Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction

Corinthians
1-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Cruzeiro
Neo Química Arena, Sao Paulo·Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil 17/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.50
SignalHIGHModel42%SurpriseHighGap+10.6%
Corinthians Rest
2 days
Cruzeiro Rest
3 days

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro: result, form and history

Cruzeiro beat Corinthians 2-1 in the Serie A on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.26
X
27%2.98
2
32%3.40
Double Chance
1X
68%1.30
X2
59%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%2.08
No
48%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 1.03 = 2.32
Over 1.5
73%1.50
Over 2.5
44%2.56
Over 3.5
22%5.00
Under 1.5
27%2.56
Under 2.5
56%1.50
Under 3.5
78%1.15
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.1 = 9.4
Over 8.5
57%1.47
Over 9.5
45%1.79
Over 10.5
33%2.27
Under 8.5
43%2.46
Under 9.5
55%1.94
Under 10.5
67%1.55
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 3.1 = 5.6
Over 3.5
78%1.13
Over 4.5
64%1.29
Under 3.5
22%5.30
Under 4.5
36%3.00

Match Events

36'Bruno Rodrigues
46'Breno Bidon INJ. Lingard out
52'Felipe MoraisHolding
54'Gabriel Paulista INJoao Pedro out
58'Ze Lucas INGerson out
58'Kaio Jorge INMatheus Pereira out
58'Felipe Morais INK. Arroyo out
58'Gustavo Henrique
67'Jonathan JesusTripping
70'Pedro Raul INGui Negao out
70'Bruno Rodrigues INL. Rodriguez out
71'Kaio Cesar INDieguinho out
79'J. Costa INWanderson out
80'A. Carrillo INM. Pereira out
82'WandersonAssist: L. Rodriguez
90'L. VillalbaHolding
90'L. RodriguezUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+1'R. Garro

Lineups

Corinthians
4-2-3-1Coach: Fernando Diniz
Cruzeiro
4-4-2Coach: Jorge Artur
Avg rating6.83
Avg rating6.68
Hugo Souza6.91H. Souza
Matheuzinho6.92Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista6.73G. Paulista
Gustavo Henrique7.613G. Henrique
Matheus Bidu6.321M. Bidu
André Carrillo7.319A. Carrillo
Allan6.929Allan
Kaio César7.237K. César
Rodrigo GarroC7.08R. Garro
Breno Bidon6.97B. Bidon
Pedro Raul6.518P. Raul
Otávio Costa6.581O. Costa
Fagner6.923Fagner
João Marcelo7.343J. Marcelo
Jonathan Jesus6.934J. Jesus
Lucas Villalba6.325L. Villalba
João Costa6.267J. Costa
Zé Lucas6.65Z. Lucas
Lucas RomeroC7.029L. Romero
Felipe Morais6.338F. Morais
Bruno Rodrigues6.99B. Rodrigues
Kaio Jorge6.719K. Jorge

Corinthians Substitutes

51Kauê
20Pedro Milans
4João Pedro Tchoca54'for Gabriel Paulista7.2
26Fabrizio Angileri
55Iago Machado
23Matheus Pereira80'for A. Carrillo6.7
14Raniele
80Alex Santana
35Charles
61Dieguinho71'for Kaio Cesar6.3
77Jesse Lingard46'for Breno Bidon6.2
56Gui Negão70'for Pedro Raul6.6

Cruzeiro Substitutes

51Vitor Lamounier Rego
15Fabrício Bruno
2Kauã Moraes
27Gabriel Rojas
12William Furtado
8Gerson58'for Ze Lucas6.6
99Keny Arroyo58'for Felipe Morais6.9
11Marquinhos
10Matheus Pereira58'for Kaio Jorge6.2
94Wanderson79'for J. Costa82'7.3
16Lucas Silva
97Luciano Rodríguez70'for Bruno Rodrigues90'6.3

Match Stats

CorinthiansCruzeiro
53%Ball Possession47%
3Corner Kicks8
1Yellow Cards4
20Total Shots15
6Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal3
11Shots Inside Box10
9Shots Outside Box5
9Blocked Shots6
16Fouls14
0Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves5
457Total Passes410
393Passes Accurate337
86%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

CorinthiansCorinthians
CruzeiroCruzeiro
1607Elo Rating 1781
0.86Attack 2.33
0.79Defense 1.62
0%Hit Rate 81%
17.3Shots per Game 15.9
5.1Shots on Target 7.2
7.7Corners per Game 6.7
2.9Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CorinthiansCorinthians
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)
CruzeiroCruzeiro
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

CorinthiansCorinthians3Wins · 34%
Draws333%
CruzeiroCruzeiro3Wins · 33%
2.2Avg Goals
56%Both teams scored5 of 9
56%3+ goals5 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A26/02/2026
CruzeiroCorinthians
11
Copa Do Brasil14/12/2025
CorinthiansCruzeiro
5142
Copa Do Brasil11/12/2025
CruzeiroCorinthians
01
Serie A24/11/2025
CruzeiroCorinthians
30
Serie A24/07/2025
CorinthiansCruzeiro
00
Serie A20/11/2024
CorinthiansCruzeiro
21
Serie A07/07/2024
CruzeiroCorinthians
30
Serie A20/08/2023
CruzeiroCorinthians
11
Serie A16/04/2023
CorinthiansCruzeiro
21

Recent Form

Referee Profile

Davi de Oliveira Lacerda120 matches

5.16Cards per match
4.99Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Davi de Oliveira Lacerda5.16
Other referees5.16

5.16 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.16).

Cards come from 98 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo33227468:28+4073WWWWD
2PalmeirasPalmeiras332010356:22+3470DWWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro331761052:46+657WWWLW
4FluminenseFluminense33159952:42+1054WLLLW
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense33159950:40+1054LDLWD
6BahiaBahia331411848:42+653WDLWL
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG331481144:39+550LLWWD
8SantosSantos3312111049:47+247DDWLD
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino331281342:38+444WLDWD
10Sao PauloSao Paulo331271439:39043LDWWL
11BotafogoBotafogo331091445:53-839LLWDL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama321081440:49-938LWLDW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15GremioGremio339101437:44-737WWLDD
16MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
17InternacionalInternacional338111437:42-535LWLDW
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo336111636:51-1529WLDDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc32491932:66-3421LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3368:2873
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3356:2270
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3352:4657
4FluminenseFluminense3352:4254
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3350:4054
6BahiaBahia3348:4253
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3344:3950
8SantosSantos3349:4747
9RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3342:3844
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3339:3943
11BotafogoBotafogo3345:5339
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3240:4938
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15GremioGremio3337:4437
16MirassolMirassol3237:4537
17InternacionalInternacional3337:4235
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3336:5129
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3232:6621
PromotionRelegation

About the Corinthians vs Cruzeiro forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Corinthians and Cruzeiro in the Serie A table

The table shows a wide gap: Cruzeiro are 3rd in the Serie A, while Corinthians sit 18th, 24 points behind. League goal record so far: Corinthians 34-42, Cruzeiro 52-46. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.