantosVitoria
31
W
27/05/2026
SantosDeportivo Cuenca
30
W
24/05/2026
GremioSantos
32
L
21/05/2026
SantosSan Lorenzo
22
D
17/05/2026
SantosCoritiba
03
L
14/05/2026
CoritibaSantos
02
W
10/05/2026
SantosRB Bragantino
20
W
UCVUCV
3W3D4L
22/07/2026
UCVSantos
14
L
30/05/2026
UCVPortuguesa FC
23
L
28/05/2026
Libertad AsuncionUCV
01
W
24/05/2026
Puerto CabelloUCV
21
L
20/05/2026
Rosario CentralUCV
40
L
16/05/2026
Deportivo La GuairaUCV
00
D
13/05/2026
UCVDeportivo La Guaira
11
D
10/05/2026
UCVPuerto Cabello
31
W
06/05/2026
UCVIndependiente del Valle
20
W
03/05/2026
Portuguesa FCUCV
11
D

Referee Profile

C. Benitez14 matches analysed

5.32Cards per match
4.99Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
23.5Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 93% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded
Deportivo Recoleta
Seeded
Sao Paulo
Seeded
Atletico-MG
Seeded
Atletico Torque
Seeded
Macara
Seeded
Olimpia
Seeded
Botafogo
Seeded
River Plate
Seeded

League Table

CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta61506:5+18WDDDD
2SantosSantos61418:6+27WDDDD
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo61416:5+17LDDDW
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca61323:7-46LDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Deportivo RecoletaDeportivo Recoleta66:58
2SantosSantos68:67
3San LorenzoSan Lorenzo66:57
4Deportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca63:76
Promotion

About the Santos vs UCV forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Sudamericana

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Santos and UCV have met only 1 time recently, with 5.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.