Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction

Chapecoense-sc
3-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Bahia
Arena Condá, Chapecó·Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos, Brazil 16/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.30
SignalHIGHModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+6.0%
Chapecoense-sc Rest
7 days
Bahia Rest
6 days

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: the result in context

Chapecoense-sc and Bahia drew 3-3 in the Serie A on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Bahia have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%3.55
X
25%3.42
2
38%2.05
Double Chance
1X
62%1.73
X2
64%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.70
No
48%2.04
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.18 = 2.43
Over 1.5
75%1.26
Over 2.5
47%1.88
Over 3.5
24%3.20
Under 1.5
25%3.55
Under 2.5
53%1.91
Under 3.5
76%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.9 = 9.6
Over 8.5
57%1.32
Over 9.5
46%1.60
Over 10.5
33%1.96
Under 8.5
43%3.04
Under 9.5
54%2.15
Under 10.5
67%1.77
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.5
63%1.38
Over 4.5
42%1.91
Under 3.5
37%2.80
Under 4.5
58%1.80

Match Events

13'A. Veliz(Penalty)
19'Giovanni AugustoAssist: Yago Felipe
42'KauanOG
46'K. Ramirez INTulio out
46'Heitor INEverton out
46'Bruno Matias INF. Rossi out
48'MarcinhoAssist: Giovanni Augusto
65'Nicolas AcevedoAssist: Jean Lucas
66'R. Gomez INCaio Alexandre out
66'Jean Lucas INErick out
67'Kaue Junior INM. Sanabria out
67'Luciano Juba INZe Guilherme out
71'TulioAssist: Giovanni Augusto
78'Yago Felipe INDavid Antunes out
78'Fernando INBruno Pacheco out
83'Rodrigo INMichel Araujo out
84'M. SanabriaHolding
89'Camilo ReijersFoul
90+2'Erick

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc
4-3-3Coach: Lacerda Rafael
Bahia
3-1-4-2Coach: Ceni Rogerio
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating6.73
Anderson6.998Anderson
Heitor5.35Heitor
Kauan6.021Kauan
Eduardo DomaC6.23E. Doma
Fernando6.212Fernando
Yago Felipe6.288Y. Felipe
Camilo6.927Camilo
Bruno Matias6.316B. Matias
Kevin Ramírez6.994K. Ramírez
Giovanni Augusto9.910G. Augusto
Marcinho7.37Marcinho
Ronaldo5.71Ronaldo
Román Gómez6.631R. Gómez
David Duarte6.333D. Duarte
Santiago Ramos Mingo7.021S. Ramos Mingo
Nicolás AcevedoC8.75N. Acevedo
Kauê Furquim6.557K. Furquim
Jean Lucas6.66J. Lucas
Luciano Juba6.246L. Juba
Rodrigo Nestor7.211R. Nestor
Alejo Véliz6.69A. Véliz
Erick Pulga7.316E. Pulga

Chapecoense-sc Substitutes

26Everton46'for Heitor6.5
9Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira46'for K. Ramirez71'7.3
29Franco Rossi46'for Bruno Matias6.5
91Bruno Pacheco78'for Fernando6.9
19David Antunes78'for Yago Felipe6.6
30Matheus
6Mancha
25Victor Caetano
15Rafael Thyere
70Rubens Tadeu
97Ênio
18Neto Pessoa

Bahia Substitutes

8Caio Alexandre66'for R. Gomez6.5
14Erick66'for Jean Lucas90+2'6.5
66José Guilherme67'for Luciano Juba6.7
23Mateo Sanabria67'for Kaue Junior84'6.7
15Michel Araújo83'for Rodrigo6.6
17Guido Herrera
4Kanu
3Marco Moreno
44Marcos Victor
99Cristian Olivera
27Everaldo
12Willian José

Match Stats

Chapecoense-scBahia
35%Ball Possession65%
3Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots19
3Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal11
9Shots Inside Box12
3Shots Outside Box7
5Blocked Shots4
16Fouls9
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves0
283Total Passes555
228Passes Accurate506
81%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
BahiaBahia
1508Elo Rating 1706
0.54Attack 0.68
0.59Defense 1.52
0%Hit Rate 37%
12.4Shots per Game 12.1
2.8Shots on Target 3.2
4.5Corners per Game 4.5
2.0Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
  • No tendency data available
BahiaBahia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.5 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc2Wins · 40%
Draws00%
BahiaBahia3Wins · 60%
2.4Avg Goals
20%Both teams scored1 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Serie A18/07/2026
BahiaChapecoense-sc
20
Serie B01/10/2022
Chapecoense-scBahia
31
Serie B15/06/2022
BahiaChapecoense-sc
01
Serie A25/10/2021
BahiaChapecoense-sc
30
Serie A04/07/2021
Chapecoense-scBahia
02

Recent Form

BahiaBahia
2W5D3L
09/08/2026
BahiaVasco DA Gama
00
D
30/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
00
D
26/07/2026
BahiaCorinthians
11
D
22/07/2026
Atletico-MGBahia
11
D
18/07/2026
BahiaChapecoense-sc
20
W
12/07/2026
FluminenseBahia
20
L
30/05/2026
BahiaBotafogo
21
W
26/05/2026
CoritibaBahia
32
L
17/05/2026
BahiaGremio
11
D
14/05/2026
RemoBahia
21
L

Referee Profile

Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos34 matches

4.57Cards per match
4.39Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
24.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos4.57
Other referees4.85

4.57 cards a match, 0.28 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.85).

Cards come from 23 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo32217464:27+3770WWWDW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras32209356:22+3469WWWWD
3CruzeiroCruzeiro321661051:46+554WWLWW
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254DLWDW
5FluminenseFluminense32149950:41+951LLLWW
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG321481044:38+650LWWDW
7BahiaBahia321311845:40+550DLWLL
8SantosSantos3212101049:47+246DWLDW
9Sao PauloSao Paulo321271337:36+143DWWLL
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino321181339:38+141LDWDL
11BotafogoBotafogo321091344:51-739LWDLL
12CoritibaCoritiba321091338:50-1239LLDLL
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama311081339:45-638WLDWW
14VitoriaVitoria321081435:46-1138DDLWL
15MirassolMirassol329101337:45-837DWLDW
16InternacionalInternacional328111336:40-435WLDWL
17GremioGremio328101435:44-934WLDDD
18CorinthiansCorinthians32891534:42-833LDLLL
19RemoRemo325111634:50-1626LDDDL
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc31491832:63-3121LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3264:2770
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3256:2269
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3251:4654
4Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3250:3854
5FluminenseFluminense3250:4151
6Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3244:3850
7BahiaBahia3245:4050
8SantosSantos3249:4746
9Sao PauloSao Paulo3237:3643
10RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3239:3841
11BotafogoBotafogo3244:5139
12CoritibaCoritiba3238:5039
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3139:4538
14VitoriaVitoria3235:4638
15MirassolMirassol3237:4537
16InternacionalInternacional3236:4035
17GremioGremio3235:4434
18CorinthiansCorinthians3234:4233
19RemoRemo3234:5026
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3132:6321
PromotionRelegation

About the Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Chapecoense-sc and Bahia in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Bahia are 7th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, 29 points apart. League goal record so far: Chapecoense-sc 32-63, Bahia 45-40. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.