Platense vs Fluminense Prediction

Platense
2-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Fluminense
16/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.4 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.44
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+3.4%
Platense Rest
3 days
Fluminense Rest
3 days

Platense vs Fluminense: the result in context

Platense beat Fluminense 2-1 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 15 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Fluminense had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Platense.

Platense tend to win more corners, 8.6 a game to 3.9 for Fluminense.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
30%2.75
X
32%2.90
2
38%2.80
Double Chance
1X
62%1.42
X2
70%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.20
No
55%1.60
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.96 + 1.12 = 2.08
Over 1.5
69%1.57
Over 2.5
37%2.85
Over 3.5
19%5.50
Under 1.5
31%2.34
Under 2.5
63%1.40
Under 3.5
81%1.12
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.6 = 9.1
Over 8.5
56%1.86
Over 9.5
44%2.41
Over 10.5
33%3.30
Under 8.5
44%1.86
Under 9.5
56%1.48
Under 10.5
67%1.26
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.4 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%1.32
Over 4.5
49%1.65
Under 3.5
33%3.25
Under 4.5
51%2.15

Match Events

11'Julian MillanFoul
13'Ignacio VazquezFoul
30'Guido Mainero
45+2'Bruno Christian SepulvedaAssist: Guido Mainero
57'AgustĂ­n CanobbioAssist: Hulk
61'Agustin LagosFoul
63'Paulo Henrique Chagas de LimaFoul
72'Yeferson Soteldo INKevin Serna out
75'Bautista Merlini INFranco Zapiola Yamartino out
79'Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima INLuciano Acosta out
80'Guido Mainero INJuan Carlos Gauto out
90+3'Hércules Pereira do Nascimento INOtávio Henrique Passos Santos out
90+3'AgustĂ­n Canobbio INGuilherme Arana out
90+3'Hulk INRodrigo Castillo out
90+5'Juan Carlos GautoFoul

Lineups

Platense
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Palermo
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Coach: MarcĂŁo
Avg rating6.58
Avg rating6.46
J. Cozzani6.230J. Cozzani
J. Saborido6.125J. Saborido
I. Vázquez6.113I. Vázquez
M. Mendia6.534M. Mendia
A. Lagos6.14A. Lagos
P. Ferreira6.326P. Ferreira
M. Barrios7.124M. Barrios
G. Mainero7.77G. Mainero
B. Merlini6.418B. Merlini
N. Retamar6.243N. Retamar
B. SepĂşlveda7.979B. SepĂşlveda
Fábio6.71Fábio
Guga6.823Guga
Thiago Silva6.83T. Silva
J. Millán6.329J. Millán
RenĂŞ6.36RenĂŞ
Hércules5.735Hércules
Martinelli6.18Martinelli
A. Canobbio7.717A. Canobbio
PH Ganso5.910P. Ganso
Y. Soteldo6.130Y. Soteldo
Hulk7.27Hulk

Platense Substitutes

33J. Gauto80'for Guido Mainero90+5'6.5
15M. Amarfil
5I. GĂłmez
38Celías Adán Ingenthron
99G. Lencina
21A. Lotti
11N. LĂłpez
6E. Raggio
3T. Silva
22N. Sumavil
16G. Togni
10F. Zapiola75'for Bautista Merlini6.6

Fluminense Substitutes

13Guilherme Arana90+3'for AgustĂ­n Canobbio
19R. Castillo90+3'for Hulk
46Julio Fidelis
94Otávio90+3'for Hércules Pereira do Nascimento
21Igor Rabello
44Jemmes
11J. Savarino
90K. Serna72'for Yeferson Soteldo6.4
28Riquelme
2Samuel Xavier
27Marcelo
32L. Acosta79'for Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima6.0

Match Stats

PlatenseFluminense
56%Ball Possession44%
12Corner Kicks0
3Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal2
8Shots off Goal4
10Shots Inside Box4
6Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots1
19Fouls10
1Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves4
399Total Passes363
316Passes Accurate285
9Free Kicks19

Team Comparison

PlatensePlatense
FluminenseFluminense
1608Elo Rating 1742
1.21Attack 1.26
1.98Defense 1.99
41%Hit Rate 41%
17.5Shots per Game 10.0
5.0Shots on Target 3.5
8.6Corners per Game 3.9
1.9Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PlatensePlatense
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
FluminenseFluminense
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group C

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independ. RivadaviaIndepend. Rivadavia651015:6+916WWDWW
2FluminenseFluminense62227:708WWDLL
3BolĂ­varBolĂ­var61236:8-25LLDWD
4Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira60336:13-73LLDLD

Group E

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CorinthiansCorinthians63218:4+411LDDWW
2PlatensePlatense63128:7+110WLDWW
3Santa FeSanta Fe62226:7-18WWDLL
4PenarolPenarol60334:8-43LDDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1CorinthiansCorinthians68:411
2PlatensePlatense68:710
3Santa FeSanta Fe66:78
4PenarolPenarol64:83

About the Platense vs Fluminense forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.4 out of 10 by our context model. Platense and Fluminense have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.