Corinthians vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction

Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo·Jesus Valenzuela 17/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseHighGap-4.3%
Corinthians Rest
3 days
Estudiantes L.P. Rest
4 days

Corinthians vs Estudiantes L.P.: the result in context

Estudiantes L.P. beat Corinthians 1-0 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 17 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Estudiantes L.P. had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Corinthians.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 1.3 goals a game. Referee Jesus Valenzuela averages 4.19 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.06
X
31%2.92
2
18%4.35
Double Chance
1X
82%1.20
X2
49%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.55
No
55%1.44
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.38 + 0.91 = 2.29
Over 1.5
69%1.73
Over 2.5
37%3.20
Over 3.5
19%6.90
Under 1.5
31%2.12
Under 2.5
63%1.33
Under 3.5
81%1.08
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 3.1 = 8
Over 8.5
54%1.76
Over 9.5
42%2.25
Over 10.5
32%3.00
Under 8.5
46%1.95
Under 9.5
58%1.55
Under 10.5
68%1.30
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.6 = 4.8
Over 3.5
71%1.13
Over 4.5
53%1.45
Under 3.5
29%5.50
Under 4.5
47%2.85

Match Events

4'Breno BidonFoul
41'Tiago Tomas PalaciosFoul
45'Leandro Gonzalez PirezFoul
64'Joaquín Correa INFabricio Pérez out
69'André Carrillo INAndré out
76'Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez INGabriel Neves out
76'JoaquĂ­n Tobio Burgos INEdwuin Cetre out
87'Alexis CastroAssist: Tiago Tomas Palacios
90+1'Allan INGui NegĂŁo out
90+1'Gabriel Paulista INPedro Raul out
90+1'Breno Bidon INJesse Lingard out
90+1'Eros Nazareno Mancuso INEric Meza out
90+1'Fabricio Pérez INRamiro Funes Mori out
90+7'Rodrigo GarroDissent
90+7'Penalty confirmedMatheus Bidu
90+11'Memphis Depay(Penalty missed)

Lineups

Corinthians
4-2-3-1Coach: Fernando Diniz
Estudiantes L.P.
4-4-2Coach: Alexander Medina
Avg rating6.37
Avg rating6.69
Hugo Souza5.61H. Souza
Matheuzinho6.92Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista6.93G. Paulista
Gustavo Henrique6.713G. Henrique
Matheus Bidu7.021M. Bidu
Allan6.329Allan
A. Carrillo6.619A. Carrillo
Kaio César6.337K. César
R. Garro6.28R. Garro
Breno6.17Breno
M. Depay5.910M. Depay
F. Muslera6.916F. Muslera
E. Mancuso6.440E. Mancuso
S. Núñez7.24S. Núñez
L. González6.514L. González
T. Palacios7.024T. Palacios
B. Gallego6.131B. Gallego
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi6.721L. Ezequiel Piovi
A. Castro7.922A. Castro
J. Burgos6.817J. Burgos
J. Correa6.332J. Correa
G. Carrillo6.49G. Carrillo

Corinthians Substitutes

18Pedro Raul90+1'for Gabriel Paulista
26F. Angileri
77J. Lingard90+1'for Breno Bidon
20P. Milans
23Matheus Pereira
35Charles
49Andre69'for André Carrillo6.2
56Guilherme Inácio90+1'for Allan
61Dieguinho
55I. Machado
4JoĂŁo Pedro
51KauĂŞ Camargo

Estudiantes L.P. Substitutes

18E. Cetré76'for Joaquín Tobio Burgos6.6
3Máximo Desábato
39J. ElĂ­as
26R. Funes Mori90+1'replaced by Fabricio Pérez
19A. Gaich
1F. Iacovich
20E. Meza90+1'for Eros Nazareno Mancuso
8G. Neves76'for Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez6.5
36J. Pereyra
29F. Pérez Escudero64'for Joaquín Correa90+1'for Ramiro Funes Mori6.6
7J. Sosa
28B. Aguirre

Match Stats

CorinthiansEstudiantes L.P.
49%Ball Possession51%
3Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
9Total Shots6
2Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal4
3Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots0
11Fouls22
3Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves2
469Total Passes355
387Passes Accurate281
20Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

CorinthiansCorinthians
Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
1607Elo Rating 1691
0.86Attack 0.98
0.79Defense 2.21
0%Hit Rate 14%
17.3Shots per Game 13.6
5.1Shots on Target 4.1
7.7Corners per Game 4.8
2.9Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

CorinthiansCorinthians
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)
Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
  • Tied at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

CorinthiansCorinthians1Wins · 34%
Draws133%
Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.1Wins · 33%
1.3Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
0%3+ goals0 of 3

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores10/09/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Corinthians
11
CONMEBOL Sudamericana30/08/2023
Estudiantes L.P.Corinthians
2130
CONMEBOL Sudamericana23/08/2023
CorinthiansEstudiantes L.P.
10

Referee Profile

Jesus Valenzuela43 matches

4.19Cards per match
4.02Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jesus Valenzuela4.19
Other referees4.85

4.19 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.85).

Cards come from 42 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo651014:2+1216WWWDW
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.62316:5+19WLDDW
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin62136:11-57LWLWL
4CuscoCusco60154:12-81LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo614:216
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.66:59
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin66:117
4CuscoCusco64:121

Group E

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CorinthiansCorinthians63218:4+411LDDWW
2PlatensePlatense63128:7+110WLDWW
3Santa FeSanta Fe62226:7-18WWDLL
4PenarolPenarol60334:8-43LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CorinthiansCorinthians68:411
2PlatensePlatense68:710
3Santa FeSanta Fe66:78
4PenarolPenarol64:83

About the Corinthians vs Estudiantes L.P. forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.4 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.